WYS Critical Minerals · Wed 24 Jun 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · WEDNESDAY 24 JUNE 2026 · WYS EDITION 028

Data as of Tuesday 23 June 2026 close · Generated 24 June 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Lithium ▲ Bullish

Lithium carbonate price rises 0.96% to 158,500 CNY/T

Spot price ticked higher on June 23 amid ongoing supply concentration concerns. Monthly trend remains down 13.5% but year-over-year surge exceeds 164%.

POLICY Lithium ▲ Bullish

Zimbabwe bans raw lithium exports to boost local processing

Policy aims to capture more value domestically and attract refining investment. Move tightens immediate raw material availability for global battery makers.

SUPPLY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC cobalt export curbs continue to constrain feedstock

Ongoing restrictions from the top producer (74% share) are tightening hydroxide supply for refiners. Inventories stable but market remains vulnerable to further policy shifts.

SUPPLY Nickel ▲ Bullish

Nornickel issues June 2026 metals market review

World's top palladium and major nickel producer updates on supply dynamics. Indonesian quota tightening and sulphur constraints cited as price supports.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

Section 232 tariff updates and mine disruptions pressure copper

US tariff modifications effective June 2026 plus Grasberg delays and sulphuric acid shortages add to structural deficit forecasts. Prices supported near-term.

POLICY Rare earths ● Neutral

Shin-Etsu to build rare earth smelter in Japan

New facility reduces reliance on Chinese processing (69% global share). Part of broader allied diversification push including stockpiling and recycling.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight USD Index rose 0.36% to 101.38 while S&P 500 fell 1.44% and copper dropped 3.60% to 6.1275 USD/lb, pressuring broader critical minerals pricing amid risk-off flows and stronger dollar. China’s immediate export controls on dual-use items to MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, effective June 22 2026, introduce targeted supply-chain friction for US rare earth developers without altering current physical flows. MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and any ASX-listed rare earth names with US offtake exposure face the sharpest headline risk as Beijing retaliates against Pentagon listings, though domestic Chinese prices for neodymium oxide remain unquoted and no immediate production impact is recorded.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate held at 158500 CNY/t with zero move on flat overnight trading.

EVNo new EV sales releases or gigafactory announcements emerged from CATL or BYD in the window.

NICKELNickel closed unchanged at 17230 USD/t with no LME inventory or Indonesian supply update.

COBALTCobalt remained at 56290 USD/t absent any DRC or battery demand headline.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

EXPORTChina added MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to its export control list effective immediately.

SUPPLYMountain Pass and Texas mine-to-magnet projects lose access to Chinese dual-use equipment and materials.

CHINABeijing cited national security retaliation for recent US blacklisting of Chinese defense firms.

NDFEБNo fresh neodymium oxide pricing data released after the controls announcement.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

POLICYExport controls cover ten US entities including Ball Aerospace, L3Harris and Oshkosh Defense.

GALLIUMGallium held at 277 USD/kg with no new Chinese export restriction layered on top.

GERMANIUMGermanium closed at 2674 USD/kg unchanged despite elevated US-China tension.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDDollar index climbed to 101.38, weighing on USD-denominated metal prices including copper.

CHINAChina PMI data remained unreleased overnight leaving domestic demand signals stale.

TRADEG7 critical minerals alliance platform announced June 17 received no fresh implementation update.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.470	▼ 1.08%	▼ 16.10%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	64.950	▼ 2.52%	▼ 4.74%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.880	▼ 1.05%	▼ 13.76%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.520	▼ 5.29%	▼ 15.12%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	18.590	▼ 0.16%	▲ 4.61%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.335	▲ 0.00%	▼ 11.84%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.390	▼ 4.48%	▼ 3.30%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.090	▼ 5.63%	▼ 2.68%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	19.930	▼ 3.77%	▲ 0.50%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.265	▼ 3.64%	▲ 3.92%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.250	▼ 10.82%	▼ 1.09%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.052	▼ 3.70%	▼ 11.86%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.047	▼ 2.08%	▼ 7.84%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.390	▼ 3.70%	▲ 0.00%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	3.150	▼ 4.55%	▼ 4.83%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.046	▼ 6.12%	▼ 17.86%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.510	▼ 1.92%	▲ 6.25%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.425	▲ 2.41%	▲ 2.41%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.445	▼ 9.18%	▼ 7.29%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.620	▲ 0.00%	▲ 1.64%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▲ 2.41%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 0.00%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 0.16%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▲ 1.05%

▼ Top Losers

ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▼ 10.82%

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▼ 9.18%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 6.12%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▼ 5.63%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▼ 5.29%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	58.900	▼ 2.31%	▲ 3.01%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	15.470	▼ 4.03%	▲ 2.59%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	108.890	▲ 1.70%	▲ 10.02%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	95.580	▼ 3.80%	▼ 7.78%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	4.150	▼ 3.49%	▼ 5.90%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	76.500	▼ 2.73%	▼ 4.90%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	97.840	▼ 3.89%	▲ 0.26%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	64.400	▼ 6.95%	▼ 2.92%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.310	▼ 2.55%	▼ 0.33%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 1.70%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 2.31%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 2.55%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 2.73%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 3.49%

▼ Top Losers

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 6.95%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 4.03%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 3.89%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 3.80%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 3.49%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	34.720	▼ 7.02%	▼ 8.29%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	39.030	▼ 6.94%	▼ 10.05%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	13.750	▼ 6.21%	▼ 4.58%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.730	▼ 0.47%	▲ 7.05%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.650	▲ 0.00%	▲ 8.64%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.00%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 0.47%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 6.21%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 6.94%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 7.02%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 7.02%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 6.94%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 6.21%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 0.47%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.00%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	17.290	▼ 10.88%	▲ 3.16%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.650	▼ 7.50%	▼ 8.60%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.030	▼ 6.41%	▼ 18.48%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.110	▼ 0.89%	▼ 5.13%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.89%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 6.41%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 7.50%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 10.88%

▼ Top Losers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 10.88%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 7.50%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 6.41%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.89%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Lithium, nickel and cobalt prices closed flat with zero fresh EV or gigafactory data to shift sentiment.

Rare Earths

No price data available this session.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

-0.09%

Best

Indium

-0.09%

Worst

Indium

-0.09%

Gallium and germanium prices held steady while antimony remained unchanged despite the broader US-China export control escalation.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.11%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

-0.41%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-1.81%

Uranium eased 0.41% on macro flows with no new contracting or production curtailment from major producers.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-3.60%

Best

Copper

-3.60%

Worst

Copper

-3.60%

Copper led base metals lower, falling 3.60% on USD strength and equity weakness absent any China demand or LME inventory surprise.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-2.24%

Best

Iron Ore

-0.36%

Worst

Silver

-6.02%

Oil and gas price moves were not reported overnight, leaving the energy transition cost narrative unchanged.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

GEOFurther US entities could be added to China’s export control list if Pentagon blacklists expand.

POLICYG7 critical minerals alliance implementation timeline remains the next scheduled policy catalyst.

SUPPLYMP Materials and USA Rare Earth statements on severed Chinese supplier ties require verification for actual exposure.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.