WYS Critical Minerals · Thu 13 Aug 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 13 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 065

Data as of Wednesday 12 August 2026 close · Generated 13 August 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Copper ▲ Bullish

Copper Hits Record Highs on Supply Tightening

Copper futures climbed toward record levels above $6.7/lb amid signs of tightening global supply, constrained mine output, and DRC copper concentrate export ban. Traders also weigh potential US import tariffs redirecting metal flows. Long-term outlook remains supported by electrification and AI data center demand.

SUPPLY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

US DoD Backs Australian Scandium Mine with $400M Loan

Sunrise Energy Metals shares surged up to 29% after securing $400 million conditional loan commitment from US Department of Defense Office of Strategic Capital for its Syerston scandium project. Move aims to challenge China's dominance in rare earths processing and supply chains.

POLICY Lithium ▼ Bearish

China Ends Lithium-Ion Battery Tax Exemption

From September 1 2026, China will impose a 2% consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries to address overcapacity. Sodium-ion batteries retain exemptions, potentially shifting demand away from lithium chemistries in domestic market.

SUPPLY Nickel ▲ Bullish

Over 20% of Nickel Supply Now Loss-Making

Benchmark analysis shows more than one-fifth of nickel production is cash-negative at current prices, particularly non-integrated Indonesian smelters and older operations. Prolonged low prices below $15k/t could trigger meaningful supply cuts.

DEMAND Lithium ▲ Bullish

Lithium Prices Surge on China EV and Storage Demand

Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply this week amid record China EV sales and strong stationary storage growth. Global lithium consumption grew 45% through May 2026, exceeding forecasts, with battery storage providing additional demand tailwinds despite some EV sales softness.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index advanced 0.15% to 99.97 while AUD/USD held at 0.7065 and CNY/USD eased 0.03%, leaving critical minerals prices largely unchanged except for lithium hydroxide falling 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t and tungsten APT dropping 23.10% to 891.43 USD/mtu. Macro stability produced no immediate pricing pressure across lithium carbonate at 148000 CNY/t, cobalt at 56290 USD/t or nickel at 16890 USD/t. Para 2: No Tier 1 mine outages, export bans or demand shocks occurred in the August 12-13 2026 window, with the June 2026 DRC inter-ministerial order on copper-cobalt concentrates and prior Codelco El Teniente rock-burst losses of tens of thousands of tonnes generating no incremental updates. Octillion Power Systems commissioned its third Indian EV battery plant in Halol, Gujarat, adding over 3 GWh annual capacity at full run-rate. Para 3: Teck Resources reported continued construction progress on the Highland Valley Copper mine-life extension with no guidance revisions, while ASX and TSX names tied to lithium hydroxide and tungsten APT faced the largest price moves without fresh company announcements.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium hydroxide prices fell 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t with no new supply or offtake data from CATL or BYD.

EVOctillion Power Systems opened its third India plant in Halol adding over 3 GWh annual battery capacity.

COBALTCobalt remained at 56290 USD/t as the June 2026 DRC concentrate export ban produced no overnight updates.

NICKELNickel held steady at 16890 USD/t with zero fresh inventory or production figures from major refiners.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEБNeodymium oxide stayed at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese policy or magnet demand releases overnight.

CHINANo new MIIT or MOFCOM export quota adjustments appeared for rare earths in the 12-18 hour window.

SUPPLYSearches returned no force majeure or shutdowns at any rare earth operations in the target period.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

TUNGSTENTungsten APT prices dropped 23.10% to 891.43 USD/mtu with no named producer or export policy trigger.

GALLIUMGallium held at 237.51 USD/kg absent any fresh Chinese export control announcements.

GERMANIUMGermanium remained at 3104.31 USD/kg with zero policy or supply chain updates reported.

ANTIMONYAntimony stayed at 25450 USD/t with no new export licence changes from producer countries.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.15% to 99.97 leaving most critical minerals prices flat except tungsten and lithium hydroxide.

CHINAChina PMI data were not released overnight and produced no immediate pricing reaction in the sector.

