WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 11 Sep 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2026 · WYS EDITION 086

Data as of Thursday 10 September 2026 close · Generated 11 September 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Copper ▲ Bullish

Copper hits fresh record highs on supply tightness and tariff fears

LME three-month copper futures reached all-time highs near $14,533/t amid concerns over 1.1% H1 2026 global mine output decline, concentrate shortages, and potential US tariffs driving inventory shifts to the US. Refined market shows surplus but near-term physical tightness persists with LME stocks draining.

PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish

Lithium prices fall sharply after Chinese inventory data revision

SMM revised Chinese lithium stockpiles upward to 175,000 tons from 78,800 tons using larger sample, triggering >14% drop in lithium carbonate futures over three days. Expectations of rising Australian supply reinforce surplus outlook despite steady EV and storage demand.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

Zambian copper smelters plan extended maintenance shutdowns

Major Zambian smelters including Mopani and Chambishi scheduled for prolonged outages (up to 40-45 days) this year, tightening copper and sulphuric acid supply in the region amid broader mine output weakness.

SUPPLY Lithium ● Neutral

Zimbabwe ships first lithium sulphate, advancing local processing

Prospect Lithium's Arcadia project exported Zimbabwe's first lithium sulphate, marking shift from raw concentrate exports under new policy favoring beneficiation ahead of 2027 raw export ban. Supports higher-value supply chain integration.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

Chinese rare earth firms halt some licensed US shipments

Suppliers paused certain licensed exports to the US ahead of Xi visit amid geopolitical tensions, potentially tightening Western supply and supporting non-Chinese project development.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index at 99.09 (+0.32%) and S&P 500 at 7592 (-0.58%) drove broad selling in base metals overnight, with copper falling 4.05% to 6.528 USD/lb and nickel 0.70% lower at 16757 USD/t while lithium carbonate slipped 0.69% to 144750 CNY/t. Stronger dollar and weaker AUD/USD at 0.7165 (-0.78%) compressed AUD-linked producer margins without offsetting demand data. Key supply events centre on extended Zambian smelter outages at Mopani Copper Mines (40-45 day shutdown) and Chambishi (two-month outage) removing roughly 2 million tonnes of annual sulphuric acid capacity, coinciding with DRC export ban on copper-cobalt concentrates signed 29 June 2026 and Zimbabwe's 10 September lithium concentrate ban covering 1.128 million tonnes of 2025 spodumene exports. CATL's Jianxiawo mine curtailment cuts 2026 LCE output forecast by 30,500 tonnes to 32,000 tonnes after EIA revocation. Glencore, CMOC, Huayou, Zijin and Ivanhoe face direct concentrate export restrictions in DRC while Zimbabwe's ban halts raw mineral shipments; ASX-listed producers with African or Chinese offtake exposure register immediate volume risk without new force-majeure filings in the last 18 hours.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMCATL Jianxiawo mine output forecast cut 49% to 32,000 tonnes LCE for 2026 after EIA revocation.

COBALTDRC export ban on copper-cobalt concentrates effective immediately affects Glencore and CMOC operations.

NICKELNickel price closed at 16757 USD/t down 0.70% with no new supply incidents reported overnight.

EVCATL held 39.9% global EV battery installation share through July while BYD reached 14.7%.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINAChinese rare earth export controls remain scheduled for reimplementation around 10 November 2026.

NDFEBNeodymium oxide price held steady at 101.01 USD/kg with no overnight movement.

EXPORTNo new rare earth export licence data released in the last 18 hours.

SUPPLYBenchmark Mineral Intelligence revised no rare earth mine forecasts overnight.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium price rose 0.07% to 232.94 USD/kg amid ongoing Iran-related acid supply strains.

GERMANIUMGermanium price increased 1.04% to 3487.5 USD/kg with no policy announcements.

ANTIMONYAntimony price unchanged at 11614 USD/t following Zimbabwe raw mineral export suspension.

POLICYZimbabwe suspended all raw mineral exports effective 10 September 2026 including lithium concentrates.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.32% to 99.09 pressuring dollar-denominated critical mineral prices lower.

CHINAChina PMI data absent overnight while CNY/USD eased 0.13% to 6.702.

ENERGYUranium (U3O8) rose 0.39% to 90 USD/lb with no new contracting reported.

