WYS Critical Minerals · Tue 22 Sep 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · TUESDAY 22 SEPTEMBER 2026 · WYS EDITION 093

Data as of Monday 21 September 2026 close · Generated 22 September 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

Chilean output cuts support copper near five-year high

Major Chilean miners targeting 2026 production 5-7% below guidance amid weather and operational issues. Combined with Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula disruptions removing ~600kt expected supply, LME stocks show tightness with backwardation emerging. Prices held at ~$14,529/t.

POLICY Gallium ▲ Bullish

Chinese export curbs sustain gallium price premium outside China

Three years after 2023 curbs, ex-China gallium prices remain at record levels with China still ~99% of primary supply. Demand rising ~12% annually through 2030 on AI and chips; Western capacity additions limited to ~20t by end-2026 vs 678t gap.

SUPPLY Nickel ● Neutral

Nickel trades flat amid Indonesian quota uncertainty

Shanghai nickel at ~123,920 yuan/t as market remains in surplus. Indonesian 2026 ore quotas set below demand, with potential further tightening; battery demand up 35% YoY but LFP chemistry limits nickel intensity. Analysts see possible 20-30% price recovery by year-end on supply discipline.

DEMAND EV Battery Demand ▼ Bearish

Global NEV sales growth slows to 4% YoY through August

Benchmark data shows global new energy vehicle sales up just 4% Jan-Aug 2026 vs prior year. US sales -21%, China -12%, pressuring short-term demand for lithium, nickel and cobalt despite longer-term storage growth. LFP chemistry further caps nickel/cobalt intensity.

DEMAND Uranium ▲ Bullish

Uranium enters structural deficit on nuclear demand surge

Market already in marginal 2026 deficit, forecast to widen to 18% by 2027 as data centers and new reactors (esp. China +42GWe under construction) drive demand. Supply constrained by Kazakhstan acid/labor issues and Cigar Lake outage; Namibia growth insufficient to close gap.

SUPPLY Graphite ▲ Bullish

Northern Graphite delays Lac des Iles restart on lease and market issues

Q3 restart postponed due to mining lease suspension, financial constraints and slower-than-expected natural graphite demand growth. Company is North America's only flake graphite producer; global deficit still projected by decade-end amid EV anode needs.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight USD Index rose 0.20% to 100.42 while copper climbed 2.53% to 6.7825 USD/lb and cobalt eased 0.85% to 39780 USD/t, reflecting immediate supply-side pressure from multiple mine and smelter constraints rather than broad macro flows. Freeport Indonesia extended the Grasberg Block Cave full production restart to early 2028 after the September 2025 mudflow, holding output at 40-50% of capacity and removing several hundred thousand tonnes of annual copper supply; concurrent DRC chemical shipment cancellations of 3800 tonnes SMBS plus Zambia’s extended Mopani and Chambishi smelter outages tightening 2 million tonnes of sulfuric acid output have compounded the copper-cobalt squeeze. Northern Graphite’s Lac des Îles lease suspension in Quebec delays North America’s sole commercial flake graphite restart beyond the prior Q3 2026 target, exposing battery supply chains already facing Chinese export controls through November 2026.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

COBALTDRC miners curtailed SMBS and sulfuric acid use after 2000-tonne and 1800-tonne shipments were cancelled, placing cobalt output cuts under active review.

GRAPHITENorthern Graphite postponed Lac des Îles restart after Quebec suspended the mining lease over an unpaid site restoration guarantee.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate held at 134400 CNY/t with no overnight spot movement reported amid routine CATL 40% EV battery share data.

NICKELNickel rose 0.92% to 16385 USD/t with no fresh Indonesian plant updates beyond prior water-shortage halts.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINAChina rare earth export control suspensions remain in force through November 2026 with no new policy changes overnight.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide stayed flat at 142 USD/kg reflecting stable magnet feedstock pricing.

EXPORTNo fresh rare earth export declarations or quota adjustments emerged in the last 12-18 hours.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium eased 0.02% to 231.01 USD/kg on cached pricing with no new export control announcements.

GERMANIUMGermanium declined 0.31% to 3527.61 USD/kg amid ongoing background supply factors.

ANTIMONYAntimony held unchanged at 22450 USD/t with no policy or export developments reported.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index advanced 0.20% to 100.42, supporting USD-denominated metal prices.

CHINAChina PMI data remained unreported overnight, leaving demand signals muted.

