WYS Critical Minerals · Mon 26 Oct 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · MONDAY 26 OCTOBER 2026 · WYS EDITION 115

Data as of Friday 23 October 2026 close · Generated 26 October 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-261001_2039 / T-260927_1849

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        Monday morning — all prices reflect Friday 23 October 2026 close
      

        AU market holidays accounted for. Live data resumes next trading session.
      

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

Chile to tender five new lithium projects

POLICY

Lithium

Mining Minister Daniel Mas announced plans to issue tenders for five additional lithium projects in 2027, aiming to more than double Chile's output from ~300kt to 700kt LCE within 5-10 years via fully private operations. This follows five projects already in approval and signals accelerated private-sector development to boost supply.

▼ Bearish

Benchmark: 134 new mines needed by 2050

SUPPLY

Lithium

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts global lithium demand tripling to ~7Mt LCE by 2050 (76% EV-driven), requiring equivalent of 134 new mines and >$100B investment. Australia’s share of mined supply expected to fall from 29% to 20% as other regions expand.

▲ Bullish

Teck Highland Valley strike notice issued

SUPPLY

Copper

United Steelworkers Local 7619 issued strike notice at Teck’s Highland Valley Copper mine, effective as early as Oct 24, 2026, after contract expiry. Ongoing global mine disruptions and low treatment charges already pressuring supply amid electrification demand.

▲ Bullish

G7 sets rare earth dependency targets

POLICY

Rare Earths

G7 leaders agreed to diversify rare earth imports so no country exceeds 60% reliance on any single supplier by 2030 (targeting 50%). US FORGE coalition released guiding principles for secure supply chains; S&P Global released draft reports on neodymium/praseodymium pricing.

▲ Bullish

US releases gallium/germanium supply analyses

POLICY

Gallium

USTR Jamieson Greer highlighted new S&P Global draft market reports on gallium and germanium supply chains as key input for trade talks on price floors and diversification. Greenland deal grants US veto power over exploration to counter China influence.

▲ Bullish

The Metals Co seeks deep-sea mining permit

SUPPLY

Nickel

The Metals Co became first to apply for US international seabed mining permit under streamlined NOAA process for Clarion-Clipperton Zone nodules containing nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese. Aims for permit by year-end to accelerate commercial production.

▼ Bearish

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index rose 0.20% to 101.81 while S&P 500 fell 0.52%, lifting copper 1.78% to 6.476 USD/lb and indium 3.32% to 624.83 USD/kg as traders priced in tighter physical availability from ongoing supply issues. Teck’s Highland Valley Copper strike by USW Local 7619 since October 24 has cut output at a site guiding 1,500–1,800 tonnes molybdenum for 2026, while Zijin’s Bisha mine faces a potential four-week processing halt after producing 23,000 t copper and 83,000 t zinc in 2025; Chinese nickel producers are advancing plans to halve MHP and cut NPI 20% at IMIP. Teck Resources faces the largest direct exposure through lost molybdenum and copper tonnes at Highland Valley, Nickel Industries is most leveraged to coordinated IMIP reductions, and LS MnM’s Onsan 680 ktpa refinery review adds downside risk to treatment-charge dependent output.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

NICKELChinese producers advance coordinated cuts at IMIP including potential halving of MHP output and 20% NPI reductions.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 2.37% to 97,000 CNY/t while lithium hydroxide held at 99,200 CNY/t with no fresh supply news.

EVCATL posted Q3 net profit of 21.2 billion yuan up 14.5% YoY, slowest growth in nearly two years, as China September EV battery installations reached 86.8 GWh.

NICKELNickel Industries confirmed coordinated output cuts across Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park operations.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

EXPORTChina’s one-year suspension of expanded October 2025 rare earth export controls expires November 10 with no extension published.

CHINASeparate controls on seven medium and heavy rare earths remain in force while a new MOFCOM draft proposes export bans on 40 key technologies.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide declined 0.63% to 100.17 USD/kg amid ongoing Chinese policy uncertainty.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium rose 0.01% to 229.43 USD/kg with no new export control announcements overnight.

GERMANIUMGermanium edged up 0.11% to 3,768.81 USD/kg as Chinese domestic pricing data remained absent.

ANTIMONYAntimony held at 21,250 USD/t with no fresh policy moves reported.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index climbed 0.20% to 101.81 pressuring non-USD denominated critical mineral prices.

CHINAChina PMI data release was not identified in overnight sources.

TRADENew MOFCOM draft October 18 proposes export bans or approvals on 40 key technologies including AI and solar.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

Medium Impact

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Horizon: 2–4 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Low Impact

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

Horizon: 3–5 years

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

High Impact

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic · rare earth · battery

Horizon: Active

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Low Impact

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery · rare earth

Horizon: Ongoing

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	2.620	▲ 0.00%	▼ 11.78%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	42.360	▲ 0.00%	▼ 4.55%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	0.640	▲ 0.00%	▼ 5.88%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	4.770	▲ 0.00%	▼ 11.50%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	10.710	▲ 0.00%	▼ 0.93%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.360	▲ 0.00%	▲ 2.86%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	6.880	▲ 0.00%	▼ 0.43%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.205	▲ 0.00%	▼ 2.82%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.450	▲ 0.00%	▼ 7.70%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.270	▲ 0.00%	▼ 11.48%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	4.960	▲ 0.00%	▼ 1.98%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.023	▲ 0.00%	▲ 4.55%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.035	▲ 0.00%	▼ 2.78%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.200	▲ 0.00%	▼ 9.09%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	1.035	▲ 0.00%	▼ 9.61%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.029	▲ 0.00%	▼ 3.33%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.215	▲ 0.00%	▼ 6.52%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.355	▲ 0.00%	▲ 4.41%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.910	▲ 0.00%	▼ 5.70%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.300	▲ 0.00%	▼ 9.09%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