TRADEDRC and Zimbabwe export restrictions replace prior frameworks with three-month transition periods.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.880	▼ 2.59%	▼ 10.95%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	61.280	▼ 2.53%	▼ 5.72%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.170	▼ 3.31%	▼ 10.34%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.930	▼ 2.22%	▼ 7.14%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	15.050	▼ 2.71%	▼ 2.84%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.340	▼ 2.86%	▼ 6.85%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	11.370	▼ 3.07%	▼ 2.07%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.540	▼ 4.64%	▲ 5.12%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	22.470	▼ 2.09%	▼ 2.60%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.385	▲ 1.32%	▲ 0.00%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.530	▼ 3.12%	▼ 6.04%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.033	▼ 2.94%	▼ 23.26%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.047	▲ 0.00%	▼ 2.08%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.385	▼ 1.28%	▼ 7.23%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.500	▼ 3.85%	▼ 8.09%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.043	▼ 2.27%	▼ 8.51%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.365	▼ 2.67%	▼ 9.88%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.355	▼ 2.74%	▼ 1.39%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.625	▼ 5.30%	▼ 14.38%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.440	▼ 4.35%	▼ 12.87%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 1.32%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 1.28%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 2.09%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▲ 2.22%

▼ Top Losers

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▼ 5.30%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▼ 4.64%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 4.35%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▼ 3.85%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 3.31%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	51.320	▼ 5.49%	▼ 6.26%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	13.630	▼ 6.32%	▼ 7.59%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	97.420	▼ 2.98%	▼ 1.36%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	99.390	▼ 4.19%	▼ 3.03%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.020	▼ 5.33%	▼ 2.27%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	72.490	▼ 3.94%	▼ 8.25%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	126.140	▼ 2.00%	▲ 0.06%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	71.210	▼ 6.59%	▼ 5.98%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.280	▼ 1.04%	▲ 1.26%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 1.04%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 2.00%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 2.98%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 3.94%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 4.19%

▼ Top Losers

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 6.59%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 6.32%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 5.49%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 5.33%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 4.19%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	34.500	▼ 7.41%	▼ 7.03%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	42.950	▼ 7.24%	▼ 6.83%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	14.530	▼ 9.30%	▼ 9.64%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.160	▼ 4.00%	▼ 2.34%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.470	▼ 3.46%	▼ 5.10%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 3.46%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 4.00%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 7.24%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 7.41%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 9.30%

▼ Top Losers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 9.30%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 7.41%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 7.24%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 4.00%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 3.46%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	17.340	▼ 2.58%	▲ 4.33%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.880	▲ 1.02%	▲ 4.61%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.755	▼ 1.63%	▲ 1.10%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.060	▲ 0.95%	▼ 0.93%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 1.02%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.95%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.63%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 2.58%

▼ Top Losers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 2.58%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.63%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.95%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 1.02%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.54%

Best

Spodumene SC6

-0.24%

Worst

Nickel

-0.70%

Lithium carbonate fell 0.69% while CATL mine cut and Zimbabwe/DRC policy bans tighten future battery metal supply.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

+0.07%

Best

Cerium Oxide

+0.56%

Worst

Dysprosium Ox.

-0.60%

Neodymium oxide flat at 101.01 USD/kg with Chinese export controls still set for November reimplementation.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.33%

Best

Germanium

+1.04%

Worst

Tungsten (APT)

0.00%

Gallium and germanium posted small gains amid no new export controls but Zimbabwe antimony-linked mineral ban adds policy pressure.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.52%

Best

Nat. Gas

+0.64%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.39%

Uranium rose 0.39% to 90 USD/lb with vanadium and tungsten unchanged and no fresh contracting news.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-4.05%

Best

Copper

-4.05%

Worst

Copper

-4.05%

Copper dropped 4.05% to 6.528 USD/lb on stronger USD while Zambian smelter outages remove 2 Mt acid capacity.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.62%

Best

Crude Oil (WTI)

+8.15%

Worst

Silver

-5.64%

Oil and coal price moves absent overnight leaving energy transition narrative driven by copper and lithium supply constraints.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
16:00	GB	GDP m/m	High	0.3%	0.0%
22:30	US	Core CPI m/m	High	0.2%	0.2%
22:30	US	Core CPI y/y	High	2.5%	2.4%
22:30	US	CPI m/m	High	0.1%	0.4%
22:30	US	CPI y/y	High	3.4%	3.4%

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

POLICYChinese rare earth export controls scheduled for potential reimplementation 10 November 2026.

SUPPLYDRC mines may cut output due to sulphuric acid shortages from Zambian outages and Iran conflict.

GEOZimbabwe in-transit lithium shipments now blocked under raw mineral export suspension.

MACRONo China PMI print overnight leaves demand signals for critical minerals dependent on next battery installation data.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.