While You Slept/Critical Minerals archive← Tue 30 Jun 2026Thu 2 Jul 2026 →Free by email
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While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition  ·  AI Buildout  ·  The Materials That Power Both
PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗  ·  WEDNESDAY 1 JULY 2026  ·  WYS EDITION 033
Data as of  Tuesday 30 June 2026 close  ·  Generated  1 July 2026  7:00 AM AEST  ·  S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017
Commodity Prices
Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals
↳ Background Context
Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite
Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets
Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium
Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum
Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron
Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.
Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy
Supply & Demand Signals
Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals
SUPPLY Lithium ▼ Bearish
CATL Jianxiawo Mine Resumes After 10-Month Halt
CATL's major Jiangxi lepidolite mine secured its safety production license on June 29 and will restart operations following regulatory delays tied to new Mineral Resources Law standards. The resumption of this key domestic supplier, which accounts for significant Chinese lepidolite output, is expected to ease near-term supply tightness in the lithium carbonate market.
SUPPLY Lithium ● Neutral
Savannah Lithium Project Resumes Work in Portugal
Savannah Resources will restart fieldwork on its Barroso lithium project after Portugal's government lifted a three-week court-ordered suspension on June 29, declaring the project of national and European significance. The move supports European efforts to secure domestic lithium supply chains for EV batteries.
POLICY Nickel ▼ Bearish
Indonesia Signals Higher 2026 Nickel Mining Quotas
Indonesia's Energy & Mineral Resources Ministry privately indicated plans to raise RKAB mining quotas to 360 million tonnes in 2026 from 260 million tonnes, potentially increasing global nickel ore supply. Nickel spot prices have already declined significantly month-over-month to around USD 16,733/t as of June 29.
POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish
China Maintains Rare Earth Export Restrictions
China's exports of controlled rare earth compounds and metals to the US fell to zero in May 2026 following April 2025 export controls, with limited recovery in prior months. Ongoing restrictions continue to constrain global supply of key magnet materials amid geopolitical tensions.
PRICE Lithium ● Neutral
Lithium Carbonate Price Rises on June 30
Lithium prices climbed 3.13% to 156,500 CNY/t on June 30 amid mixed supply signals, though down 12.57% over the past month. The modest rebound follows news of major mine resumptions but reflects ongoing volatility in battery raw materials.
Analysis
Overnight Briefing
Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight USD Index at 101.16 and CNY/USD at 6.7846 produced no material shift in critical minerals pricing, yet lithium carbonate rose 3.13% to 156500 CNY/t and lithium hydroxide 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t on supply news alone. Copper at 6.2485 USD/lb gained 2.48% while uranium slipped 0.18% to 85.1 USD/lb, confirming that macro variables remained secondary to physical curtailments. Nickel and cobalt prices stayed flat at 16550 USD/t and 56290 USD/t respectively, reflecting the market’s wait for restart timelines. Sinomine’s July 11 maintenance halt on the 30000–35000 tpa high-purity lithium salt line at Jiangxi directly cuts battery-grade carbonate and hydroxide output, while Sherritt’s Fort Saskatchewan refinery has idled its 38200 t combined nickel-cobalt capacity after Moa mixed-sulphide feed exhaustion with no restart date. These two feedstock-driven shutdowns represent the only quantified supply reductions in the 24-hour window and are already lifting near-term lithium contract premiums. ASX-listed lithium developers with Chinese offtake exposure face immediate contract renegotiation risk, while Sherritt’s TSX listing will see nickel-cobalt production guidance marked to zero until Moa feed resumes; no other major ASX or TSX critical-minerals names released revised tonnage figures overnight.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite
LITHIUMSinomine suspends 30000-35000 tpa high-purity lithium salt line at Jiangxi from 11 July, cutting battery-grade carbonate and hydroxide output.
NICKEL|COBALTSherritt idles Fort Saskatchewan refinery’s 38200 t combined Ni-Co capacity after Moa mixed-sulphide feed exhaustion, no restart timeline given.
