WYS Critical Minerals · Wed 15 Jul 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · WEDNESDAY 15 JULY 2026 · WYS EDITION 044

Data as of Tuesday 14 July 2026 close · Generated 15 July 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish

Lithium Prices Edge Lower on July 13

Battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices slipped 0.67% to $22.7/kg amid persistent oversupply concerns and cooling short-term EV demand. Spot inventories remain elevated, capping immediate recovery despite longer-term storage and AI-driven demand projections.

POLICY Nickel ▼ Bearish

Nickel Futures Drop 14% on Indonesia Quota Rumors

LME nickel prices fell sharply to around $16,395/MT following reports Indonesia may expand 2026 mining quotas to 360 million tonnes. The potential supply increase could ease smelter ore deficits but pressures near-term pricing.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index slipped 0.34% to 100.94 while AUD/USD gained 0.85%, easing pressure on Australian dollar revenues and supporting a 2.11% lift in copper to 6.3645 USD/lb; lithium hydroxide also rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t, showing selective spot buying amid the softer greenback. No mine outages, export bans, force-majeure notices or gigafactory adjustments were recorded between 14-15 July 2026, leaving the modest price moves driven purely by currency and thin trading rather than any physical supply or demand shock. ASX-exposed producers of spodumene and nickel laterite see limited immediate repricing risk from the flat-to-down session in lithium carbonate and nickel, with macro support offsetting the absence of fresh offtake or inventory data.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 0.65% to 154000 CNY/t while lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t on limited spot volumes.

NICKELNickel closed at 16570 USD/t, down 0.51%, with no fresh Indonesian or Australian production data released overnight.

EVNo new gigafactory or offtake announcements emerged from CATL, BYD or LG overnight.

COBALTCobalt held steady at 56290 USD/t with zero reported inventory shifts from DRC or Chinese refiners.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEБNeodymium oxide remained unchanged at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese domestic price updates from SMM or Antaike.

CHINANo new rare-earth export quotas or magnet-related policy notices were issued overnight.

SUPPLYNo operational updates from Chinese rare-earth separation plants or Australian REE projects were recorded.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium traded flat at 288.82 USD/kg with no export-control announcements from China.

GERMANIUMGermanium held at 3417.36 USD/kg absent any policy or supply-chain alerts.

ANTIMONYAntimony closed unchanged at 25450 USD/t with no DRC or Chinese regulatory moves noted.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index fell 0.34% to 100.94, providing mild support to USD-denominated critical-mineral prices.

CHINANo China PMI or industrial output data were released in the overnight window.

RATESS&P 500 rose 0.38% with no direct linkage to critical-minerals demand signals.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.530	▲ 1.12%	▼ 13.38%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	58.900	▲ 1.48%	▼ 9.48%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.420	▼ 0.35%	▼ 16.72%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	6.740	▲ 0.75%	▼ 10.25%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.240	▼ 0.06%	▼ 10.87%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.355	▼ 2.74%	▲ 0.00%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.110	▼ 5.99%	▼ 8.72%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.250	▼ 3.85%	▼ 1.96%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.850	▲ 1.51%	▼ 2.53%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.235	▼ 2.08%	▼ 11.32%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.420	▼ 0.77%	▼ 8.29%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.045	▲ 0.00%	▼ 13.46%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.043	▼ 2.27%	▼ 2.27%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.315	▲ 1.61%	▼ 13.70%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.760	▲ 0.73%	▼ 10.68%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.041	▼ 2.38%	▼ 10.87%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.435	▼ 7.45%	▼ 16.35%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.325	▼ 1.52%	▼ 18.75%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.450	▲ 1.12%	▲ 2.27%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.520	▲ 1.96%	▼ 16.13%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▲ 1.96%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 1.61%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 1.51%

MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron▲ 1.48%

PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▲ 1.12%

▼ Top Losers

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 7.45%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▼ 5.99%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▼ 3.85%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 2.74%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 2.38%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	50.790	▲ 2.61%	▼ 4.73%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	13.230	▲ 1.38%	▼ 4.20%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	91.570	▲ 1.52%	▼ 5.15%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	93.290	▲ 3.83%	▼ 1.20%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.150	▲ 0.32%	▼ 16.22%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	72.950	▲ 1.40%	▲ 0.34%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	94.750	▲ 1.77%	▼ 2.36%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	61.950	▲ 3.30%	▲ 1.61%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.590	▲ 2.89%	▼ 2.67%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 3.83%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 3.30%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 2.89%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 2.61%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 1.77%

▼ Top Losers

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 0.32%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 1.38%

SQMSQMLithium▼ 1.40%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 1.52%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 1.77%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	35.370	▲ 4.43%	▲ 0.63%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	38.940	▲ 8.26%	▼ 2.16%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	13.350	▲ 5.78%	▲ 0.75%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.160	▲ 3.05%	▼ 5.46%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.460	▲ 3.72%	▼ 1.76%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 8.26%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 5.78%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 4.43%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 3.72%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 3.05%

▼ Top Losers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 3.05%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 3.72%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 4.43%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 5.78%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 8.26%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	14.860	▼ 0.60%	▼ 1.78%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.070	▼ 1.26%	▲ 2.46%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.510	▼ 1.44%	▲ 1.90%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.100	▲ 1.85%	▼ 4.35%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 1.85%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 0.60%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 1.26%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.44%

▼ Top Losers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.44%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 1.26%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 0.60%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 1.85%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.45%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.40%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-0.65%

Lithium hydroxide posted a 3.40% gain while carbonate and nickel edged lower on currency moves and absent physical news.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide and other REE prices remained flat with no Chinese policy or magnet demand updates overnight.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Gallium, germanium and antimony showed zero movement and no export-control developments from China.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

+0.27%

Best

Nat. Gas

+0.72%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

-0.17%

Uranium eased 0.17% to 85.6 USD/lb with no fresh contracting or production data.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+2.11%

Best

Copper

+2.11%

Worst

Copper

+2.11%

Copper rose 2.11% on the weaker USD while broader China demand indicators stayed quiet.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.69%

Best

Brent Crude

+2.69%

Worst

Iron Ore

-0.42%

Oil and gas price moves were not addressed in targeted critical-minerals coverage overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:00	US	Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies	High	—	—
06:00	GB	BOE Gov Bailey Speaks	High	—	—
22:30	US	Core PPI m/m	High	0.4%	0.3%
22:30	US	PPI m/m	High	1.1%	0.0%

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

MACRONext China PMI release remains the key scheduled data point for demand signals.

SUPPLYMonitor for any follow-up company filings on spodumene or nickel laterite output.

GEOWatch for Indonesian processing policy commentary beyond long-term references already circulating.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.