PLS.AX

Pilbara Minerals

battery

● 0.00%

MIN.AX

Mineral Resources

battery

● 0.00%

LTR.AX

Liontown Resources

battery

● 0.00%

IGO.AX

IGO Ltd

battery

● 0.00%

LYC.AX

Lynas Rare Earths

rare_earth

● 0.00%

▼ Top Losers

PMT.AX

PMET Resources

battery

● 0.00%

GL1.AX

Global Lithium Resources

battery

● 0.00%

EUR.AX

European Lithium

battery

● 0.00%

WC8.AX

Wildcat Resources

battery

● 0.00%

LKE.AX

Lake Resources

battery

● 0.00%

20/21 stocks fetched

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	38.300	▼ 0.67%	▼ 4.13%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	7.520	▼ 2.21%	▼ 9.83%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	78.600	▼ 0.42%	▼ 3.52%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	83.420	▼ 0.86%	▼ 8.58%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	2.070	▼ 1.43%	▲ 0.00%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	57.140	▲ 1.37%	▼ 7.30%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	108.870	▼ 4.59%	▼ 2.41%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	65.180	▲ 0.91%	▼ 6.38%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	12.400	▲ 1.64%	▼ 6.13%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

VALE

Vale

battery

▲ 1.64%

SQM

battery

▲ 1.37%

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan

base

▲ 0.91%

CCJ

Cameco

energy

▼ 0.42%

MP Materials

rare_earth

▼ 0.67%

▼ Top Losers

NEM

Newmont

base

▼ 4.59%

UUUU

Energy Fuels

energy

▼ 2.21%

LAC

Lithium Americas

battery

▼ 1.43%

RIO

Rio Tinto

battery

▼ 0.86%

MP Materials

rare_earth

▼ 0.67%

9/9 stocks fetched

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	29.500	▼ 0.03%	▼ 9.84%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	33.440	▼ 1.91%	▼ 10.35%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	11.190	▲ 0.18%	▼ 11.12%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	11.400	▲ 0.26%	▼ 0.70%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	3.040	▼ 0.33%	▼ 1.30%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

NXE.TO

NexGen Energy

energy

▲ 0.26%

CS.TO

Capstone Copper

base

▲ 0.18%

LUN.TO

Lundin Mining

base

▼ 0.03%

DML.TO

Denison Mines

energy

▼ 0.33%

FM.TO

First Quantum

base

▼ 1.91%

▼ Top Losers

FM.TO

First Quantum

base

▼ 1.91%

DML.TO

Denison Mines

energy

▼ 0.33%

LUN.TO

Lundin Mining

base

▼ 0.03%

CS.TO

Capstone Copper

base

▲ 0.18%

NXE.TO

NexGen Energy

energy

▲ 0.26%

5/5 stocks fetched

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	13.010	▲ 2.20%	▼ 16.50%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.050	▲ 0.50%	▼ 18.69%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.140	▲ 6.97%	▼ 8.11%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	0.980	▼ 1.01%	▼ 2.97%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HK

Aluminum Corp China

base

▲ 6.97%

3993.HK

CMOC Group

battery

▲ 2.20%

1208.HK

MMG Ltd

base

▲ 0.50%

1899.HK

Zhaojin Mining

base

▼ 1.01%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HK

Zhaojin Mining

base

▼ 1.01%

1208.HK

MMG Ltd

base

▲ 0.50%

3993.HK

CMOC Group

battery

▲ 2.20%

2600.HK

Aluminum Corp China

base

▲ 6.97%

4/4 stocks fetched

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.59%

Best

Spodumene SC6

0.00%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-2.37%

Nickel supply cuts at IMIP and flat lithium hydroxide pricing dominate battery metals overnight.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.19%

Best

Praseodymium Ox.

+0.03%

Worst

Neodymium Oxide

-0.63%

China rare earth export suspension expiry on November 10 keeps policy risk elevated for NdFeB supply.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.86%

Best

Indium

+3.32%

Worst

Antimony

0.00%

Gallium and germanium prices stable with no new Chinese export controls reported overnight.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-5.58%

Best

Nat. Gas

-5.58%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-5.58%

Teck Highland Valley strike directly threatens 1,500–1,800 tonnes 2026 molybdenum guidance.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.78%

Best

Copper

+1.78%

Worst

Copper

+1.78%

Copper rose 1.78% to 6.476 USD/lb on Teck and Zijin supply disruptions.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.77%

Best

Crude Oil (WTI)

+3.82%

Worst

Silver

-1.92%

No oil or coal price moves reported that alter energy transition narrative.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
16:00	GB	Retail Sales m/m	Medium	0.5%	-0.1%
17:15	EU	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	50.3	50.5
17:15	EU	French Flash Services PMI	Medium	51.4	50.7
17:30	EU	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	53.8	53.5
17:30	EU	German Flash Services PMI	Medium	52.9	52.5
18:30	GB	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	52.0	51.8
18:30	GB	Flash Services PMI	Medium	51.7	51.8
23:45	US	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	57.0	55.4
23:45	US	Flash Services PMI	Medium	58.7	57.9

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYChina rare earth export control suspension expires November 10 with no extension published.

POLICYNew MOFCOM draft proposes export bans or approvals on 40 key technologies including AI and solar.

SUPPLYLS MnM copper output review at Onsan refinery ongoing amid concentrate procurement challenges.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.