TRADENo new tariffs or trade actions affecting critical minerals surfaced in the August 12-13 window.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.880	▲ 4.27%	▲ 19.61%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	66.590	▲ 2.10%	▲ 15.35%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.245	▲ 5.51%	▲ 25.76%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	8.070	▲ 3.46%	▲ 16.62%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.920	▲ 1.26%	▲ 20.51%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.355	▲ 0.00%	▲ 4.41%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.790	▲ 1.31%	▲ 14.67%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.520	▲ 3.75%	▲ 24.59%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	21.570	▲ 1.17%	▲ 12.64%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.325	▲ 3.17%	▲ 22.64%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.400	▲ 0.27%	▲ 18.97%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.048	▲ 2.13%	▲ 14.29%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.045	▼ 2.17%	▲ 0.00%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.360	▲ 7.46%	▲ 26.32%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	3.100	▲ 0.98%	▲ 18.32%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.052	▼ 8.77%	▲ 26.83%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.415	▲ 6.41%	▲ 25.76%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.305	▼ 1.61%	▲ 17.31%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.770	▲ 22.22%	▲ 49.51%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.510	▲ 0.99%	▲ 21.43%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 22.22%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 7.46%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 6.41%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▲ 5.51%

PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▲ 4.27%

▼ Top Losers

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 8.77%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 2.17%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 1.61%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 0.00%

ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▼ 0.27%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	54.110	▼ 2.05%	▲ 23.43%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.470	▼ 2.10%	▲ 19.09%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	99.030	▲ 0.30%	▲ 10.38%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	101.220	▲ 0.23%	▲ 5.55%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.260	▲ 0.31%	▲ 9.40%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	71.250	▼ 1.34%	▲ 6.30%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	117.840	▲ 0.54%	▲ 23.56%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	69.220	▲ 0.51%	▲ 8.77%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.420	▲ 0.70%	▼ 1.10%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 0.70%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 0.54%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 0.51%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 0.31%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 0.30%

▼ Top Losers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 2.10%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 2.05%

SQMSQMLithium▼ 1.34%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.23%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 0.30%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	36.540	▼ 1.00%	▲ 5.27%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	44.180	▲ 0.09%	▲ 13.69%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	15.860	▲ 1.28%	▲ 19.16%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.700	▲ 0.20%	▲ 14.66%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.590	▲ 0.00%	▲ 16.20%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.28%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 0.20%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 0.09%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.00%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 1.00%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 1.00%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.00%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 0.09%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 0.20%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.28%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	17.900	▼ 5.24%	▲ 5.98%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	8.985	▼ 3.70%	▲ 7.09%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.550	▼ 2.01%	▲ 1.06%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.130	▼ 1.74%	▼ 3.42%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 1.74%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 2.01%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 3.70%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 5.24%

▼ Top Losers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 5.24%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 3.70%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 2.01%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 1.74%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-2.10%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

-2.10%

Worst

Lithium Hydroxide

-2.10%

Lithium hydroxide fell 2.10% while cobalt and nickel stayed flat amid zero new gigafactory or offtake announcements.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide remained at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese pricing, magnet demand or export policy movement overnight.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-23.10%

Best

Tungsten (APT)

-23.10%

Worst

Tungsten (APT)

-23.10%

Tungsten APT declined 23.10% to 891.43 USD/mtu while gallium, germanium and antimony showed no export control changes.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.05%

Best

Nat. Gas

+1.05%

Worst

Nat. Gas

+1.05%

Uranium U3O8 held at 86.9 USD/lb with no fresh contracting or production data reported.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.32%

Best

Aluminium

+0.73%

Worst

Copper

-0.09%

Copper eased 0.09% to 6.606 USD/lb as LME inventory and China demand signals stayed absent from overnight coverage.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.45%

Best

Gold

+1.94%

Worst

Crude Oil (WTI)

-0.73%

No oil, gas or coal price moves appeared in the data to alter the energy transition narrative for critical minerals.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
16:00	GB	GDP m/m	High	0.1%	0.0%
16:00	GB	Prelim GDP q/q	Medium	0.6%	0.4%
22:30	US	Core PPI m/m	High	0.2%	0.3%
22:30	US	PPI m/m	High	-0.3%	0.2%
22:30	US	Unemployment Claims	Medium	199K	202K

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYOngoing DRC copper-cobalt concentrate export prohibition from June 2026 remains the primary policy overhang without overnight updates.

GEOCodelco El Teniente rock-burst losses previously quantified in tens of thousands of tonnes continue to influence copper commentary.

MACROTungsten APT 23.10% price drop requires confirmation of any unreported producer action before next session.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.