WYS Critical Minerals · Thu 16 Jul 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 16 JULY 2026 · WYS EDITION 045

Data as of Wednesday 15 July 2026 close · Generated 16 July 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish

Lithium Prices Edge Lower on July 13

Battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices slipped 0.67% to $22.7/kg amid persistent oversupply concerns and cooling short-term EV demand. Spot inventories remain elevated, capping immediate recovery despite longer-term storage and AI-driven demand projections.

POLICY Nickel ▼ Bearish

Nickel Futures Drop 14% on Indonesia Quota Rumors

LME nickel prices fell sharply to around $16,395/MT following reports Indonesia may expand 2026 mining quotas to 360 million tonnes. The potential supply increase could ease smelter ore deficits but pressures near-term pricing.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index fell 0.42% to 100.52 while copper climbed 0.87% to 6.385 USD/lb and lithium hydroxide surged 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t, lifting battery metals amid softer nickel at 16570 USD/t down 0.51%. Global EV sales reached 2.0 million units in June 2026, up 7% yoy, with BYD delivering 403472 NEVs and China exports hitting 500000 units, directly supporting lithium hydroxide demand despite 11% yoy China sales decline. ASX-exposed lithium names face upside from the hydroxide move while nickel producers absorb the 0.51% price dip with no offsetting operational news overnight.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t while spodumene SC6 fell 0.45% to 2220 USD/t.

EVGlobal EV sales hit 2.0 million units in June 2026, up 7% yoy, with BYD reporting 403472 NEV sales.

NICKELNickel closed at 16570 USD/t, down 0.51%, with no refinery curtailments reported.

GIGAFACTORYNo new gigafactory offtake changes from CATL, BYD, LG or Panasonic overnight.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEБNeodymium oxide held flat at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese policy moves.

CHINANo new MIIT export quotas or rare earth licensing announcements from Beijing.

MAGNETNo magnet demand shifts or supply chain updates from major processors.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium traded unchanged at 288.82 USD/kg with zero export control updates.

GERMANIUMGermanium held at 3417.36 USD/kg absent any new Chinese restrictions.

ANTIMONYAntimony closed flat at 25450 USD/t with no policy or supply signals.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index dropped 0.42% to 100.52, supporting USD-denominated metal prices.

CHINAChina PMI data remained unreleased overnight with no industrial output revision.

ENERGYUranium fell 0.53% to 85.15 USD/lb on broader energy market moves.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.640	▲ 2.43%	▼ 9.73%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	60.320	▲ 2.41%	▼ 6.54%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.435	▲ 1.06%	▼ 13.29%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.000	▲ 3.86%	▼ 5.91%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.480	▲ 1.48%	▼ 8.75%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.355	▲ 0.00%	▲ 1.43%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.320	▲ 2.31%	▼ 6.05%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.310	▲ 4.80%	▼ 3.32%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	19.020	▲ 0.90%	▼ 1.35%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.230	▼ 2.13%	▼ 11.54%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.460	▲ 0.62%	▼ 6.10%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.045	▲ 0.00%	▼ 10.00%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.045	▲ 4.65%	▲ 4.65%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.325	▲ 3.17%	▼ 12.16%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.850	▲ 3.26%	▼ 6.56%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.043	▲ 4.88%	▼ 6.52%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.435	▲ 0.00%	▼ 16.35%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.335	▲ 3.08%	▼ 11.84%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.465	▲ 3.33%	▼ 1.06%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.510	▼ 1.92%	▼ 16.39%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▲ 4.88%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 4.80%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 4.65%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▲ 3.86%

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 3.33%

▼ Top Losers

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▼ 2.13%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 1.92%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 0.00%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 0.00%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 0.00%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	49.460	▼ 2.62%	▼ 6.70%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	12.670	▼ 4.23%	▼ 7.99%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	90.980	▼ 0.64%	▼ 6.69%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	93.620	▲ 0.35%	▲ 0.04%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.110	▼ 1.27%	▼ 18.59%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	71.520	▼ 1.96%	▼ 2.72%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	95.210	▲ 0.49%	▼ 3.04%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	60.970	▼ 1.58%	▼ 0.05%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.670	▲ 0.55%	▼ 2.78%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 0.55%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 0.49%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.35%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 0.64%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 1.27%

▼ Top Losers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 4.23%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 2.62%

SQMSQMLithium▼ 1.96%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 1.58%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 1.27%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	34.470	▼ 2.54%	▼ 0.95%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	38.430	▼ 1.31%	▼ 0.93%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	13.100	▼ 1.87%	▼ 0.08%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.000	▼ 1.22%	▼ 5.25%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.350	▼ 2.47%	▼ 5.64%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 1.22%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 1.31%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.87%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 2.47%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 2.54%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 2.54%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 2.47%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.87%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 1.31%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 1.22%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	15.950	▲ 7.34%	▼ 1.54%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.570	▲ 7.07%	▲ 3.84%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.230	▲ 9.59%	▲ 6.88%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.090	▼ 0.91%	▼ 5.22%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 9.59%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 7.34%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 7.07%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.91%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.91%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 7.07%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 7.34%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 9.59%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.49%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.40%

Worst

Nickel

-0.51%

Lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% on 2.0 million June EV units while nickel slipped 0.51%.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide remained flat at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese export policy changes.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Gallium, germanium and antimony all closed unchanged with zero new export controls.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

+0.11%

Best

Nat. Gas

+0.76%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

-0.53%

Uranium declined 0.53% to 85.15 USD/lb absent fresh contracting data.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.72%

Best

Tin

+2.31%

Worst

Aluminium

-0.83%

Copper gained 0.87% to 6.385 USD/lb on USD weakness with stable LME signals.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.49%

Best

Brent Crude

+1.39%

Worst

Silver

-1.05%

Lower USD index supported non-oil energy transition metals pricing.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:00	US	Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies	High	—	—
16:00	GB	GDP m/m	High	-0.1%	0.0%
22:30	US	Core Retail Sales m/m	Medium	0.8%	0.0%
22:30	US	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	Medium	10.3	12.7
22:30	US	Retail Sales m/m	Medium	0.9%	0.2%
22:30	US	Unemployment Claims	Medium	215K	216K

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

MACROWatch AUD/USD at 0.7009 for ASX lithium and nickel producer margins.

SUPPLYMonitor any follow-through from 2.0 million June EV sales into July cathode demand.

GEOTrack potential MIIT announcements on battery metals export licences.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.