WYS Critical Minerals · Wed 23 Sep 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · WEDNESDAY 23 SEPTEMBER 2026 · WYS EDITION 094

Data as of Tuesday 22 September 2026 close · Generated 23 September 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Copper ▲ Bullish

Copper extends rally on tight Chinese inventories

Copper prices climbed for a sixth straight session toward record highs as Shanghai and London warehouse stocks plunged, with SHFE inventories down 70% since June and cathode stocks at multi-year lows. Seasonal buying ahead of Chinese holidays and direct delivery to fabricators signal physical tightness. Bullish for prices amid ongoing supply constraints.

SUPPLY Nickel ▲ Bullish

Drought disrupts Indonesian nickel smelters

Severe drought in Indonesia forced production cuts at major nickel-processing hubs, compounding earlier quota restrictions and sulphur supply issues. This adds to global supply tightness in a market already seeing policy-driven constraints from the top producer. Supports higher prices.

SUPPLY Lithium ● Neutral

CATL Jianxiawo mine back on care and maintenance

China's largest lithium mine lost its license and returned to care and maintenance, removing significant supply from the market. Spot prices have declined recently amid broader oversupply concerns, but Benchmark flipped its 2027 outlook to deficit. Mixed near-term signals with potential bullish supply impact.

DEMAND Lithium ▲ Bullish

Chinese lithium prices firm on EV restocking

Battery-grade lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices edged higher in China as EV makers restocked for high-nickel cathodes ahead of potential demand recovery. Modest gains reflect synchronized buying across grades amid low inventories. Mildly supportive for prices.

SUPPLY Uranium ▲ Bullish

New uranium discovery at Fox Zone, Canada

Geiger Energy intersected multiple near-surface uranium zones at its Fox discovery in Nunavut, adding to potential non-Chinese supply options. Early-stage results highlight ongoing exploration interest amid energy transition demand. Neutral to mildly bullish for long-term supply diversification.

POLICY Gallium ▲ Bullish

Western gallium supply gap persists amid Chinese curbs

Export controls continue to drive Western gallium prices 5-9x higher than Chinese domestic levels, with ex-China capacity projected at just 20 tons by end-2026 against a ~678 ton gap. New projects in Australia and elsewhere advance slowly. Sustains supply risk premium.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index at 100.54 and CNY/USD at 6.6991 provided modest support for USD-denominated prices, lifting copper 3.19% to 6.8995 USD/lb while cobalt slipped 0.85% to 39780 USD/t amid the DRC supply squeeze. DRC copper-cobalt miners cancelled a 2000 t SMBS order and saw an 1800 t shipment withdrawn, doubling delivered sulfuric acid and SMBS costs via Dar es Salaam and prompting output cuts that directly tighten near-term cobalt availability. Freeport Indonesia’s Grasberg Block Cave now targets full production only in early 2028 after the September 2025 mudflow, holding output at 40-50% of prior levels and exposing ASX-listed copper names such as Sandfire Resources and 29Metals to sustained concentrate tightness.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

COBALTDRC miners cut leaching chemical use after 2000 t SMBS order cancellation and 1800 t shipment withdrawal, raising risk of cobalt output reductions.

GIGAFACTORYCATL started trial cell production on two lines at its 100 GWh Debrecen plant on 22 September 2026 after securing IPPC permit.

GRAPHITENorthern Graphite now sees Q3 2026 restart at Lac des Iles as unlikely due to mining-lease suspension and financial constraints.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate held at 134450 CNY/t with no overnight change while spodumene SC6 eased 0.24% to 2115 USD/t.

NICKELNickel rose 0.92% to 16385 USD/t on LME with no new supply disruptions reported in the last 18 hours.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

EXPORTChina’s April 2025 restrictions on seven rare earths and magnets remain in force with broader measures due 10 November.

SUPPLYNo new force-majeure declarations or mine outages reported for rare earth operations overnight.

MAGNETNeodymium oxide stayed at 142 USD/kg with no price movement despite ongoing export-control discussions.

CHINAHigh-level talks on potential refinements to rare-earth export rules continue ahead of scheduled November measures.

NDFEБExisting controls on NdFeB magnet feedstocks unchanged overnight with no fresh tonnage data released.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GERMANIUMGermanium surged 29.05% to 3560.08 USD/kg on tight supply and policy signals.

GALLIUMGallium eased 0.48% to 230.75 USD/kg with no new export-control announcements.

ANTIMONYAntimony held at 22450 USD/t with no overnight policy or supply updates.

TUNGSTENAPT tungsten remained at 780 USD/mtu with no movement or new Chinese export data.

POLICYNo fresh gallium or germanium export bans reported in the last 12 hours.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.11% to 100.54, supporting USD-priced metals including copper and nickel.

CHINAChina PMI data absent from overnight coverage, leaving domestic demand signals muted.