LITHIUMLithium carbonate closed at 156500 CNY/t up 3.13% and lithium hydroxide at 143750 CNY/t up 3.40% on the curtailment news.
EVNo new gigafactory, EV sales or battery inventory data from CATL, BYD or LG released in the window.
Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind
CHINANo new MIIT/MOFCOM rare-earth licensing changes or quota adjustments emerged overnight; existing suspensions remain in force to November 2026.
NDFEБNeodymium oxide held at 176 USD/kg with zero price movement and no fresh magnet demand signals.
SUPPLYNo mine-level outages or force-majeure declarations reported at any rare-earth operation in the last 18 hours.
Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk
GALLIUMGallium price unchanged at 255.2 USD/kg with no new export-control announcements from China.
GERMANIUMGermanium closed flat at 2673.66 USD/kg; no policy or supply-chain updates recorded.
ANTIMONYAntimony traded at 13879.06 USD/t with zero movement and no fresh export quota news.
Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation
USDUSD Index rose 0.05% to 101.16, producing no visible pressure on critical-minerals pricing.
CHINAChina PMI data showed no overnight release; CNY/USD at 6.7846 had negligible impact on domestic metal quotes.
ENERGYS&P 500 gained 0.79% while uranium eased 0.18% to 85.1 USD/lb, decoupling energy-mineral prices from equity sentiment.
Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers
Medium Impact 2–4 years
Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk
CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.
Affects: battery
Low Impact 3–5 years
Solid-State Battery Commercialisation
Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.
Affects: battery
High Impact Active
China Critical Mineral Export Controls
China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.
Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery
Low Impact Ongoing
US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives
Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.
Affects: battery, rare_earth
Market Watch
ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium5.020▼ 1.18%▼ 14.63%—
MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron62.070▼ 0.13%▼ 10.24%—
LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium1.685▲ 1.51%▼ 14.90%—
IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel7.370▲ 0.68%▼ 9.79%—
WR1.AXWinsome ResourcesLithium————
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths18.060▼ 2.48%▼ 0.66%—
ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths0.385▲ 1.32%▲ 16.67%—
PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium9.300▼ 1.27%▼ 7.19%—
BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium1.015▼ 2.40%▼ 14.71%—
SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper19.190▲ 0.95%▼ 7.38%—
29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc0.255▲ 0.00%▼ 7.27%—
ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon7.070▲ 1.00%▼ 9.59%—
AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium0.044▼ 4.35%▼ 22.81%—
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium0.045▲ 7.14%▼ 8.16%—
GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium0.365▲ 2.82%▼ 13.10%—
VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium3.050▲ 1.33%▼ 8.96%—
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium0.043▼ 2.27%▼ 21.82%—
WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium0.520▲ 2.97%▼ 7.96%—
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium0.420▲ 5.00%▲ 0.00%—
GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium0.410▼ 2.38%▼ 13.68%—
PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium0.600▲ 6.19%▼ 3.23%—
ASX Materials · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 7.14%
PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▲ 6.19%
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▲ 5.00%
WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 2.97%
GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 2.82%
▼ Top Losers
AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 4.35%
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 2.48%
BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▼ 2.40%
GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▼ 2.38%
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 2.27%
20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close
US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths56.010▲ 2.32%▼ 8.00%—
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE14.500▼ 0.62%▼ 12.44%—
CCJCamecoUranium101.860▼ 1.56%▼ 4.35%—
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron94.930▲ 0.68%▼ 5.15%—
LACLithium AmericasLithium3.850▲ 2.12%▼ 11.90%—
SQMSQMLithium74.040▲ 5.98%▼ 7.09%—
NEMNewmontGold/Copper93.400▼ 1.17%▼ 10.01%—
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper62.890▲ 2.06%▼ 8.43%—
VALEValeNickel/Iron15.040▲ 0.07%▼ 2.46%—
NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
SQMSQMLithium▲ 5.98%
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 2.32%
LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 2.12%
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 2.06%
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.68%
▼ Top Losers
CCJCamecoUranium▼ 1.56%
NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 1.17%
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 0.62%
VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 0.07%
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.68%
9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close
TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc34.560▲ 1.89%▼ 6.92%—
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper38.740▲ 4.34%▼ 9.93%—
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper13.030▲ 0.62%▼ 10.81%—
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium13.320▼ 3.34%▼ 10.72%—
DML.TODenison MinesUranium4.350▼ 1.36%▼ 8.23%—
TSX · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 4.34%
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 1.89%
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 0.62%
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 1.36%
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 3.34%
▼ Top Losers
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 3.34%
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 1.36%
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 0.62%
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 1.89%
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 4.34%
5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close
HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt15.180▼ 1.36%▼ 19.55%—
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc6.940▲ 0.87%▼ 15.88%—
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE7.460▼ 4.36%▼ 12.75%—
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold1.140▲ 0.00%▲ 1.79%—
HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.87%
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.36%
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 4.36%
▼ Top Losers
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 4.36%
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.36%
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.87%
4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close
Calendar & Risks
Metal Category Scorecard
Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers
Battery Metals
6 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+2.09%
Best
Lithium Hydroxide
+3.40%
Worst
Cobalt
0.00%
Lithium prices jumped on Sinomine’s 30-35 ktpa line curtailment while nickel-cobalt stayed flat pending Sherritt restart clarity.
Rare Earths
4 metals tracked
— No Change Data
No change data this session
4 metal price(s) available — no change data
No Chinese policy moves or NdFeB pricing changes overnight; existing export suspensions unchanged.
Strategic Metals
4 metals tracked
◆ Neutral
+0.06%
Best
Indium
+0.06%
Worst
Indium
+0.06%
Gallium, germanium and antimony prices flat with zero new export-control announcements from Beijing.
Energy Metals
2 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+1.12%
Best
Nat. Gas
+2.42%
Worst
Uranium (U3O8)
-0.18%
Uranium eased 0.18% to 85.1 USD/lb while vanadium held steady at 13.47 USD/kg with no contracting news.
Base Metals
6 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+1.19%
Best
Copper
+2.48%
Worst
Aluminium
-0.11%
Copper gained 2.48% to 6.2485 USD/lb on macro flows; LME inventory data and China demand releases absent.
Competing Energy
5 metals tracked
⚑ Caution
+0.24%
Best
Silver
+1.80%
Worst
Crude Oil (WTI)
-1.00%
Oil and coal price moves remained decoupled from critical-minerals narrative as energy-transition metals led on supply news.
Economic & Industry Calendar
China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA
Time (AEST) Ctry Event Impact Prior Forecast
00:30AUWestpac Consumer Confidence ChangeHigh3.5None
00:30AUWestpac Consumer Confidence IndexMedium83None
01:30AUNAB Business ConfidenceHigh-23None
01:30AURBA BulletinMediumNoneNone
03:00CNBalance of TradeHigh84.892.1
03:00CNExports YoYHigh14.115
03:00CNImports YoYHigh25.325
12:15USADP Employment Change WeeklyMedium30.5None
12:30USBalance of TradeMedium-56.6-56.1
12:30USExportsMedium318.8None
12:30USImportsMedium375.4None
14:00USExisting Home SalesHigh4.044.07
14:00USExisting Home Sales MoMMedium0.7None
16:00USEIA Short-Term Energy OutlookMediumNoneNone
16:30EUECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumNoneNone
20:30USAPI Crude Oil Stock ChangeMedium-6.75-3.4
Risks & Watch Items
Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch
SUPPLYMonitor Sinomine restart date and any extension of the Jiangxi maintenance window beyond initial scope.
SUPPLYTrack Moa JV mining resumption timeline that will determine Sherritt refinery feed restart.
POLICYWatch for any follow-on MIIT rare-earth licensing adjustments extending beyond November 2026 suspensions.
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