WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 10 Jul 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 10 JULY 2026 · WYS EDITION 040

Data as of Thursday 9 July 2026 close · Generated 10 July 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish

Lithium carbonate drops 3.35% to 158,500 CNY/t on July 9

Prices fell amid speculation that a major CATL lepidolite mine could resume operations soon, pushing spot levels to a 10-week low. The decline follows a 4.37% drop over the past month despite strong year-over-year gains. Analysts note potential near-term supply relief offsetting EV and ESS demand growth.

POLICY Gallium ▲ Bullish

China export controls on gallium tighten supply chains

Ongoing licensing and selective restrictions continue to create bottlenecks for Western buyers reliant on Chinese precursors. Companies are accelerating stockpiling and supply-chain mapping in response to calculated uncertainty in approvals. This sustains upward pressure on prices and reshapes sourcing strategies.

PRICE Germanium ▲ Bullish

Germanium prices surge 27.8% month-over-month in China

Domestic benchmark reached $3,417/kg as of July 1, 2026, the largest monthly gain tracked, driven by export controls and supply tightness. Western in-warehouse premiums narrowed but remain elevated at ~83%. Persistent policy risks support structurally higher pricing.

POLICY Graphite ▲ Bullish

China graphite export controls add to anode supply risk

Licensing requirements and discretionary approvals continue to fragment global supply, prompting Western firms to build inventories and diversify. Combined with similar measures on gallium and germanium, the measures elevate strategic stockpiling needs. Demand from EV batteries remains robust.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index slipped 0.11% to 100.94 and CNY strengthened 0.28% to 6.7837, lifting copper 3.22% to 6.2495 USD/lb while lithium carbonate fell 3.35% to 158500 CNY/t and spodumene SC6 eased 1.09% to 2275 USD/t. Uranium (U3O8) edged down 0.18% to 85.55 USD/lb with no offsetting demand impulse visible. The macro moves reinforced a two-speed pricing environment in which base metals benefited from a softer dollar but battery and energy minerals remained under supply-side pressure.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMZijin Mining commenced dense medium processing at Manono one month early, delivering 43kt attributable LCE output.

EVGlobal EV battery installations reached 469.2 GWh in Jan-May 2026, up 16.3% YoY with CATL at 188.4 GWh.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate prices fell 3.35% to 158500 CNY/t while lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t.

GRAPHITEGlobal Battery Materials released PEA supporting restart of Ontario's Kearney graphite mine for battery-grade supply.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINAChinese export controls on US rare-earth and defence entities remain those announced in June 2026 with no new MIIT actions.

NDFEBNeodymium oxide held at 176 USD/kg with no overnight price movement reported.

EXPORTNo new rare-earth export licence data or magnet demand signals emerged in the past 12-18 hours.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium traded unchanged at 255.28 USD/kg with no export-control updates overnight.

GERMANIUMGermanium held at 3417.36 USD/kg absent any new Chinese policy moves.

ANTIMONYAntimony remained at 25450 USD/t with zero reported supply-chain disruption.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index at 100.94 supported copper's 3.22% gain but did not prevent lithium carbonate's decline.

CHINAChina PMI data remained unreleased overnight leaving domestic demand signals unchanged.

TRADEAustralia-India uranium export agreement was finalised with no immediate price impact visible.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.610	▼ 1.91%	▼ 8.17%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	58.490	▼ 0.65%	▼ 5.77%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.475	▲ 0.68%	▼ 12.46%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	6.780	▼ 2.45%	▼ 8.01%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.860	▼ 1.29%	▼ 6.64%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.355	▲ 1.43%	▼ 7.79%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.660	▲ 1.58%	▲ 3.87%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.265	▲ 2.85%	▲ 24.63%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.150	▼ 0.71%	▼ 5.42%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.235	▼ 2.08%	▼ 7.84%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.490	▼ 1.07%	▼ 8.20%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.043	▲ 2.38%	▼ 2.27%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.043	▲ 0.00%	▼ 4.44%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.330	▲ 0.00%	▼ 9.59%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.890	▼ 2.03%	▼ 5.25%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.043	▲ 2.38%	▲ 0.00%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.450	▼ 2.17%	▼ 13.46%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.350	▼ 2.78%	▼ 16.67%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.430	▼ 8.51%	▲ 4.88%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.535	▼ 4.46%	▼ 10.83%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 2.85%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▲ 2.38%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▲ 2.38%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▲ 1.58%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 1.43%

▼ Top Losers

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▼ 8.51%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 4.46%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 2.78%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▼ 2.45%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 2.17%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	51.710	▼ 2.43%	▼ 5.54%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	13.490	▲ 2.66%	▼ 7.54%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	95.740	▲ 1.07%	▼ 7.47%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	89.490	▲ 0.78%	▼ 5.09%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.560	▼ 0.56%	▼ 5.57%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	74.090	▼ 0.46%	▲ 6.05%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	94.810	▲ 1.73%	▲ 0.32%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	60.530	▲ 5.27%	▼ 1.77%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.220	▲ 1.21%	▼ 5.39%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 5.27%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 2.66%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 1.73%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 1.21%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 1.07%

▼ Top Losers

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 2.43%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 0.56%

SQMSQMLithium▼ 0.46%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.78%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 1.07%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	34.490	▲ 6.98%	▲ 1.68%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	39.110	▲ 5.42%	▲ 5.33%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	12.560	▲ 4.84%	▼ 3.01%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.430	▲ 3.31%	▼ 2.54%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.490	▲ 2.05%	▲ 1.81%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 6.98%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 5.42%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 4.84%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 3.31%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 2.05%

▼ Top Losers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 2.05%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 3.31%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 4.84%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 5.42%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 6.98%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	15.100	▼ 0.66%	▼ 0.79%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.030	▲ 0.14%	▲ 3.84%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.630	▲ 0.66%	▼ 0.13%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.100	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 0.66%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.14%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 0.66%

▼ Top Losers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 0.66%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.14%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 0.66%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.26%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.40%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-3.35%

Lithium carbonate fell 3.35% on Zijin Manono early output while EV battery installations rose 16.3% YoY to 469.2 GWh.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

No new Chinese export controls or NdFeB price moves; neodymium oxide remained cached at 176 USD/kg.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Gallium, germanium and antimony prices were unchanged with zero new export-control developments overnight.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-3.25%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

-0.18%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-6.32%

Uranium eased 0.18% as Uranium Energy Corp advanced permitting expansions at Christensen Ranch and Arizona.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.71%

Best

Copper

+3.22%

Worst

Zinc

-0.87%

Copper rose 3.22% to 6.2495 USD/lb on softer USD while Zijin reported 6% YoY drop in 100%-basis mine output.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

+0.28%

Best

Silver

+3.81%

Worst

Brent Crude

-2.50%

No oil, gas or coal price moves were flagged that would alter the energy-transition narrative overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYZijin Manono ramp-up volumes will be monitored for further LCE supply additions in H2 2026.

POLICYWyoming DEQ decision on Uranium Energy Corp's 352-acre aquifer exemption request due in coming weeks.

GEOAustralia-India uranium export agreement implementation timeline remains the key watchpoint for offtake flows.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.