WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 23 Oct 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 23 OCTOBER 2026 · WYS EDITION 114

Data as of Thursday 22 October 2026 close · Generated 23 October 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-261001_2039 / T-260927_1849

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

Strike notice at Teck Highland Valley mine

SUPPLY

Copper

Teck Resources received strike notice from union at Highland Valley Copper mine, with potential action starting October 24. The mine remains operational but contingency plans are in place amid expired collective agreement. This adds to ongoing supply risks in a tight concentrate market.

▲ Bullish

Japan warns of yttrium shortage from China controls

POLICY

Rare Earths

Japanese government alerts on depleting yttrium stockpiles and seeks US help to ease Chinese export restrictions. Yttrium oxide exports to Japan fell sharply year-over-year per customs data. Signals tightening non-Chinese supply amid ongoing controls.

▲ Bullish

Chinese producers eye Indonesian output cuts

SUPPLY

Nickel

Executives at Chinese nickel firms plan coordinated talks on reducing output at Indonesian battery material plants. Aims to address oversupply pressures in Class II nickel segment. Potential tightening could support prices amid weak battery demand.

▲ Bullish

BNEF flags major copper deficit from 2028

DEMAND

Copper

BloombergNEF Transition Metals Outlook projects copper supply deficit starting 2028, widening significantly by 2050 requiring $332B in new mine investment. Most other transition metals seen as adequately supplied long-term. Highlights copper as key outlier amid AI and electrification demand.

▲ Bullish

BNEF sees lithium market moving to surplus

SUPPLY

Lithium

China expected to become world's leading lithium producer, plugging gaps and shifting market toward oversupply per BNEF. Stationary storage demand growth slowing sharply to ~5% annually after rapid prior expansion. Near-term deficit possible but longer-term surplus pressures prices.

▼ Bearish

Mount Ridley achieves 95% gallium recovery in tests

SUPPLY

Gallium

Australian firm reports 95% gallium recovery alongside high aluminium and iron yields from bauxite using Selectro process in third-party tests. Technology targets low-temperature recovery from industrial feedstocks. Potential new non-Chinese supply pathway under development.

● Neutral

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index slipped 0.08% to 101.65 and the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, yet critical minerals prices moved on supply signals rather than macro, with copper down 2.22% to 6.3975 USD/lb and lithium carbonate off 3.26% to 99350 CNY/t. Nickel held flat at 15830 USD/t despite the coordinated cuts, while indium dropped 6.41% to 621.5 USD/kg on thin spot liquidity. Chinese copper smelters Tongling Nonferrous and Daye Nonferrous have started curtailing output with up to 30% of Tongling primary capacity affected, while Tsingshan, GEM, Lygend and Huayou advance plans for ~30% reductions at Indonesian HPAL nickel facilities; these moves directly tighten refined availability in the world's largest smelting hub and lift the floor under treatment charges and nickel prices. Equities most exposed include Teck Resources on the Highland Valley strike notice that threatens 55kt copper and 1.5-1.8kt molybdenum 2026 guidance, plus ASX-listed nickel developers tied to Tsingshan's Indonesian output and copper names facing Onsan smelter adjustments at LS MnM's 680ktpa facility.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 3.26% to 99350 CNY/t while spodumene SC6 dropped 1.33% to 1485 USD/t on weak spot demand.

NICKELTsingshan, GEM, Lygend and Huayou met to finalise ~30% cuts at Indonesian HPAL plants after nickel prices fell 20% from May highs.

EVGlobal EV battery installations reached 844.2 GWh Jan-Aug (+19.7% YoY) with CATL holding 39.4% share.

GIGAFACTORYCATL Q3 net profit rose 14.5% YoY to CN¥21.25 bn on revenue of CN¥165.2 bn (+58.6%), below analyst forecasts.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINANo fresh policy shifts emerged overnight on China's rare-earth export suspension review scheduled for November 10.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide eased 0.63% to 100.17 USD/kg with no new magnet demand data released.

