While You Slept/Critical Minerals archive← Tue 28 Jul 2026Thu 30 Jul 2026 →Free by email
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While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition  ·  AI Buildout  ·  The Materials That Power Both
PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗  ·  WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2026  ·  WYS EDITION 054
Data as of  Tuesday 28 July 2026 close  ·  Generated  29 July 2026  7:00 AM AEST  ·  S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017
Commodity Prices
Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals
↳ Background Context
Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite
Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets
Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium
Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum
Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron
Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.
Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy
Supply & Demand Signals
Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals
POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish
DRC imposes cobalt export quota, creating supply gap
DRC's new export quota has introduced a projected supply deficit for cobalt through 2035. This policy shift by the dominant producer has driven cobalt prices up ~130% amid tight supply conditions. The move underscores risks from geographic concentration in critical minerals.
SUPPLY Lithium ▼ Bearish
CATL's Jianxiawo mine secures restart permit
CATL obtained the final safety production permit for its large Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in Jiangxi, China, idle since August 2025. Restart expected as early as September 2026, potentially adding 37kt LCE in 2026 (~1.5% global supply). This increases near-term supply outlook amid already retreating prices.
POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish
China's heavy rare earth export controls persist
April 2025 controls on seven heavy rare earths, expanded in October 2025, remain a key risk with suspension until November 2026. Full implementation could threaten USD 6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China. Prices for dysprosium and terbium in Europe are ~5x Chinese domestic levels.
POLICY Graphite ▲ Bullish
China export controls on battery-grade graphite
October 2025 Chinese controls on graphite anode materials and precursors continue to tighten supply chains. Full disruption could put over USD 300 billion of annual downstream battery production outside China at risk. Mozambique also introduced new graphite export restrictions.
PRICE Gallium ▲ Bullish
Gallium prices diverge sharply due to export controls
Export controls have caused gallium prices in Europe to reach ~5x Chinese domestic levels. The metal ranks among the highest-risk materials in IEA assessments alongside germanium and heavy rare earths amid ongoing supply concentration concerns.
PRICE Copper ▲ Bullish
Copper prices hit records amid persistent deficits
Copper prices rose one-third from Jan 2025 to April 2026, reaching record highs on tight supply. Projected 2035 supply deficit narrowed slightly to 25% with new projects in DRC/Zambia, but gaps remain significant.
Analysis
Overnight Briefing
Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight macro showed a 0.05% decline in the USD Index to 101.42 alongside a 0.16% drop in AUD/USD to 0.6976, producing negligible pressure on critical minerals pricing with most metals flat except lithium hydroxide rising 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t. The absence of fresh China PMI data or industrial output releases left commodity flows driven solely by the isolated supply signal rather than broad demand shifts. Para 2 centers on the Lundin Mining Caserones outage in Chile’s Atacama region where power loss since July 18 has idled operations with Bloomberg Intelligence estimating 10000 tonnes of copper output at risk during the two-to-three-week repair window for damaged transmission towers. Para 3 highlights Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN) as the primary equity exposure given its full-year guidance maintenance despite the curtailment while nearby Candelaria returned to full capacity using stockpiles with no other ASX or TSX names reporting comparable impacts.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite
LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 0.68% to 145500 CNY/t while lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t on SMM data with no gigafactory or offtake announcements from CATL or BYD.
NICKELNickel traded up 0.10% to 17197.5 USD/t with no production guidance revisions from major nickel miners or battery demand releases overnight.
Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind
CHINA|EXPORTExisting Chinese MOFCOM rare-earth export licensing expansions for samarium gadolinium and lutetium compounds remain in force with implementation timelines extending to November 2026 and no new quotas announced.
NDFEБNeodymium oxide held steady at 176.0 USD/kg with no fresh magnet demand data or Chinese policy shifts reported in the window.
Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk
GALLIUM|GERMANIUMGallium at 288.82 USD/kg and germanium at 3417.36 USD/kg showed no movement amid ongoing dual-use export controls with no new MIIT entity-list additions.
ANTIMONYAntimony traded flat at 7350.0 USD/t with no defence supply chain or export control developments overnight.
Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation
USDUSD Index slipped 0.05% to 101.42 producing limited translation effects on USD-denominated critical minerals contracts.
CHINANo China PMI or industrial output releases appeared overnight leaving domestic pricing data from SMM and Antaike without macro linkage.
Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers
Medium Impact 2–4 years
Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk
CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.
Affects: battery
Low Impact 3–5 years
Solid-State Battery Commercialisation
Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.
Affects: battery
High Impact Active
China Critical Mineral Export Controls
China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.
Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery
Low Impact Ongoing
US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives
Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.
