WYS Critical Minerals · Thu 2 Jul 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 2 JULY 2026 · WYS EDITION 034

Data as of Wednesday 1 July 2026 close · Generated 2 July 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Nickel ▼ Bearish

Indonesia to Boost Nickel Mining Quotas

Indonesia plans to raise nickel mining quotas to 360 million tons from 260 million tons in the first half, feeding new smelters after producers exhausted prior allocations. Nickel price rose modestly to $16,375/t on July 1 but remains pressured by expected supply surge. Indonesia's ~60% global share amplifies the bearish impact on prices.

PRICE Uranium ▲ Bullish

Uranium Spot Holds Near $85/lb Amid Tight Supply

Spot uranium closed at $85.05/lb on June 30, down slightly weekly but supported by long-term contracts at $93-94/lb. Utilities continue contracting amid supply constraints and rising demand forecasts. Long-term bullish outlook persists into 2026 with limited new production.

DEMAND Copper ▲ Bullish

Copper Demand and Tight Supply Support Prices

Analysts remain bullish on copper through 2026 due to strong demand from electrification and constrained mine supply. Record highs persist with expectations of continued tightness despite recent volatility. No major new disruptions reported overnight.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

US Policy Support for Domestic Rare Earths

Energy Fuels advances rare earths strategy with recent acquisitions and conditional US government backing. Broader critical minerals initiatives emphasize secure supply chains away from China dominance. Demand growth from magnets and defense applications adds tailwinds.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index climbed 0.23% to 101.42 while AUD/USD fell 0.25%, yet lithium carbonate rose 2.24% to 160000 CNY/t and lithium hydroxide surged 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t, showing price resilience in battery metals despite broad dollar strength. No fresh mine outages, export bans or force majeure declarations occurred overnight; Grasberg’s ongoing 35% 2026 production cut and 591 kt cumulative copper loss through end-2026 continue to dominate refined copper market balance. Freeport-McMoRan and Ivanhoe Mines remain the most directly exposed equities given Grasberg’s phased restart only in 2027-2028 and Kamoa-Kakula’s persistent sulfuric acid constraints.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate rose 2.24% to 160000 CNY/t and lithium hydroxide 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t at prior close.

GIGAFACTORYReliance Industries reiterated July 2026 target for first output from its expanded 40 GWh Indian battery plant.

NICKELNickel settled 0.49% higher at 16390 USD/t with no fresh LME inventory data released overnight.

EVCATL Q1 2026 results of 59.52 GWh installed capacity predate the overnight window with no new offtake updates.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINA|EXPORTChina’s June 22 addition of MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to dual-use export control list remains in force with no overnight additions.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide held flat at 176 USD/kg with no new Chinese domestic price moves reported by SMM or Antaike.

SUPPLYNo fresh rare-earth mine or separation plant curtailments emerged from China or Australia in the past 12-18 hours.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GERMANIUMGermanium jumped 27.80% to 3417.36 USD/kg while indium rose 26.50% to 775.34 USD/kg at prior close.

GALLIUMGallium remained unchanged at 288.82 USD/kg with no new MIIT quota adjustments overnight.

ANTIMONYAntimony held steady at 25450 USD/t absent any fresh Chinese export licensing changes.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.23% to 101.42, applying mild pressure across USD-denominated contracts.

CHINAChina PMI release was absent overnight leaving industrial demand signals unchanged.

TRADENo new Section 232 tariff announcements or DRC/Indonesia policy moves surfaced in the search window.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.110	▲ 1.79%	▼ 7.59%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	63.230	▲ 1.87%	▼ 5.10%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.725	▲ 2.37%	▼ 9.21%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.400	▲ 0.41%	▼ 6.80%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	18.090	▲ 0.17%	▼ 2.85%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.375	▼ 2.60%	▲ 11.94%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.930	▲ 6.77%	▲ 1.02%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.155	▲ 13.79%	▲ 0.00%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	19.400	▲ 1.09%	▼ 6.33%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.255	▲ 0.00%	▼ 7.27%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.040	▼ 0.42%	▼ 13.41%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.050	▲ 13.64%	▼ 7.41%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.044	▼ 2.22%	▼ 8.33%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.365	▲ 0.00%	▼ 9.88%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	3.090	▲ 1.31%	▼ 6.36%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.047	▲ 9.30%	▼ 4.08%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.505	▼ 2.88%	▼ 2.88%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.415	▼ 1.19%	▲ 0.00%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.435	▲ 6.10%	▼ 11.22%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.620	▲ 3.33%	▲ 0.00%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 13.79%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▲ 13.64%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▲ 9.30%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▲ 6.77%

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 6.10%

▼ Top Losers

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 2.88%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 2.60%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 2.22%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 1.19%

ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▼ 0.42%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	54.280	▼ 3.09%	▼ 9.97%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.220	▼ 1.93%	▼ 11.79%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	97.390	▼ 4.39%	▼ 9.04%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	93.350	▼ 1.66%	▼ 6.05%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.830	▼ 0.52%	▼ 10.93%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	74.220	▲ 0.24%	▼ 5.63%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	93.300	▼ 0.11%	▼ 8.35%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	60.530	▼ 3.75%	▼ 12.54%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.900	▼ 0.93%	▼ 5.16%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

SQMSQMLithium▲ 0.24%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 0.11%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 0.52%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 0.93%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 1.66%

▼ Top Losers

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 4.39%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 3.75%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 3.09%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 1.93%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 1.66%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	34.560	▲ 1.89%	▼ 6.92%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	38.740	▲ 4.34%	▼ 9.93%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	13.030	▲ 0.62%	▼ 10.81%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.320	▼ 3.34%	▼ 10.72%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.350	▼ 1.36%	▼ 8.23%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 4.34%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 1.89%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 0.62%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 1.36%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 3.34%

▼ Top Losers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 3.34%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 1.36%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 0.62%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 1.89%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 4.34%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	15.180	▼ 1.36%	▼ 19.55%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	6.940	▲ 0.87%	▼ 15.88%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.460	▼ 4.36%	▼ 12.75%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.140	▲ 0.00%	▲ 1.79%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.87%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.36%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 4.36%

▼ Top Losers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 4.36%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.36%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.87%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.31%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.40%

Worst

Cobalt

0.00%

Lithium carbonate and hydroxide posted clear overnight gains while Reliance gigafactory timeline stayed on track.

Rare Earths

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

No new Chinese pricing or export policy moves; June 22 entity-list restrictions remain the dominant standing constraint.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+27.15%

Best

Germanium

+27.80%

Worst

Indium

+26.50%

Germanium and indium recorded sharp price spikes of 27.80% and 26.50% respectively on limited volume.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.84%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.47%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-2.14%

Uranium edged 0.47% higher to 85.5 USD/lb with no fresh long-term contract announcements.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

+0.16%

Best

Tin

+2.37%

Worst

Zinc

-1.00%

Copper stayed under pressure from the ongoing 591 kt Grasberg loss through 2026 despite flat cobalt and modest nickel gains.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.71%

Best

Gold

+0.59%

Worst

Brent Crude

-2.37%

S&P 500 fell 0.22% while USD strength offered no immediate relief to energy-transition cost curves.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

POLICYMonitor MIIT and MOFCOM for any follow-on rare-earth or gallium export quota adjustments after June 22 entity list.

SUPPLYTrack Freeport-McMoRan Grasberg restart milestones for 2026 copper balance revisions.

GEOWatch DRC acid supply logistics affecting Ivanhoe Kamoa-Kakula output.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.