The dominant macro driver overnight was Fed Governor Christopher Waller's dovish-leaning signal that the Fed could hold rates steady if incoming inflation data confirms easing, cutting the implied probability of a September hike to roughly 50% from 63%. US 10-year Treasury yields eased to 4.756%, German 10-year Bunds dropped 7.6 basis points to 2.97%, and the VIX fell 5.79% to 14.32 — a collective signal that near-term rate-tightening fear is receding, though Friday's nonfarm payrolls print (consensus: +55,000 versus a prior -23,000) will be critical in confirming or reversing that read. Brent crude remains elevated at $95.52/bbl amid active US-Iran military clashes, though Trump comments suggesting limited duration contained further upside; gold surged 2.87% to $4,491.70/oz, platinum +3.90% and palladium +5.89%, reflecting a broad haven and industrial-metals bid.
For European investors, the relief in US yields transmitted directly into a DAX gain of 0.63% and FTSE 100 +0.70%, though the picture was far from uniform — European Industrials shed 1.60%, Oil & Gas dropped 0.96%, and Personal & Household Goods fell 1.19%, while Banks led with +0.47% as higher-rate expectations continue to support net interest margins at names like ING (INGA.AS +2.44%) and Santander (SAN.MC +1.49%). EUR/USD slipped 0.09% to 1.1585 and GBP/USD fell 0.23% to 1.3484 as the DXY eased 0.56% to 99.0, reflecting residual dollar softness on the Waller comments rather than European currency strength; the EUR/GBP rise of 0.19% to 0.8592 points to relative sterling weakness ahead of BoE Governor Bailey's speech this morning. Cross-asset pressure is concentrated in European autos — Volkswagen -3.76% and Stellantis -2.79% — where energy cost exposure, supply-chain sensitivity, and geopolitical trade risks converge, while the 48% single-day spike in German Power prices to €111.85/MWh adds an acute cost-of-production dimension for energy-intensive European industrials and chemicals.