The dominant macro driver heading into Wednesday is the Iran-Israel ceasefire and its partial relief on energy markets: Brent crude settled at $91.45/bbl on Tuesday, down nearly 3% on the day and roughly 34% below the 7 April peak of $138/bbl, as the halt in direct Iranian-Israeli hostilities lifted some geopolitical risk premium. The Strait of Hormuz, however, remains effectively closed under a dual US-Iran blockade, capping any sustained energy price relief, while OPEC+ simultaneously approved a 188,000 bpd quota increase for July. The sharp VIX decline — down 12% to 18.92 — reflects the ceasefire optimism, but the broader inflation shock remains intact: US April CPI printed at 3.8% y/y and May CPI is due today, with consensus pointing to a further acceleration. The ECB meeting Day 1 in Frankfurt and the near-certain 25bp hike tomorrow to 2.25% are the dominant European catalysts for the session. European energy and industrial sectors face a dual squeeze: energy input costs remain structurally elevated versus pre-conflict levels despite Tuesday's pullback, while the German 10-year yield surging 8.6bp to 3.00% tightens financial conditions across rate-sensitive sectors including construction — the worst-performing European sector at -1.28% — and real estate. The EUR/USD edging up 0.04% to 1.1528 reflects the hawkish ECB pricing rather than any broad dollar weakness given the near-flat DXY at 100.05, while EUR/GBP firming to 0.8645 suggests relative ECB hawkishness versus the Bank of England. Cross-asset pressure is most concentrated in European technology — the EXSE sector fell 0.58% and Nokia collapsed 7.13% — and industrials, where Schneider Electric lost 2.61% and the EXV8 industrials basket dropped 1.32%.