WYS Critical Minerals · Thu 10 Sep 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 · WYS EDITION 085

Data as of Wednesday 9 September 2026 close · Generated 10 September 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Copper ▲ Bullish

Copper Hits Record Highs on Tight Supply and Tariff Fears

Copper extended gains to all-time peaks near $14,635/t on LME amid constrained near-term mine supply and expectations of US tariffs on refined imports. Stocks drained as refined metal shifted to the US, amplifying backwardation and supporting a 17% YTD rally driven by data centers, renewables, and grids.

DEMAND Lithium ▲ Bullish

Lithium Miners Benefit from Battery Storage Demand Surge

Major producers like Albemarle, SQM, Tianqi, and Ganfeng reported strong earnings on higher realized prices and volumes, with battery storage driving demand growth. Analysts forecast tight 2026 balance or deficit, with prices elevated due to prior supply shocks and persistent downstream needs.

POLICY Battery Metals ▲ Bullish

China Export Curbs Trigger Battery Metal Price Spikes

China's systematic export controls on critical battery metals and rare earths have caused ex-China price surges up to 6,000% for some elements, prompting Western supply chain shifts and a $439M government response. Restrictions on graphite, cathodes, and REEs heighten vulnerabilities for non-Chinese manufacturers.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

Global Copper Mine Supply Faces First Annual Decline Since 2017

H1 2026 mine output fell 1.1% with concentrate production down 2.6%, hit by issues in Chile, Indonesia's Grasberg, and DRC's Kamoa-Kakula. China's August imports slumped to six-year low for the month, while US stockpiles built on tariff expectations.

SUPPLY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC Cobalt Export Quota Tightens Supply Amid Price Recovery

DRC's quota system (replacing prior ban) limits exports to ~96,600t annually, driving hydroxide prices up over 4x and creating modeled 2026 deficits. Chinese refiners face reduced feedstock, with payables on Indonesian MHP dropping sharply as supply recovers slowly.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

China Rare Earth Export Controls Sustain Price Divergence

Expanded Chinese controls on heavy REEs and related tech (suspended until Nov 2026) have caused ex-China prices for dysprosium, terbium, and others to rise 5x or more vs domestic levels. Automakers and downstream sectors face ongoing risks if measures fully activate.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight USD Index at 98.79 ▼0.05% and CNY/USD at 6.6977 ▼0.19% coincided with S&P 500 ▼0.48%, lifting copper 1.70% to 6.8535 USD/lb while lithium carbonate slipped 0.68% to 145750 CNY/t and spodumene SC6 fell 2.75% to 2120 USD/t. The modest USD softening provided little offset to China-linked lithium price pressure. CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine curtailment after EIA revocation cut 2026 output guidance 49% or 30,500 t LCE to 32,000 t LCE, compounding Albemarle Chile labor vote risk at Atacama and La Negra plus extended maintenance at Zambia’s Mopani and Chambishi smelters that will trim refined copper output below Mopani’s 225 kt capacity. Albemarle faces direct exposure at its Chilean brine and processing assets where a rejected wage deal could repeat the 35-day 2021 strike, while China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group’s 85% stake in Chambishi and CATL’s offline Jianxiawo operation leave those entities most immediately affected by the supply shortfalls.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMCATL Jianxiawo mine stays in care and maintenance after EIA revocation, cutting 2026 output 49% to 32,000 t LCE.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 0.68% to 145750 CNY/t and spodumene SC6 dropped 2.75% to 2120 USD/t on supply concerns.

EVGlobal EV battery installations Jan-Jul 2026 reached 726 GWh with CATL at 39.9% share and Chinese producers at 72.8% combined.

COBALTDRC cobalt export quota of 96,600 t annual plus concentrate restrictions continue to constrain supply with limited waivers.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEБNeodymium oxide closed at 101.29 USD/kg ▼0.31% with no new Chinese policy moves reported.

SUPPLYNo overnight export controls or magnet supply announcements from China or elsewhere.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium rose 0.03% to 232.87 USD/kg.

GERMANIUMGermanium advanced 0.47% to 3486.46 USD/kg.

ANTIMONYAntimony climbed 1.54% to 11511.9 USD/t.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index at 98.79 ▼0.05% supported minor gains in USD-priced copper and uranium.

CHINACNY/USD at 6.6977 ▼0.19% with no new PMI data released overnight.

