WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 26 Jun 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2026 · WYS EDITION 030

Data as of Thursday 25 June 2026 close · Generated 26 June 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Nickel ▼ Bearish

Indonesia to boost nickel mine output

Indonesia plans significant rise in nickel-mine production later this year, reversing earlier quota tightening. This provides relief to local smelters but pressures global prices, with LME futures dropping up to 2.7%.

SUPPLY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

US sanctions close Canada's only cobalt refinery

US sanctions have shut down Canada's sole cobalt refinery, tightening supply in a market already dominated by DRC production. Prices remained flat at ~$56,290/t amid broader EV demand discussions.

PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish

China lithium prices slide on CATL restart chatter

Lithium prices in China declined amid reports of potential restarts at major producer CATL facilities. This follows recent demand signals but points to near-term oversupply concerns.

SUPPLY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

Aclara secures environmental approval for Chile REE project

Aclara Resources received environmental OK for its rare earths project in Chile on June 23. This advances new non-Chinese supply amid ongoing export controls and geopolitical tensions.

POLICY Uranium ▲ Bullish

US launches $17.5B loan program for nuclear supply chain

US government announced major financing to accelerate nuclear buildout and uranium supply. Additional project approvals, including EnCore's South Dakota mine, signal strong policy support for domestic production.

POLICY Gallium ▲ Bullish

China tightens critical minerals grip; EU faces gallium shortages

Ongoing Chinese export restrictions on gallium and germanium are creating supply gaps for the EU, prompting global scramble for alternatives. This follows prior curbs and heightens price and availability risks.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight macro showed the USD Index easing 0.17% to 101.44 while AUD/USD rose 0.19%, providing modest support for USD-priced commodities with copper lifting 3.21% to 6.1335 USD/lb and uranium adding 0.29% to 85.75 USD/lb. Lithium carbonate fell 0.63% to 157500 CNY/t on thin volumes with all other critical minerals prices unchanged. No Tier 1 mine outages, export bans or demand shocks occurred in the June 25-26 window. ASX-exposed names such as those tied to Chilean copper output via Anglo American and Codelco integration plans saw no immediate production revisions while MP Materials remains flagged under China’s June 22 dual-use export controls with no fresh overnight impact.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate traded down 0.63% to 157500 CNY/t with no fresh SMM or Fastmarkets spot moves overnight.

EVNo new EV sales releases or offtake agreements from CATL, BYD or LG surfaced in the overnight window.

NICKELNickel held flat at 17105 USD/t with zero LME inventory or smelter news reported.

GIGAFACTORYNo gigafactory announcements or capacity updates from Panasonic or Samsung SDI overnight.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINAChina’s June 22 dual-use export controls on MP Materials and nine other US-linked firms remain in force with no new licence changes overnight.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide stayed at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese domestic price adjustments from Antaike.

EXPORTNo additional MOFCOM rare earth export quota revisions were issued in the last 12 hours.

SUPPLYMP Materials continues to face narrow Chinese export restrictions without broader supply curtailment signals.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium held at 279.66 USD/kg with no new Chinese export licence adjustments overnight.

GERMANIUMGermanium remained at 2673.66 USD/kg absent fresh policy moves from MIIT.

ANTIMONYAntimony traded flat at 13879.06 USD/t with ongoing prior export limit commentary but no overnight updates.

POLICYSouth African manganese and chrome local processing rules predate the overnight period and saw no fresh developments.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index decline of 0.17% to 101.44 lent minor support to copper and uranium pricing.

CHINAChina PMI data release was absent from the overnight window.

TRADENo new tariffs or trade policy shifts affecting critical minerals were announced overnight.