EXPORTChinese rare-earth export pause timelines remain unchanged with review set for November 10, 2026.

SUPPLYNo new force majeure or mine outages reported for rare-earth operations in the overnight window.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium rose 0.08% to 229.43 USD/kg on thin trading volumes.

GERMANIUMGermanium gained 1.24% to 3768.7 USD/kg with no export control updates.

ANTIMONYAntimony held steady at 21250 USD/t with no new Chinese policy announcements.

TUNGSTENTungsten APT remained at 1775 USD/mtu with no supply disruptions noted.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index fell 0.08% to 101.65, providing mild support for USD-denominated mineral prices.

CHINAChina PMI data release was absent overnight, leaving smelter cut announcements as the dominant signal.

RATESS&P 500 decline of 0.64% reflected broader risk-off sentiment without direct rate impact on minerals.

TRADEAUD/USD slipped 0.09% to 0.7023, pressuring Australian export margins for nickel and copper.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

Medium Impact

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Horizon: 2–4 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Low Impact

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

Horizon: 3–5 years

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

High Impact

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic · rare earth · battery

Horizon: Active

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Low Impact

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery · rare earth

Horizon: Ongoing

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	2.850	▲ 0.00%	▼ 10.09%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	44.250	▲ 0.00%	▼ 5.12%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	0.690	▲ 0.00%	▼ 4.17%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	5.150	▲ 0.00%	▼ 9.65%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	11.380	▲ 0.00%	▼ 1.64%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.360	▲ 0.00%	▲ 9.09%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	7.260	▲ 0.00%	▼ 0.27%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.285	▲ 0.00%	▲ 3.21%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	19.820	▲ 0.00%	▼ 6.02%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.280	▲ 0.00%	▼ 13.85%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	5.190	▲ 0.00%	▼ 3.35%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.026	▲ 0.00%	▲ 13.04%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.036	▲ 0.00%	▼ 7.69%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.215	▲ 0.00%	▼ 8.51%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	1.095	▲ 0.00%	▼ 8.75%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.030	▲ 0.00%	▼ 6.25%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.215	▲ 0.00%	▼ 6.52%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.370	▲ 0.00%	▼ 1.33%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.940	▲ 0.00%	▼ 4.08%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.320	▲ 0.00%	▼ 9.86%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

PLS.AX

Pilbara Minerals

battery

● 0.00%

MIN.AX

Mineral Resources

battery

● 0.00%

LTR.AX

Liontown Resources

battery

● 0.00%

IGO.AX

IGO Ltd

battery

● 0.00%

LYC.AX

Lynas Rare Earths

rare_earth

● 0.00%

▼ Top Losers

PMT.AX

PMET Resources

battery

● 0.00%

GL1.AX

Global Lithium Resources

battery

● 0.00%

EUR.AX

European Lithium

battery

● 0.00%

WC8.AX

Wildcat Resources

battery

● 0.00%

LKE.AX

Lake Resources

battery

● 0.00%

20/21 stocks fetched

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	38.560	▼ 1.25%	▼ 11.07%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	7.690	▼ 6.22%	▼ 17.04%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	78.930	▼ 1.96%	▼ 8.35%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	84.140	▼ 4.56%	▼ 10.77%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	2.100	▼ 1.87%	▼ 4.55%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	56.370	▼ 6.13%	▼ 9.76%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	114.110	▼ 2.31%	▼ 2.59%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	64.590	▼ 6.21%	▼ 11.87%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	12.200	▼ 6.30%	▼ 9.76%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

MP Materials

rare_earth

▼ 1.25%

LAC

Lithium Americas

battery

▼ 1.87%

CCJ

Cameco

energy

▼ 1.96%

NEM

Newmont

base

▼ 2.31%

RIO

Rio Tinto

battery

▼ 4.56%

▼ Top Losers

VALE

Vale

battery

▼ 6.30%

UUUU

Energy Fuels

energy

▼ 6.22%

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan

base

▼ 6.21%

SQM

battery

▼ 6.13%

RIO

Rio Tinto

battery

▼ 4.56%

9/9 stocks fetched

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	29.510	▼ 10.41%	▼ 16.09%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	34.090	▼ 5.75%	▼ 12.79%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	11.170	▼ 8.67%	▼ 18.23%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	11.370	▼ 4.45%	▼ 9.11%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	3.050	▼ 4.39%	▼ 11.85%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

