MACRO|GEOUS-Iran conflict escalated with renewed US airstrikes and Iranian military responses, driving Brent crude to $95.63/bbl (+1.04%) and WTI to $91.01/bbl (+0.88%). Fed speakers, including Michael Barr, highlighted inflation risks stemming from the energy price surge, reinforcing market pricing of approximately 67% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike at the mid-September FOMC meeting.
FED|MACROADP private payrolls data for August came in softer than expected, adding nuance to the Fed's near-term policy calculus. Despite the miss, US 2-year Treasury yields rose 5bp to 4.39% and 10-year yields climbed 4bp to 4.79%, with intraday prints near 4.818% — the highest since late 2023 — as energy-driven inflation expectations outweighed the softer jobs reading.
EARNINGS|TECHDell Technologies surged approximately 15.8% after raising its annual sales and profit forecasts, citing strong demand for AI infrastructure. The move lifted broader semiconductor and AI-adjacent names: Nvidia added 3.2%, Micron rose 2.4%, and Qualcomm gained 2.0%, helping Wall Street snap a three-day losing streak with the S&P 500 closing up 0.46% at 7,666.60, the Dow up 0.56% at 53,061.95, and the Nasdaq up 0.45% at 26,217.83.
MACRO|EARNINGSBrown-Forman reported Q1 results that beat expectations, providing a bright spot in consumer staples. The Russell 2000 outperformed large-cap benchmarks, rising 1.13% to 2,953.17, suggesting some rotation into domestically oriented small-caps even as global macro headwinds persisted.
ENERGYNatural gas futures rose 1.79% to $2.96/MMBtu in the US, while oil's advance was broad-based across the complex. ARA coal prices gained 1.23% to $135.45/t. The commodity bid reflects both the direct geopolitical risk premium on Middle East supply routes and broader energy market tightness heading into Q4.