TRADECNY/USD at 6.6991 showed 0.06% strengthening with limited immediate impact on mineral flows.

ENERGYUranium U3O8 ticked up 0.21% to 89.7 USD/lb with no new contracting news.

RATESS&P 500 flat at 7765.0 provided neutral backdrop for equity-exposed miners.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.130	▲ 0.00%	▼ 8.63%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	54.110	▲ 1.48%	▼ 8.86%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.020	▼ 0.97%	▼ 4.67%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	6.790	▼ 0.59%	▼ 10.42%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	14.510	▲ 3.79%	▲ 0.97%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.370	▲ 7.25%	▲ 2.78%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.290	▲ 1.28%	▲ 0.10%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.725	▲ 3.60%	▲ 18.56%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	22.360	▲ 2.10%	▲ 5.17%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.395	▲ 2.60%	▲ 9.72%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.100	▲ 1.84%	▼ 2.24%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.032	▼ 3.03%	▲ 0.00%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.046	▲ 2.22%	▲ 0.00%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.400	▲ 2.56%	▲ 9.59%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.160	▼ 1.82%	▼ 8.86%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.041	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.310	▲ 6.90%	▼ 11.43%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.425	▼ 3.41%	▲ 23.19%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.995	▲ 49.62%	▲ 63.11%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.460	▲ 1.10%	▲ 9.52%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 49.62%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 7.25%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 6.90%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 3.79%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 3.60%

▼ Top Losers

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 3.41%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 3.03%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▼ 1.82%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 0.97%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▼ 0.59%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	51.040	▲ 2.08%	▲ 1.05%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	12.140	▼ 1.30%	▼ 6.25%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	94.590	▲ 1.46%	▼ 2.16%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	97.490	▲ 0.46%	▼ 2.47%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.000	▲ 1.35%	▲ 3.09%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	70.190	▲ 0.95%	▲ 0.44%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	127.260	▲ 3.42%	▲ 0.35%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	74.350	▲ 3.03%	▲ 4.62%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.190	▲ 0.28%	▼ 6.83%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 3.42%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 3.03%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 2.08%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 1.46%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 1.35%

▼ Top Losers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 1.30%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 0.28%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.46%

SQMSQMLithium▼ 0.95%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 1.35%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	35.810	▲ 3.38%	▲ 7.06%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	46.540	▲ 2.85%	▲ 5.92%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	14.960	▲ 1.91%	▲ 4.11%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.070	▲ 2.10%	▲ 3.23%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.140	▲ 1.72%	▼ 1.19%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 3.38%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 2.85%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 2.10%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.91%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 1.72%

▼ Top Losers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 1.72%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.91%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 2.10%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 2.85%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 3.38%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	15.710	▲ 0.00%	▼ 1.81%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	8.755	▼ 0.62%	▼ 3.47%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.965	▲ 0.57%	▼ 4.55%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.030	▲ 0.00%	▼ 2.83%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 0.57%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 0.00%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.62%

▼ Top Losers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.62%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 0.00%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 0.57%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

-0.06%

Best

Nickel

+0.92%

Worst

Cobalt

-0.85%

Cobalt faces bullish pressure from DRC chemical-supply cuts while CATL Debrecen trial start signals steady gigafactory demand.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

China export controls on seven rare earths and magnets remain unchanged with no new pricing movement overnight.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+6.45%

Best

Germanium

+29.05%

Worst

Indium

-2.77%

Germanium surged 29.05% on tight supply while gallium and antimony posted minor declines with no fresh policy moves.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+5.86%

Best

Nat. Gas

+11.50%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.21%

Uranium edged 0.21% higher to 89.7 USD/lb with vanadium and no new contracting activity reported.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+3.19%

Best

Copper

+3.19%

Worst

Copper

+3.19%

Copper rose 3.19% to 6.8995 USD/lb on Grasberg delay and DRC output concerns while LME inventory data stayed quiet.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.00%

Best

Silver

+2.80%

Worst

Crude Oil (WTI)

-6.26%

Oil and gas prices provided neutral backdrop for energy-transition metals with no overnight shift in the substitution narrative.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
17:15	EU	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	51.5	50.9
17:15	EU	French Flash Services PMI	Medium	48.4	48.3
17:30	EU	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	54.1	54.1
17:30	EU	German Flash Services PMI	Medium	48.5	49.9
18:30	GB	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	51.5	51.5
18:30	GB	Flash Services PMI	Medium	52.8	52.0

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYMonitor DRC cobalt output cuts as chemical costs double and miners consider scaling back production.

POLICYWatch 10 November China rare-earth export measures for any last-minute extensions or tonnage adjustments.

GEOTrack Iran conflict shipping disruptions for further impact on East African chemical deliveries to DRC.

RISKObserve CATL Debrecen trial results for any delays that could affect 2026 European EV cell supply.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.