ENERGYUranium price rose 0.29% to 85.75 USD/lb on thin volumes with no contracting news.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.380	▼ 4.95%	▼ 13.09%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	64.140	▼ 2.61%	▼ 9.39%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.760	▼ 7.37%	▼ 14.15%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.640	▼ 3.66%	▼ 12.88%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	18.700	▼ 3.31%	▲ 4.00%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.330	▼ 7.04%	▼ 8.33%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.740	▲ 0.41%	▼ 5.25%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.060	▼ 5.36%	▼ 12.40%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.970	▼ 3.56%	▼ 9.15%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.245	▼ 5.77%	▼ 10.91%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.180	▼ 5.40%	▼ 9.23%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.048	▼ 9.43%	▼ 15.79%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.044	▼ 4.35%	▼ 12.00%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.360	▼ 7.69%	▼ 15.29%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	3.120	▼ 4.00%	▼ 10.34%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.044	▼ 4.35%	▼ 24.14%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.505	▼ 5.61%	▲ 6.32%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.395	▼ 4.82%	▼ 7.06%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.430	▼ 6.52%	▼ 12.24%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.600	▼ 5.51%	▼ 8.40%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▲ 0.41%

MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron▲ 2.61%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 3.31%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 3.56%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▲ 3.66%

▼ Top Losers

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 9.43%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▼ 7.69%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 7.37%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 7.04%

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▼ 6.52%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	55.620	▼ 1.57%	▼ 4.53%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.420	▼ 4.06%	▼ 7.80%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	103.580	▼ 2.87%	▼ 3.21%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	95.110	▲ 1.15%	▼ 10.18%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.850	▼ 2.28%	▼ 15.94%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	73.110	▼ 3.27%	▼ 12.20%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	95.350	▲ 1.39%	▼ 9.88%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	62.800	▲ 1.55%	▼ 10.45%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.120	▲ 1.89%	▼ 5.50%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 1.89%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 1.55%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 1.39%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 1.15%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 1.57%

▼ Top Losers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 4.06%

SQMSQMLithium▼ 3.27%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 2.87%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 2.28%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 1.57%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	33.550	▲ 2.16%	▼ 18.67%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	37.440	▲ 1.88%	▼ 17.02%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	13.060	▲ 1.16%	▼ 15.03%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.690	▼ 4.53%	▼ 8.06%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.370	▼ 3.10%	▼ 6.62%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 2.16%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 1.88%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.16%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 3.10%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 4.53%

▼ Top Losers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 4.53%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 3.10%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.16%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 1.88%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 2.16%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	15.500	▼ 7.52%	▼ 22.42%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.010	▼ 6.28%	▼ 28.03%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.750	▼ 3.61%	▼ 17.99%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.090	▼ 0.91%	▼ 6.84%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.91%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 3.61%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 6.28%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 7.52%

▼ Top Losers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 7.52%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 6.28%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 3.61%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.91%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.21%

Best

Spodumene SC6

0.00%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-0.63%

Lithium carbonate declined 0.63% while nickel and cobalt stayed flat with no gigafactory or EV demand releases overnight.

Rare Earths

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide held steady at 176 USD/kg as China’s targeted export controls on MP Materials continue without fresh overnight policy moves.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

-0.09%

Best

Indium

-0.09%

Worst

Indium

-0.09%

Gallium, germanium and antimony prices were unchanged with no new Chinese export controls or quotas issued in the overnight window.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.88%

Best

Nat. Gas

+1.46%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.29%

Uranium rose 0.29% to 85.75 USD/lb on limited spot activity with no new mine or contracting developments reported.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+3.21%

Best

Copper

+3.21%

Worst

Copper

+3.21%

Copper jumped 3.21% to 6.1335 USD/lb supported by softer USD while LME inventory data remained unreleased overnight.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.84%

Best

Brent Crude

+1.75%

Worst

Silver

-0.35%

Oil and gas price moves were not flagged in the overnight data, leaving the energy transition narrative unchanged.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

GEOMP Materials exposure to ongoing Chinese dual-use export restrictions requires daily licence monitoring.

SUPPLYWatch for any follow-on MIIT actions on rare earth or gallium export quotas in coming sessions.

MACRONext China industrial output or PMI print could shift lithium and copper demand expectations.

POLICYSouth African chrome and manganese local processing rules remain a background supply risk factor.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.