WYS Critical Minerals · Thu 9 Jul 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 9 JULY 2026 · WYS EDITION 039

Data as of Wednesday 8 July 2026 close · Generated 9 July 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

EVelution advances solar-powered Arizona cobalt sulfate plant

EVelution Energy is developing a commercial-scale facility in Yuma County, Arizona, to produce up to 20,000 metric tons of EV battery-grade cobalt sulfate annually from 24,000 tons of feedstock. The plant could supply ~40% of projected US cobalt demand once operational, supporting domestic battery supply chain diversification.

DEMAND Uranium ▲ Bullish

Uranium prices near two-month highs amid strong long-term outlook

Uranium prices hold at ~$86.55, reflecting robust demand forecasts. US domestic production rose in Q1 2026 per EIA data, while DOE contracts advance HALEU goals, signaling sustained nuclear fuel demand growth.

DEMAND Copper ▲ Bullish

Positive 2026 copper outlook supported by stable mining and demand

Senior officials note broadly positive outlook for copper through 2026, driven by strong demand from electrification and AI infrastructure. No major supply threats reported from key producers like Congo despite geopolitical tensions.

SUPPLY Graphite ▲ Bullish

Global Battery Materials advances Kearney graphite project PEA

Positive preliminary economic assessment released for the Kearney graphite project, highlighting potential new North American supply for battery anodes amid ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese graphite processing.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight macro showed a 0.07% dip in the USD Index to 101.07 alongside a 0.28% S&P 500 decline, producing negligible pressure on critical minerals pricing with most metals closing flat or within 1% of prior levels. Lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t while spodumene SC6 fell 1.29% to 2300 USD/t, reflecting thin trading volumes rather than fresh fundamental shifts. The absence of overnight catalysts left price action driven by position squaring ahead of the weekend.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate closed at 164000 CNY/t, down 0.30%, with no new Chinese smelter output data released overnight.

EVBYD Q2 2026 BEV deliveries stood at 557090 units versus Tesla's 480126, carrying forward from prior period without fresh overnight updates.

NICKELNickel rose 0.68% to 16385 USD/t on LME trading with no new supply curtailment signals from Indonesian operations.

COBALTCobalt held steady at 56290 USD/t with no inventory releases from major DRC or Chinese refiners.

GIGAFACTORYNo new gigafactory offtake announcements emerged from CATL, LG, or Panasonic overnight.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINAChina's rare earth export controls remain suspended until November 2026 with case-by-case licensing still in effect.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide held at 176 USD/kg with no fresh Chinese domestic pricing moves reported by SMM or Antaike.

EXPORTMP Materials and USA Rare Earth remain on the June 2026 addition list under suspended controls.

SUPPLYNo new force majeure or production halts reported at Mountain Pass or other non-Chinese REE operations overnight.

MAGNETNo updates on NdFeB magnet demand from EV or wind turbine supply chains surfaced in the monitored window.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium closed unchanged at 255.28 USD/kg with no new export quota announcements from China.

GERMANIUMGermanium held at 3417 USD/kg absent any fresh MOFCOM licensing changes.

ANTIMONYAntimony remained at 25450 USD/t with no policy shifts affecting Hunan or other key producers.

POLICYNo new additions to China's critical minerals export control list emerged overnight.

EXPORTNo defence supply chain disruptions tied to gallium or germanium were flagged in the last 12 hours.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index at 101.07 implies limited immediate translation pressure on USD-denominated metal prices.

CHINAChina PMI data release remains absent from the overnight window, leaving industrial demand signals stale.

RATESNo overnight rate decision or guidance shift from major central banks affecting mining capex.

TRADENo new tariff or quota adjustments impacting critical minerals trade flows were announced.

ENERGYUranium at 85.7 USD/lb showed a 0.23% gain with no fresh contracting news from utilities.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.700	▼ 3.29%	▼ 7.48%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	58.870	▼ 3.41%	▼ 5.28%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.465	▼ 4.25%	▼ 11.75%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	6.950	▼ 3.61%	▼ 5.05%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	17.080	▲ 1.01%	▼ 7.78%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.350	▼ 5.41%	▼ 7.89%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.510	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.96%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.230	▼ 0.40%	▲ 18.27%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.280	▼ 1.24%	▼ 3.84%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.240	▼ 4.00%	▼ 5.88%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.560	▼ 0.46%	▼ 6.29%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.042	▼ 10.64%	▼ 8.70%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.043	▲ 0.00%	▲ 2.38%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.330	▼ 4.35%	▼ 7.04%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.950	▼ 1.34%	▼ 1.99%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.042	▼ 4.55%	▼ 4.55%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.460	▼ 5.15%	▼ 8.91%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.360	▼ 4.00%	▼ 10.00%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.470	▲ 5.62%	▲ 11.90%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.560	▼ 3.45%	▼ 0.88%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 5.62%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 1.01%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▲ 0.00%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 0.40%

▼ Top Losers

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 10.64%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 5.41%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 5.15%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 4.55%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▼ 4.35%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	53.000	▲ 4.97%	▼ 1.67%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	13.140	▲ 2.18%	▼ 10.12%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	94.730	▲ 0.06%	▼ 9.34%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	88.800	▼ 2.68%	▼ 5.27%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.580	▼ 1.10%	▼ 5.54%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	74.430	▲ 1.40%	▲ 3.97%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	93.200	▼ 1.96%	▼ 3.05%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	57.500	▼ 3.08%	▼ 7.93%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.050	▼ 4.36%	▼ 6.77%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 4.97%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 2.18%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 1.40%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 0.06%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 1.10%

▼ Top Losers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 4.36%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 3.08%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 2.68%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 1.96%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 1.10%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	32.240	▼ 3.07%	▼ 4.42%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	37.100	▲ 1.26%	▼ 0.54%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	11.980	▼ 2.84%	▼ 5.97%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.000	▲ 0.78%	▼ 5.73%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.400	▼ 1.57%	▲ 0.23%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 1.26%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 0.78%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 1.57%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 2.84%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 3.07%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 3.07%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 2.84%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 1.57%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 0.78%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 1.26%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	15.200	▼ 4.76%	▼ 1.94%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.020	▼ 3.04%	▲ 0.14%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.580	▼ 2.70%	▼ 2.19%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.100	▼ 4.35%	▲ 0.92%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 2.70%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 3.04%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 4.35%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 4.76%

▼ Top Losers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 4.76%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 4.35%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 3.04%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 2.70%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.50%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.40%

Worst

Spodumene SC6

-1.29%

Lithium hydroxide gained 3.40% while carbonate eased 0.30% on thin volumes with no new supply or demand data overnight.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide and broader REE prices remained unchanged with China's export controls still suspended.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Gallium, germanium and antimony showed zero price movement absent any new export control announcements.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.52%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.23%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-1.26%

Uranium rose 0.23% to 85.7 USD/lb with no fresh contracting or production news.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.21%

Best

Tin

+0.50%

Worst

Copper

-0.87%

Copper fell 0.87% to 6.118 USD/lb while Grasberg lost output remains the dominant ongoing supply constraint.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.50%

Best

Brent Crude

+6.84%

Worst

Silver

-3.76%

No material oil or gas price moves altered the energy transition cost narrative overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYMonitor BHP Escondida expansion approval for potential 2027 copper output uplift.

GEOWatch for any reactivation of MP Materials or USA Rare Earth licensing under suspended controls.

POLICYTrack MIIT or MOFCOM announcements ahead of November 2026 control suspension expiry.

RISKNo new inventory data from CATL or BYD leaves battery metals demand opaque.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.