WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 14 Aug 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 14 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 066

Data as of Thursday 13 August 2026 close · Generated 14 August 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Copper ▲ Bullish

Copper Hits Record Highs on Structural Demand and Supply Constraints

Copper prices reached new highs amid tightening concentrate markets and slow mine supply growth, particularly in Chile. Strong demand from AI, defense, and infrastructure collides with constrained supply, boosting miner leverage via low treatment charges.

PRICE Gallium ▼ Bearish

Gallium Prices Edge Lower to 1,815 CNY/Kg

Gallium traded at 1,815 CNY/Kg on August 13, down 0.55% daily and 8.1% over the past month, though still up 13% year-over-year. Minor price softening amid broader critical minerals volatility.

SUPPLY Nickel ▲ Bullish

Over 20% of Nickel Supply Now Loss-Making

Benchmark analysis shows more than one-fifth of nickel production is cash-negative at current prices around $15,000/tonne. Prolonged low prices could trigger supply cuts, providing price support.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index at 99.97 and CNY/USD at 6.7423 showed negligible overnight shifts, leaving critical minerals prices largely range-bound with only tungsten posting a 23.10% decline to 891.43 USD/mtu. Copper eased 0.21% to 6.583 USD/lb despite S&P 500 gains of 0.65%. Antofagasta cut full-year 2026 copper guidance by up to 45,000 tonnes to 625,000–655,000 tonnes after weather-driven shutdowns at Los Pelambres reduced H1 output 9% to 285,000 tonnes, while Antaike flagged Chinese refined copper output falling for a second month on feedstock shortages with treatment charges at minus $175.7 per tonne. Antofagasta shares on the LSE face immediate volume exposure from the Los Pelambres curtailment and pipeline repairs, while ASX copper names linked to concentrate markets absorb the downstream impact of record-low Chinese treatment charges.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 0.34% to 147500 CNY/t and lithium hydroxide dropped 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t with no overnight supply disruptions reported.

EVGeneral Motors and LG Energy Solution will restart Ultium Cells Warren Ohio battery production next week recalling 1400 workers.

GIGAFACTORYLithium Americas confirmed Thacker Pass Phase 1 construction on track for 40000 tpa lithium carbonate mechanical completion in late 2027 with capex unchanged at 1.3-1.6 billion USD.

NICKELNickel closed at 16760 USD/t down 0.77% with no new mine or export developments overnight.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINAChina rare earth exports totaled 4224 tonnes in July for a YTD 34706 tonnes down 10% YoY under ongoing rules-based oversight.

EXPORTNo fresh rare earth export quotas or restrictions were announced overnight.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide held at 176 USD/kg with no price movement reported.

SUPPLYNo new rare earth mine outages or force majeure declarations occurred overnight.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

TUNGSTENTungsten APT fell 23.10% to 891.43 USD/mtu with no accompanying policy or supply announcement.

ANTIMONYAntimony held at 25450 USD/t with no export control changes reported.

GALLIUMGallium remained at 236.91 USD/kg with no overnight movement or policy signals.

GERMANIUMGermanium closed at 3104.31 USD/kg unchanged amid stable Chinese domestic pricing.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index at 99.97 down 0.04% provided minimal pressure on critical minerals pricing.

CHINAChina PMI data remained absent overnight leaving industrial demand signals unchanged.

TRADENo new tariffs or trade policy shifts affecting critical minerals were announced.

