While You Slept/Critical Minerals archive← Mon 27 Jul 2026Wed 29 Jul 2026 →Free by email
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While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition  ·  AI Buildout  ·  The Materials That Power Both
PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗  ·  TUESDAY 28 JULY 2026  ·  WYS EDITION 053
Data as of  Monday 27 July 2026 close  ·  Generated  28 July 2026  7:00 AM AEST  ·  S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017
Commodity Prices
Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals
↳ Background Context
Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite
Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets
Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium
Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum
Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron
Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.
Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy
Supply & Demand Signals
Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals
POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish
DRC imposes cobalt export quota, creating supply gap
DRC's new export quota has introduced a projected supply deficit for cobalt through 2035. This policy shift by the dominant producer has driven cobalt prices up ~130% amid tight supply conditions. The move underscores risks from geographic concentration in critical minerals.
SUPPLY Lithium ▼ Bearish
CATL's Jianxiawo mine secures restart permit
CATL obtained the final safety production permit for its large Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in Jiangxi, China, idle since August 2025. Restart expected as early as September 2026, potentially adding 37kt LCE in 2026 (~1.5% global supply). This increases near-term supply outlook amid already retreating prices.
POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish
China's heavy rare earth export controls persist
April 2025 controls on seven heavy rare earths, expanded in October 2025, remain a key risk with suspension until November 2026. Full implementation could threaten USD 6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China. Prices for dysprosium and terbium in Europe are ~5x Chinese domestic levels.
POLICY Graphite ▲ Bullish
China export controls on battery-grade graphite
October 2025 Chinese controls on graphite anode materials and precursors continue to tighten supply chains. Full disruption could put over USD 300 billion of annual downstream battery production outside China at risk. Mozambique also introduced new graphite export restrictions.
PRICE Gallium ▲ Bullish
Gallium prices diverge sharply due to export controls
Export controls have caused gallium prices in Europe to reach ~5x Chinese domestic levels. The metal ranks among the highest-risk materials in IEA assessments alongside germanium and heavy rare earths amid ongoing supply concentration concerns.
PRICE Copper ▲ Bullish
Copper prices hit records amid persistent deficits
Copper prices rose one-third from Jan 2025 to April 2026, reaching record highs on tight supply. Projected 2035 supply deficit narrowed slightly to 25% with new projects in DRC/Zambia, but gaps remain significant.
Analysis
Overnight Briefing
Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index edged to 101.54 while CNY/USD held at 6.7652, providing a neutral backdrop that allowed Chinese lithium carbonate to rise 0.69% to 21583.16 CNY/t and lithium hydroxide to jump 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t. Broader critical minerals prices including cobalt at 56290 USD/t and nickel at 17270 USD/t showed zero movement, underscoring the absence of fresh macro-driven flows. No China PMI release occurred to alter the picture. The sole quantifiable development was the lithium hydroxide price surge on July 27 with no accompanying production cut or demand shock from Chinese converters or Australian spodumene operations, leaving SC6 at 2095 USD/t up just 0.24%. This isolated move reversed part of the prior month’s decline but produced no follow-through in neodymium oxide at 176 USD/kg or gallium at 248 USD/kg. ASX names tied to lithium and spodumene shipments face the direct impact of the lithium hydroxide gain while graphite and rare earth producers such as Syrah Resources see no reprieve from the resolved Balama force majeure and unchanged Chinese magnet supply gap of roughly 48000 t against 300 t domestic output.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite
LITHIUMChinese lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t on July 27 with no new converter output data released.
LITHIUMLithium carbonate in China gained 0.69% to 21583.16 CNY/t reversing part of June’s 3.46% decline.
SPODUMENESpodumene SC6 held at 2095 USD/t up 0.24% with no Australian producer shipment revisions.
COBALTCobalt remained at 56290 USD/t with zero spot movement reported overnight.
NICKELNickel stayed at 17270 USD/t showing no LME or Shanghai inventory shift.
Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind
NDFEBNeodymium oxide held at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese magnet producer price adjustment.
CHINANo new Ministry of Commerce licensing announcements emerged on the 2027 rare earth phase-out deadline.
SUPPLYDomestic US rare earth magnet supply remains at approximately 300 t against 48000 t demand.
EXPORTNo fresh Chinese export control notices on rare earths or magnets were issued overnight.
Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk
GALLIUMGallium traded unchanged at 248 USD/kg with no MIIT production quota update.
GERMANIUMGermanium held at 3417 USD/kg absent any new export restriction.
ANTIMONYAntimony stayed at 7218 USD/t with no policy shift from Chinese producers.
TUNGSTENTungsten APT remained at 323 USD/mtu showing no supply curtailment.
Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation
USDUSD Index rose 0.07% to 101.54 providing mild pressure on non-USD denominated prices.
CHINANo China PMI or industrial output figures were published in the overnight window.
TRADECNY/USD at 6.7652 showed a 0.10% decline with limited immediate effect on mineral imports.
ENERGYUranium U3O8 edged up 0.23% to 86.05 USD/lb with no contracting news.
Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers
Medium Impact 2–4 years
Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk
CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.
Affects: battery
Low Impact 3–5 years
Solid-State Battery Commercialisation
Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.
Affects: battery
High Impact Active
China Critical Mineral Export Controls
China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.
Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery
Low Impact Ongoing
US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives
Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.