DML.TO

Denison Mines

energy

▼ 4.39%

NXE.TO

NexGen Energy

energy

▼ 4.45%

FM.TO

First Quantum

base

▼ 5.75%

CS.TO

Capstone Copper

base

▼ 8.67%

LUN.TO

Lundin Mining

base

▼ 10.41%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TO

Lundin Mining

base

▼ 10.41%

CS.TO

Capstone Copper

base

▼ 8.67%

FM.TO

First Quantum

base

▼ 5.75%

NXE.TO

NexGen Energy

energy

▼ 4.45%

DML.TO

Denison Mines

energy

▼ 4.39%

5/5 stocks fetched

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	12.730	▼ 6.74%	▼ 16.63%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.015	▼ 6.09%	▼ 17.62%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	6.675	▼ 4.98%	▼ 13.59%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	0.990	▼ 1.00%	▼ 4.81%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1899.HK

Zhaojin Mining

base

▼ 1.00%

2600.HK

Aluminum Corp China

base

▼ 4.98%

1208.HK

MMG Ltd

base

▼ 6.09%

3993.HK

CMOC Group

battery

▼ 6.74%

▼ Top Losers

3993.HK

CMOC Group

battery

▼ 6.74%

1208.HK

MMG Ltd

base

▼ 6.09%

2600.HK

Aluminum Corp China

base

▼ 4.98%

1899.HK

Zhaojin Mining

base

▼ 1.00%

4/4 stocks fetched

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.15%

Best

Cobalt

0.00%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-3.26%

Nickel and lithium prices reflect coordinated Indonesian HPAL cuts and weak spot demand with lithium carbonate down 3.26%.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.19%

Best

Praseodymium Ox.

+0.03%

Worst

Neodymium Oxide

-0.63%

No overnight movement in Chinese rare-earth export policy or NdFeB magnet pricing ahead of the November 10 review.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.27%

Best

Germanium

+1.24%

Worst

Indium

-6.41%

Gallium and germanium posted minor gains of 0.08% and 1.24% respectively with no new export controls announced.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.47%

Best

Nat. Gas

-0.47%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-0.47%

Uranium held at 90.15 USD/lb and vanadium at 11.82 USD/kg with no fresh contracting or supply signals.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

+0.26%

Best

Lead

+1.57%

Worst

Copper

-2.22%

Copper fell 2.22% to 6.3975 USD/lb on smelter cuts at Tongling and Daye plus Highland Valley strike risk.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.35%

Best

Brent Crude

+3.82%

Worst

Silver

-4.91%

S&P 500 decline of 0.64% signals risk-off sentiment without altering the energy transition demand narrative for copper and nickel.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
16:00	GB	Retail Sales m/m	Medium	0.5%	-0.1%
17:15	EU	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	50.3	50.5
17:15	EU	French Flash Services PMI	Medium	51.4	50.7
17:30	EU	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	53.8	53.5
17:30	EU	German Flash Services PMI	Medium	52.9	52.5
18:30	GB	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	52.0	51.8
18:30	GB	Flash Services PMI	Medium	51.7	51.8
23:45	US	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	57.0	55.4
23:45	US	Flash Services PMI	Medium	58.7	57.9

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYHighland Valley collective agreement expired September 30; union action possible from October 24 with no output loss confirmed yet.

SUPPLYNo formal agreement or force majeure declared on the proposed 30% nickel cuts at Indonesian HPAL facilities.

POLICYChinese rare-earth export suspension review remains scheduled for November 10 with no overnight policy shifts.

MACROChina PMI data absent overnight; next battery installation figures due in coming days.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.