WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 7 Aug 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 7 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 061

Data as of Thursday 6 August 2026 close · Generated 7 August 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

POLICY Germanium ▲ Bullish

Lockheed seeks US germanium supply amid China diversification push

Lockheed Martin is negotiating with Teck Resources and 5N Plus for germanium supplies from North American sources to reduce reliance on China, following Trump administration pressure on defense contractors. Pricing and contract terms remain key hurdles in ongoing talks that have lasted over a year. This signals strengthening Western supply chain efforts for the critical mineral used in military tech.

DEMAND Copper ▲ Bullish

US July copper imports surge as tariff decision looms

Over 200,000 tons of copper arrived at US ports in July, the highest monthly volume in a decade, driven by tariff speculation and LME backwardation. Prices have rallied 12% YTD amid AI and energy transition demand, with US inventories building while global availability tightens. Smelter fees hit record lows, pressuring non-Chinese capacity.

POLICY Lithium ● Neutral

Australian lithium miners advance domestic refining plans

Australian producers are shifting from raw ore exports to China toward building local battery material processing capacity to capture more value. This follows recent operational restarts and restructuring at key mines like Sigma's Grota do Cirilo. The move could ease downstream supply concentration risks.

SUPPLY Nickel ▲ Bullish

Indonesia tightens nickel output quotas for 2026

Indonesia, producing two-thirds of global nickel, is delaying permits, slashing quotas, and enforcing stricter environmental rules, including temporary halts at operations like PT Vale. This policy pivot aims to support prices amid earlier oversupply concerns. Nickel prices have responded with gains above $17,000/t.

POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC export quotas create new cobalt supply gap outlook

The IEA's 2026 Critical Minerals Outlook highlights emerging cobalt deficits due to DRC export restrictions, reversing prior surplus projections. Prices rose ~130% on these curbs amid concentrated supply. This policy shift underscores rapid market impacts from major producer actions.

PRICE Gallium ▲ Bullish

Gallium and germanium prices diverge sharply outside China

IEA reports European gallium prices ~5x higher than Chinese domestic levels due to export controls and demand growth, with germanium nearly 3x higher. Strategic minor minerals prices have more than doubled since 2024 amid new restrictions. This highlights acute supply security challenges for non-Chinese buyers.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index rose 0.27% to 99.96 while AUD/USD fell 0.33% to 0.7034, supporting flat-to-higher USD-denominated prices for copper at 6.72 USD/lb and tungsten at 665.57 USD/mtu. Lithium hydroxide slipped 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t amid the broader risk-off tone in S&P 500. These moves set a mildly supportive backdrop for physical supply constraints rather than demand-driven rallies. Freeport-McMoRan’s PT Freeport Indonesia Grasberg Block Cave mine remains under force majeure after the September 2025 fatality, with 591 kt of copper output lost through end-2026 (278 kt in 2025, 313 kt in 2026) and only 65% capacity restoration targeted for H2 2026. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analysis now projects a steep global refined copper deficit in 2026 as a direct result. Glencore simultaneously cut its 2026 copper guidance to 840 kt from 930 kt citing Collahuasi issues, tightening near-term availability further. Freeport-McMoRan and Glencore face the largest immediate exposure through Grasberg and Collahuasi output shortfalls, while Rio Tinto’s ongoing merger commentary with Glencore highlights potential consolidation of the affected copper assets; ASX-listed copper producers with Indonesian or Chilean exposure will see the tightest linkage to the 2026 deficit forecast.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium hydroxide prices fell 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t with no fresh Chinese domestic spot movement reported overnight.

COBALTCobalt remained at 56290 USD/t with zero price change and no new supply or demand signals from major producers.

NICKELNickel held steady at 16725 USD/t; no new LME inventory or Indonesian export data emerged in the last 18 hours.

EVUS BIS temporary final rule effective 27 August 2026 mandates 100% domestic allocation of black mass for one year, restricting exports.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEБNeodymium oxide remained cached at 176 USD/kg with no fresh Chinese export or magnet demand data released overnight.

CHINANo new Chinese rare earth export quota adjustments or domestic pricing moves reported in the last 12-18 hours.

SUPPLYNo mine outages or production cuts announced for rare earth operations globally in the overnight window.

MAGNETNo gigafactory or NdFeB magnet demand announcements surfaced from SVOLT or Tesla facilities.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

TUNGSTENUS BIS rule requires 100% domestic allocation of tungsten waste/scrap effective 27 August 2026 for one year under Defense Production Act.

POLICYGallium held at 237.42 USD/kg and germanium at 3104.31 USD/kg with no new Chinese export control announcements.

ANTIMONYAntimony traded flat at 25450 USD/t; no fresh supply restrictions or policy shifts reported from China.