TRADENo new export bans or force majeure declarations from China, DRC, Indonesia or Russia.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.010	▲ 1.62%	▼ 7.22%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	62.870	▲ 0.43%	▼ 2.72%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.210	▲ 1.26%	▼ 1.22%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	8.110	▼ 0.73%	▼ 6.67%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	15.470	▼ 0.19%	▼ 2.95%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.350	▼ 1.41%	▼ 1.41%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	11.730	▲ 0.51%	▲ 1.03%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.615	▲ 5.56%	▲ 13.73%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	22.950	▲ 2.00%	▲ 0.04%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.380	▲ 2.70%	▲ 0.00%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.740	▼ 1.17%	▼ 1.75%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.034	▼ 2.86%	▼ 20.93%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.047	▲ 0.00%	▲ 2.17%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.390	▲ 2.63%	▼ 1.27%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.600	▲ 1.56%	▼ 3.35%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.044	▲ 2.33%	▼ 4.35%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.375	▲ 0.00%	▼ 1.32%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.365	▲ 2.82%	▼ 1.35%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.660	▲ 0.00%	▼ 5.71%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.460	▲ 2.22%	▼ 7.07%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 5.56%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▲ 2.82%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 2.70%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 2.63%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▲ 2.33%

▼ Top Losers

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 2.86%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 1.41%

ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▼ 1.17%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▼ 0.73%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 0.19%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	54.300	▼ 1.93%	▼ 3.26%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.550	▼ 0.48%	▼ 0.82%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	100.410	▼ 1.53%	▲ 0.40%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	103.740	▼ 0.09%	▲ 0.43%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.190	▲ 6.33%	▲ 3.91%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	75.460	▼ 0.26%	▼ 4.03%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	128.710	▲ 1.27%	▲ 0.57%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	76.230	▼ 0.51%	▼ 0.29%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.440	▼ 0.77%	▲ 2.73%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 6.33%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 1.27%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.09%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 0.26%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 0.48%

▼ Top Losers

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 1.93%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 1.53%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 0.77%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 0.51%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 0.48%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	37.260	▼ 0.51%	▼ 4.07%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	46.300	▲ 0.83%	▼ 3.06%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	16.020	▼ 1.11%	▼ 1.05%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.750	▼ 0.07%	▲ 2.15%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.630	▲ 0.22%	▼ 1.70%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 0.83%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.22%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 0.07%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 0.51%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.11%

▼ Top Losers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.11%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 0.51%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 0.07%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.22%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 0.83%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	17.800	▲ 1.08%	▲ 5.64%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.780	▲ 1.66%	▲ 5.90%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.900	▼ 1.44%	▲ 3.85%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.050	▲ 0.00%	▼ 0.94%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 1.66%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.08%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.44%

▼ Top Losers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.44%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.08%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 1.66%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.72%

Best

Lithium Carb.

-0.68%

Worst

Spodumene SC6

-2.75%

Lithium prices fell on Jianxiawo curtailment and Albemarle strike risk while EV battery installations hit 726 GWh with Chinese dominance at 72.8%.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.16%

Best

Terbium Ox.

+0.13%

Worst

Neodymium Oxide

-0.31%

Neodymium oxide eased 0.31% to 101.29 USD/kg with no new Chinese magnet or export policy moves.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.43%

Best

Antimony

+1.54%

Worst

Tungsten (APT)

0.00%

Gallium, germanium and antimony posted small gains of 0.03-1.54% with no fresh export controls announced.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.85%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.17%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-3.88%

Uranium rose 0.17% to 89.65 USD/lb and vanadium held steady at 9.41 USD/kg.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.73%

Best

Copper

+1.70%

Worst

Molybdenum

0.00%

Copper gained 1.70% to 6.8535 USD/lb on Zambia smelter maintenance tightening refined supply.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+2.37%

Best

Crude Oil (WTI)

+3.98%

Worst

Iron Ore

+0.45%

No oil, gas or coal price moves reported that alter the energy transition narrative.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
11:15	US	President Trump Speaks	Medium	—	—
22:15	EU	Main Refinancing Rate	High	2.40%	2.65%
22:15	EU	Monetary Policy Statement	High	—	—
22:30	US	Core PPI m/m	High	0.2%	0.3%
22:30	US	PPI m/m	High	0.0%	0.4%
22:30	US	Unemployment Claims	Medium	206K	205K
22:45	EU	ECB Press Conference	High	—	—

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

RISKOutcome of Albemarle Chile union vote at 9:30 a.m. local time 10 Sep determines strike risk.

SUPPLYZambia smelter maintenance duration and impact on regional sulphuric acid supplies through mid-September.

POLICYDRC cobalt export quota enforcement and any additional waivers remain active constraints.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.