TRADENo new tariffs or trade measures affecting critical minerals surfaced in the period.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.130	▼ 0.96%	▼ 15.37%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	53.320	▲ 0.93%	▼ 12.99%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.030	▲ 0.98%	▼ 11.97%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	6.830	▼ 0.73%	▼ 13.87%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	13.980	▼ 2.58%	▼ 7.11%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.345	▲ 6.15%	▲ 1.47%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.160	▲ 3.36%	▼ 10.64%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.665	▲ 3.42%	▲ 8.12%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	21.900	▼ 0.36%	▼ 2.54%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.385	▲ 5.48%	▲ 0.00%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	5.990	▼ 1.16%	▼ 8.27%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.033	▲ 3.13%	▲ 0.00%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.045	▲ 2.27%	▼ 4.26%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.390	▲ 4.00%	▲ 1.30%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.200	▼ 0.90%	▼ 12.00%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.041	▲ 0.00%	▼ 4.65%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.290	▼ 14.71%	▼ 20.55%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.440	▲ 14.29%	▲ 23.94%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.665	▲ 0.00%	▲ 6.40%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.455	▲ 0.00%	▲ 3.41%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▲ 14.29%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 6.15%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 5.48%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 4.00%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 3.42%

▼ Top Losers

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 14.71%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 2.58%

ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▼ 1.16%

PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▼ 0.96%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▼ 0.90%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	50.000	▲ 5.80%	▼ 2.57%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	12.300	▲ 5.13%	▼ 9.76%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	93.230	▲ 1.76%	▼ 4.30%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	97.040	▼ 0.34%	▼ 2.36%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	2.960	▲ 3.50%	▼ 1.99%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	69.530	▲ 2.67%	▼ 4.08%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	123.050	▼ 0.29%	▼ 2.45%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	72.160	▲ 0.87%	▲ 1.33%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.150	▼ 0.42%	▼ 7.40%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 5.80%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 5.13%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 3.50%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 2.67%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 1.76%

▼ Top Losers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 0.42%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.34%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 0.29%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 0.87%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 1.76%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	34.640	▲ 3.25%	▲ 0.41%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	45.250	▲ 3.86%	▲ 5.36%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	14.680	▲ 1.31%	▲ 1.03%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.780	▲ 5.35%	▼ 2.68%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.070	▲ 2.26%	▼ 8.95%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 5.35%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 3.86%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 3.25%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 2.26%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.31%

▼ Top Losers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.31%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 2.26%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 3.25%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 3.86%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 5.35%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	15.710	▲ 0.13%	▼ 9.40%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	8.810	▼ 0.28%	▼ 10.83%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.920	▼ 2.46%	▼ 9.54%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.030	▼ 1.44%	▼ 2.83%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 0.13%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.28%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 1.44%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 2.46%

▼ Top Losers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 2.46%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 1.44%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.28%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 0.13%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.37%

Best

Spodumene SC6

+1.05%

Worst

Cobalt

-0.85%

Cobalt supply faces direct pressure from 3800 tonnes cancelled SMBS shipments and doubled acid costs in the DRC.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

+0.26%

Best

Terbium Ox.

+0.26%

Worst

Terbium Ox.

+0.26%

No overnight movement in neodymium oxide or Chinese export policy beyond existing November 2026 suspensions.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.13%

Best

Gallium

-0.02%

Worst

Germanium

-0.31%

Gallium and germanium posted minor declines on cached data with no new export controls reported.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.54%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+1.64%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-2.71%

Uranium rose 1.64% to 89.7 USD/lb with no fresh contracting or production updates.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.72%

Best

Copper

+2.53%

Worst

Aluminium

-0.93%

Copper gained 2.53% on Grasberg delay to 2028 and Zambia smelter outages tightening acid supply.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-3.34%

Best

Iron Ore

+0.15%

Worst

Crude Oil (WTI)

-8.29%

No oil or coal price data provided to assess transition narrative impact.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
01:00	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	Medium	—	—
13:10	AU	RBA Gov Bullock Speaks	High	—	—
21:00	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	Medium	—	—

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYNorthern Graphite Quebec Superior Court ruling on Lac des Îles lease suspension due shortly.

GEOIran conflict shipping reroutes via Tanzania continue to inflate DRC cobalt and copper freight costs.

POLICYChinese rare earth and graphite export suspensions remain active through November 2026.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.