EXPORTNo additional export bans on gallium, germanium or antimony issued in the last 18 hours.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index climbed 0.27% to 99.96, providing mild support for USD-denominated critical mineral prices.

CHINAChina PMI data release remains absent, leaving domestic demand signals for copper and battery metals unchanged overnight.

RATESS&P 500 declined 0.18% to 7710 amid broader risk-off sentiment with limited immediate translation to physical mineral demand.

TRADECNY/USD at 6.7483 showed minimal movement, offering no new impetus for Chinese import arbitrage.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.300	▼ 0.69%	▲ 6.44%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	61.800	▲ 1.76%	▲ 16.38%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.080	▲ 1.89%	▼ 10.00%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.250	▲ 0.69%	▲ 3.72%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	15.700	▲ 0.71%	▲ 6.95%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.355	▲ 12.70%	▲ 1.43%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.830	▼ 1.60%	▲ 7.43%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.330	▼ 1.12%	▲ 8.57%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	20.860	▲ 1.02%	▲ 13.19%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.295	▲ 3.51%	▲ 20.41%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.780	▲ 1.04%	▲ 10.60%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.044	▼ 2.22%	▲ 7.32%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.046	▼ 4.17%	▲ 12.20%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.305	▲ 1.67%	▲ 8.93%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.740	▼ 0.36%	▲ 7.03%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.044	▲ 0.00%	▲ 10.00%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.375	▲ 4.17%	▲ 10.29%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.290	▼ 1.69%	▲ 5.45%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.510	▼ 0.97%	▼ 1.92%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.430	▼ 1.15%	▲ 0.00%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 12.70%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 4.17%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 3.51%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▲ 1.89%

MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron▲ 1.76%

▼ Top Losers

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 4.17%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 2.22%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 1.69%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▼ 1.60%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 1.15%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	47.490	▼ 0.88%	▲ 15.04%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	12.900	▲ 3.70%	▲ 13.86%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	93.620	▼ 0.69%	▲ 7.66%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	99.650	▼ 1.83%	▲ 8.74%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.020	▼ 2.27%	▲ 9.03%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	72.450	▲ 3.43%	▲ 8.34%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	105.430	▲ 1.09%	▲ 15.20%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	68.180	▼ 1.74%	▲ 10.61%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.720	▼ 1.47%	▲ 0.14%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 3.70%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 3.43%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 1.09%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 0.69%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 0.88%

▼ Top Losers

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 2.27%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 1.83%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 1.74%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 1.47%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 0.88%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	37.590	▼ 3.04%	▲ 5.32%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	42.000	▼ 1.48%	▲ 9.38%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	14.980	▼ 1.45%	▲ 14.09%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.310	▲ 1.71%	▲ 9.15%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.370	▲ 0.92%	▲ 6.33%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 1.71%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.92%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.45%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 1.48%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 3.04%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 3.04%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 1.48%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.45%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.92%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 1.71%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	18.470	▲ 8.65%	▲ 9.68%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.060	▲ 6.34%	▲ 8.63%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.645	▲ 3.04%	▲ 3.78%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.130	▲ 0.44%	▼ 0.88%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 8.65%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 6.34%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 3.04%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.44%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.44%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 3.04%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 6.34%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 8.65%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-2.10%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

-2.10%

Worst

Lithium Hydroxide

-2.10%

Lithium hydroxide fell 2.10% while cobalt and nickel held flat; US black mass allocation rule effective August 2026 is the dominant policy signal.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide remained cached at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese pricing, export quota or magnet demand updates overnight.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+4.87%

Best

Tungsten (APT)

+9.60%

Worst

Indium

+0.14%

US BIS rule mandates 100% domestic allocation of tungsten waste/scrap from 27 August 2026, directly restricting exports.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.03%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.06%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-2.12%

Uranium edged up 0.06% to 86.35 USD/lb with no new contracting or production data released.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.68%

Best

Tin

+1.30%

Worst

Copper

+0.25%

Copper rose 0.25% to 6.72 USD/lb as Grasberg 591 kt loss and Glencore guidance cut tighten 2026 supply outlook.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+2.10%

Best

Brent Crude

+5.35%

Worst

Silver

-0.52%

No material oil/gas price moves reported that would alter the energy transition cost narrative overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
22:30	US	Average Hourly Earnings m/m	High	0.3%	0.3%
22:30	US	Non-Farm Employment Change	High	57K	85K
22:30	US	Unemployment Rate	High	4.2%	4.2%

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYMonitor Grasberg Block Cave restart progress toward 65% capacity in H2 2026 and any further delays into 2027.

POLICYTrack implementation of US black mass and tungsten allocation rule effective 27 August 2026 and any retaliatory export measures.

GEOWatch Rio Tinto-Glencore merger discussions for potential consolidation of copper assets affected by Collahuasi and Grasberg issues.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.