WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 12 Jun 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 12 JUNE 2026 · WYS EDITION 012

Data as of Thursday 11 June 2026 close · Generated 12 June 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260603_1310 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Germanium ▲ Bullish

Germanium surges 9.6% to $22,750/t

Germanium prices jumped sharply on June 10 amid ongoing Chinese export controls and tight supply. The move follows broader rare earth and strategic mineral restrictions, amplifying concerns over semiconductor and defense supply chains.

SUPPLY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC export clampdown sustains cobalt tightness

DRC quota system and export restrictions continue to constrain cobalt shipments to China, supporting prices near $56,290/t. Market deficits expected through 2026-2027 as material flow remains disrupted.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

China smelters cut 2026 output >10%

Chinese primary copper smelters agreed to reduce utilization by over 10% in 2026 to address negative TC/RCs and concentrate market fundamentals. Combined with global mine disruptions, this tightens refined supply outlook.

SUPPLY Nickel ▼ Bearish

Ambatovy resumes nickel-cobalt output

Madagascar's Ambatovy project has begun gradual restart of nickel and cobalt production following February cyclone damage. The move adds modest near-term supply relief to the nickel market.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

China export controls reshape global chains

Ongoing Chinese rare earth export restrictions, including on key elements like yttrium, continue to drive extreme price spikes and force Western supply chain diversification. New analysis highlights impacts on defense and magnet industries.

DEMAND Graphite ▲ Bullish

UNCTAD flags 130%+ graphite demand growth

June 2026 UNCTAD report projects graphite demand rising over 130% by 2040, with supply highly concentrated in China (78% of natural graphite). Highlights strategic trade policy responses to surging EV and energy storage needs.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight USD Index decline of 0.26% to 99.69 alongside AUD/USD rise of 0.86% to 0.7054 supported modest copper price strength at 6.389 USD/lb (+2.24%), while lithium carbonate, cobalt, nickel and spodumene SC6 closed flat, indicating limited macro transmission into battery and base metals pricing. No Tier 1 mine outages, export bans or demand shocks emerged in the past 12-18 hours, leaving Chinese domestic benchmarks and LME inventories unchanged. Energy Fuels confirmed it remains on track for 1.5–2.5 million pounds U₃O₈ full-year 2026 guidance with 1.6 million pounds expected from White Mesa Mill by 30 June, while Grounded Lithium reported May oil output of 114 bpd and ongoing Kindersley PFS review; these updates leave UUUU and GRD/GRDAF as the primary equity exposures to today’s quiet session.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate held at 24501.15 USD/t with zero overnight movement and no CATL or BYD inventory data released.

EVNo new gigafactory offtake announcements surfaced from Panasonic, LG or Samsung SDI in the last 18 hours.

NICKELNickel closed unchanged at 17720.0 USD/t reflecting absence of Indonesian supply or stainless demand signals.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINANo fresh Chinese rare earth export policy adjustments reported overnight beyond previously suspended measures through late 2026.

SUPPLYNdFeB magnet feedstock pricing remained static with no new domestic SMM or Antaike moves noted.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium traded flat at 277.15 USD/kg with no new export control announcements from China.

ANTIMONYAntimony held at 19562.0 USD/t absent any policy or smelter updates from major producers.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDWeaker USD Index at 99.69 provided mild support to dollar-denominated copper while leaving other critical minerals prices unmoved.

CHINAChina PMI data remained unreleased overnight, producing no immediate read-through to domestic metal demand.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.940	▲ 3.13%	▼ 11.87%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	65.190	▲ 1.57%	▼ 12.30%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.985	▲ 4.20%	▼ 20.60%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	8.530	▲ 1.07%	▼ 14.96%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	0.535	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.890	▲ 0.12%	▼ 9.53%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.345	▼ 1.43%	▼ 11.54%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.370	▼ 0.11%	▼ 17.08%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.115	▼ 3.46%	▼ 14.23%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.350	▲ 0.27%	▼ 5.99%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.245	▲ 4.26%	▼ 9.26%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.080	▼ 0.84%	▼ 10.72%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.055	▲ 1.85%	▼ 22.54%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.052	▲ 10.64%	▼ 3.70%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.380	▲ 2.70%	▼ 25.49%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	3.240	▲ 2.86%	▼ 21.55%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.056	▲ 0.00%	▼ 22.22%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.470	▲ 1.08%	▼ 16.81%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.395	▲ 0.00%	▼ 16.84%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.490	▲ 2.08%	▼ 5.77%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.575	▲ 2.68%	▼ 21.77%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 10.64%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 4.26%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▲ 4.20%

PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▲ 3.13%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▲ 2.86%

▼ Top Losers

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▼ 3.46%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 1.43%

ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▼ 0.84%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▼ 0.11%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 0.00%

21/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	57.180	▲ 6.98%	▼ 20.85%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	15.080	▲ 10.15%	▼ 22.82%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	98.970	▲ 4.15%	▼ 17.87%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	103.640	▲ 4.62%	▼ 7.19%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	4.410	▲ 6.27%	▼ 23.30%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	80.440	▲ 8.35%	▼ 0.49%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	97.590	▲ 5.20%	▼ 10.88%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	66.340	▲ 6.86%	▼ 7.50%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.360	▲ 2.88%	▼ 8.68%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 10.15%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 8.35%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 6.98%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 6.86%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 6.27%

▼ Top Losers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 2.88%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 4.15%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 4.62%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 5.20%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 6.27%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	36.870	▲ 2.99%	▼ 16.39%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	42.220	▲ 6.29%	▼ 8.48%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	13.740	▲ 8.10%	▼ 13.86%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.610	▲ 5.34%	▼ 20.78%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.200	▲ 6.60%	▼ 16.83%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 8.10%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 6.60%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 6.29%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 5.34%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 2.99%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 2.99%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 5.34%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 6.29%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 6.60%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 8.10%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	16.760	▲ 3.01%	▼ 14.10%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	8.370	▲ 3.21%	▼ 13.62%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	9.850	▲ 1.13%	▼ 12.29%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.170	▲ 1.74%	▼ 2.50%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 3.21%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 3.01%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 1.74%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.13%

▼ Top Losers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.13%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 1.74%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 3.01%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 3.21%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Battery metals complex stayed flat with lithium carbonate, nickel and cobalt showing zero price movement and no gigafactory or EV sales data.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-13.10%

Best

Praseodymium Ox.

-13.10%

Worst

Praseodymium Ox.

-13.10%

Rare earths exhibited no Chinese pricing shifts or new export policy developments overnight.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Gallium, germanium and antimony prices remained unchanged with no fresh export controls or defence supply chain updates.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.79%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

-0.29%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-3.30%

Uranium supply signal from Energy Fuels confirmed steady White Mesa Mill output trajectory toward 2026 guidance.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

+0.04%

Best

Copper

+2.24%

Worst

Aluminium

-1.09%

Copper posted the sole overnight gain of 2.24% driven by USD weakness while LME inventories and China demand data stayed quiet.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.16%

Best

Silver

+4.24%

Worst

Brent Crude

-4.36%

Oil-linked macro moves had negligible transmission into critical minerals pricing given the absence of energy transition policy shifts.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

MACROPending China PMI release could alter domestic demand signals for copper and battery metals in the next session.

POLICYU.S. DOE critical minerals processing funding initiatives remain active but produced no new overnight project announcements.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.