Affects: battery, rare_earth
Market Watch
ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium4.040▼ 4.94%▼ 6.70%—
MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron53.100▼ 2.93%▼ 6.48%—
LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium1.200▼ 2.04%▼ 9.77%—
IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel6.990▲ 3.56%▲ 5.11%—
WR1.AXWinsome ResourcesLithium————
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths14.680▼ 1.28%▼ 7.61%—
ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths0.350▼ 7.89%▲ 2.94%—
PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium9.150▼ 4.39%▲ 8.67%—
BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium1.225▼ 4.67%▲ 0.82%—
SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper18.430▼ 4.21%▲ 4.48%—
29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc0.245▼ 2.00%▲ 11.36%—
ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon6.130▲ 5.15%▲ 0.33%—
AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium0.041▼ 4.65%▼ 2.38%—
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium0.041▼ 4.65%▼ 2.38%—
GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium0.280▼ 5.08%▼ 3.45%—
VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium2.560▼ 3.03%▼ 4.83%—
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium0.040▼ 4.76%▲ 0.00%—
WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium0.340▼ 5.56%▼ 10.53%—
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium0.275▲ 0.00%▼ 3.51%—
GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium0.520▲ 1.96%▲ 10.64%—
PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium0.430▼ 4.44%▼ 1.15%—
ASX Materials · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▲ 5.15%
IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▲ 3.56%
GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 1.96%
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▲ 0.00%
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 1.28%
▼ Top Losers
ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 7.89%
WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 5.56%
GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▼ 5.08%
PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▼ 4.94%
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 4.76%
20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close
US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths41.280▼ 4.29%▼ 8.75%—
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE11.330▼ 3.25%▼ 1.39%—
CCJCamecoUranium86.960▼ 2.67%▲ 1.57%—
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron91.640▼ 0.34%▲ 1.65%—
LACLithium AmericasLithium2.770▼ 4.48%▼ 6.10%—
SQMSQMLithium66.870▼ 2.79%▼ 4.21%—
NEMNewmontGold/Copper91.520▼ 2.09%▲ 2.03%—
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper61.640▼ 1.72%▲ 5.58%—
VALEValeNickel/Iron14.700▼ 0.54%▲ 3.59%—
NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.34%
VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 0.54%
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 1.72%
NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 2.09%
CCJCamecoUranium▲ 2.67%
▼ Top Losers
LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 4.48%
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 4.29%
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 3.25%
SQMSQMLithium▼ 2.79%
CCJCamecoUranium▼ 2.67%
9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close
TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc34.720▼ 2.72%▲ 4.70%—
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper37.510▼ 2.32%▲ 1.96%—
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper13.110▼ 0.15%▲ 7.37%—
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium12.940▼ 1.30%▲ 4.78%—
DML.TODenison MinesUranium3.900▼ 5.11%▼ 1.76%—
TSX · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 0.15%
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 1.30%
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 2.32%
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 2.72%
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 5.11%
▼ Top Losers
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 5.11%
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 2.72%
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 2.32%
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 1.30%
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 0.15%
5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close
HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt16.840▲ 0.12%▲ 3.38%—
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc8.340▲ 0.48%▲ 9.31%—
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE8.330▲ 0.36%▲ 5.84%—
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold1.140▲ 0.00%▲ 1.79%—
HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.48%
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 0.36%
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 0.12%
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%
▼ Top Losers
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 0.12%
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 0.36%
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.48%
4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close
Calendar & Risks
Metal Category Scorecard
Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers
Battery Metals
6 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+0.56%
Best
Lithium Hydroxide
+3.40%
Worst
Lithium Carb.
-0.68%
Lithium hydroxide gained 3.40% while carbonate slipped 0.68% on SMM data with no gigafactory or EV demand releases from CATL or BYD.
Rare Earths
5 metals tracked
— No Change Data
No change data this session
5 metal price(s) available — no change data
Neodymium oxide remained at 176.0 USD/kg amid ongoing Chinese export controls on samarium gadolinium and lutetium compounds with no new policy moves.
Strategic Metals
5 metals tracked
— No Change Data
No change data this session
5 metal price(s) available — no change data
Gallium germanium and antimony prices held flat with no new export licensing changes or entity-list additions from MIIT.
Energy Metals
2 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-1.45%
Best
Uranium (U3O8)
+0.29%
Worst
Nat. Gas
-3.18%
Uranium rose 0.29% to 86.3 USD/lb with no contracting updates or vanadium price movement at 13.47 USD/kg.
Base Metals
6 metals tracked
⚑ Caution
-0.22%
Best
Tin
+1.04%
Worst
Zinc
-1.11%
Copper at 6.338 USD/lb showed minimal change as the Caserones outage remains the sole Tier-1 curtailment signal.
Competing Energy
5 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-2.49%
Best
Iron Ore
-0.07%
Worst
Brent Crude
-5.12%
No oil gas or coal price data moved overnight leaving transition narrative unaffected by energy complex shifts.
Economic & Industry Calendar
China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA
Time (AEST) Ctry Event Impact Prior Forecast
00:00USCB Consumer ConfidenceMedium91.292.4
11:30AUCPI m/mHigh-0.7%0.2%
11:30AUCPI y/yHigh4.0%4.0%
11:30AUTrimmed Mean CPI m/mHigh0.4%0.3%
Risks & Watch Items
Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch
SUPPLYMonitor Lundin Mining Caserones grid reconnection timeline as backup generators maintain only essential infrastructure during road clearing.
POLICYWatch for any delayed November 2026 implementation updates on Chinese rare-earth export licensing for samarium gadolinium and lutetium compounds.
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