Affects: battery, rare_earth
Market Watch
ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium4.250▲ 2.66%▼ 4.92%—
MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron54.700▲ 2.17%▼ 6.17%—
LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium1.225▲ 3.38%▼ 12.19%—
IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel6.750▲ 2.90%▼ 1.89%—
WR1.AXWinsome ResourcesLithium————
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths14.870▲ 0.54%▼ 8.49%—
ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths0.380▲ 16.92%▲ 10.14%—
PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium9.570▼ 1.14%▲ 4.25%—
BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium1.285▼ 1.15%▼ 0.77%—
SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper19.240▲ 3.89%▲ 3.16%—
29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc0.250▲ 4.17%▲ 8.70%—
ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon5.830▼ 1.02%▼ 8.76%—
AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium0.043▲ 4.88%▲ 0.00%—
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium0.043▼ 2.27%▲ 0.00%—
GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium0.295▲ 1.72%▼ 7.81%—
VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium2.640▲ 1.93%▼ 5.04%—
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium0.042▲ 5.00%▲ 0.00%—
WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium0.360▲ 1.41%▼ 12.20%—
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium0.275▲ 0.00%▼ 14.06%—
GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium0.510▲ 2.00%▲ 8.51%—
PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium0.450▲ 2.27%▼ 5.26%—
ASX Materials · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 16.92%
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▲ 5.00%
AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▲ 4.88%
29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 4.17%
SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 3.89%
▼ Top Losers
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 2.27%
BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▼ 1.15%
PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▼ 1.14%
ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▼ 1.02%
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 0.00%
20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close
US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths43.130▲ 4.43%▼ 5.13%—
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE11.710▲ 3.63%▲ 0.34%—
CCJCamecoUranium89.350▲ 1.70%▲ 2.28%—
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron91.950▲ 0.80%▲ 1.41%—
LACLithium AmericasLithium2.900▲ 3.20%▼ 1.36%—
SQMSQMLithium68.790▲ 0.09%▲ 3.71%—
NEMNewmontGold/Copper93.470▲ 0.30%▲ 2.91%—
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper62.720▲ 0.19%▲ 7.10%—
VALEValeNickel/Iron14.780▼ 0.07%▲ 3.94%—
NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 4.43%
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 3.63%
LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 3.20%
CCJCamecoUranium▲ 1.70%
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.80%
▼ Top Losers
VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 0.07%
SQMSQMLithium▼ 0.09%
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 0.19%
NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 0.30%
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.80%
9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close
TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc35.690▼ 0.70%▲ 6.25%—
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper38.400▼ 0.31%▲ 2.70%—
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper13.130▲ 1.39%▲ 5.21%—
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium13.110▲ 1.71%▲ 5.39%—
DML.TODenison MinesUranium4.110▲ 0.24%▲ 2.49%—
TSX · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 1.71%
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.39%
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.24%
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 0.31%
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 0.70%
▼ Top Losers
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 0.70%
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 0.31%
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.24%
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.39%
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 1.71%
5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close
HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt16.820▼ 4.49%▲ 6.25%—
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc8.300▼ 5.03%▲ 9.35%—
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE8.300▼ 3.82%▲ 2.60%—
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold1.140▼ 0.87%▲ 1.79%—
HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.87%
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 3.82%
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 4.49%
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 5.03%
▼ Top Losers
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 5.03%
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 4.49%
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 3.82%
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.87%
4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close
Calendar & Risks
Metal Category Scorecard
Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers
Battery Metals
6 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+1.08%
Best
Lithium Hydroxide
+3.40%
Worst
Cobalt
0.00%
Lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% while cobalt and nickel showed zero movement, driven solely by Chinese spot trading without new supply or demand data.
Rare Earths
5 metals tracked
— No Change Data
No change data this session
5 metal price(s) available — no change data
Neodymium oxide stayed flat at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese pricing shift or new magnet export policy action overnight.
Strategic Metals
5 metals tracked
— No Change Data
No change data this session
5 metal price(s) available — no change data
Gallium, germanium and antimony prices were unchanged with no export control updates from Chinese authorities.
Energy Metals
2 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-1.62%
Best
Uranium (U3O8)
+0.23%
Worst
Nat. Gas
-3.48%
Uranium edged 0.23% higher to 86.05 USD/lb on thin volume with no new long-term contracting reported.
Base Metals
6 metals tracked
⚑ Caution
-0.10%
Best
Copper
+1.24%
Worst
Aluminium
-0.60%
Copper gained 1.24% to 6.3985 USD/lb while LME inventories and China demand indicators remained unreleased.
Competing Energy
5 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-3.44%
Best
Gold
+0.28%
Worst
Brent Crude
-9.29%
Oil and coal price stability provided no fresh narrative shift for the energy transition metals complex.
Economic & Industry Calendar
China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA
Time (AEST) Ctry Event Impact Prior Forecast
04:50USPresident Trump SpeaksMedium——
13:05AURBA Gov Bullock SpeaksHigh——
Risks & Watch Items
Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch
POLICYUS 2027 Chinese mineral phase-out deadline remains unaddressed with domestic magnet capacity still at 300 t.
SUPPLYMonitor SMM and Fastmarkets for any intraday lithium or rare earth producer disclosures.
MACRONext China industrial output release could alter lithium and copper price direction.
GEOOngoing DRC cobalt and graphite legacy issues remain resolved with no fresh impact.
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