RATESStable AUD/USD at 0.7062 and CNY/USD at 6.7423 left currency-driven cost pressures flat.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.860	▼ 0.41%	▲ 13.55%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	65.520	▼ 1.61%	▲ 10.36%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.230	▼ 1.20%	▲ 19.42%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.880	▼ 2.35%	▲ 10.83%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.630	▼ 1.71%	▲ 11.16%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.350	▼ 1.41%	▲ 9.37%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.610	▼ 1.67%	▲ 10.64%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.500	▼ 1.32%	▲ 15.38%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	21.120	▼ 2.09%	▲ 6.13%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.310	▼ 4.62%	▲ 16.98%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.210	▼ 2.57%	▲ 10.41%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.046	▼ 4.17%	▲ 2.22%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.046	▲ 2.22%	▲ 4.55%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.340	▼ 5.56%	▲ 17.24%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.960	▼ 4.52%	▲ 8.03%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.049	▼ 5.77%	▲ 13.95%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.415	▲ 0.00%	▲ 18.57%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.295	▼ 3.28%	▲ 5.36%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.740	▼ 3.90%	▲ 43.69%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.505	▼ 0.98%	▲ 13.48%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 2.22%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▲ 0.41%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▲ 0.98%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▲ 1.20%

▼ Top Losers

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 5.77%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▼ 5.56%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▼ 4.62%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▼ 4.52%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 4.17%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	55.660	▲ 2.86%	▲ 17.25%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.580	▲ 0.76%	▲ 13.37%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	97.750	▼ 1.29%	▲ 5.01%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	98.200	▼ 2.98%	▼ 0.82%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.430	▲ 5.21%	▲ 11.36%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	72.160	▲ 1.28%	▲ 5.22%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	114.190	▼ 3.10%	▲ 16.84%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	66.830	▼ 3.45%	▼ 0.70%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	13.800	▼ 4.30%	▼ 6.95%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 5.21%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 2.86%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 1.28%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 0.76%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 1.29%

▼ Top Losers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 4.30%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 3.45%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 3.10%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 2.98%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 1.29%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	35.080	▼ 4.00%	▼ 6.95%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	43.240	▼ 2.13%	▲ 2.66%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	15.360	▼ 3.15%	▲ 6.37%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.450	▼ 1.70%	▲ 5.47%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.540	▼ 1.09%	▲ 8.10%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 1.09%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 1.70%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 2.13%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 3.15%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 4.00%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 4.00%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 3.15%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 2.13%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 1.70%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 1.09%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	18.100	▲ 1.12%	▲ 8.06%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	8.880	▼ 1.17%	▲ 4.84%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.780	▲ 2.69%	▲ 6.30%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.130	▲ 0.00%	▼ 3.42%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 2.69%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.12%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 1.17%

▼ Top Losers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 1.17%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.12%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 2.69%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.67%

Best

Cobalt

0.00%

Worst

Lithium Hydroxide

-2.10%

Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices declined overnight while GM restarts Ultium battery cell production next week supporting EV demand.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Chinese rare earth exports fell 10% YoY through July with no new policy restrictions or price movements in neodymium oxide.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-23.10%

Best

Tungsten (APT)

-23.10%

Worst

Tungsten (APT)

-23.10%

Tungsten APT dropped 23.10% while gallium germanium and antimony prices held flat with no export control updates.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.19%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.29%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-2.67%

Uranium rose 0.29% to 87.15 USD/lb and vanadium held at 13.47 USD/kg with no contracting or supply signals.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.31%

Best

Zinc

+0.78%

Worst

Aluminium

-1.94%

Copper output guidance cuts at Antofagasta and Chinese smelter feedstock shortages tightened near-term supply with prices easing 0.21%.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.25%

Best

Iron Ore

+0.01%

Worst

Crude Oil (WTI)

-2.49%

Stable energy prices provided no fresh pressure on the metals transition narrative overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
09:30	AU	RBA Gov Bullock Speaks	Medium	—	—
22:30	US	Core Retail Sales m/m	Medium	-0.2%	0.2%
22:30	US	Retail Sales m/m	Medium	0.2%	0.1%

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYLos Pelambres pipeline and water management repairs continue after weather shutdown.

POLICYChina refining rules-based oversight of rare earth exports with July volumes down 10% YoY.

MACROAbsence of China PMI data leaves industrial demand signals for critical minerals unrefreshed.

GEONo new force majeure declarations or export bans reported in lithium cobalt nickel or graphite overnight.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.