While You Slept/Critical Minerals archive← Wed 24 Jun 2026Fri 26 Jun 2026 →Free by email
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While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition  ·  AI Buildout  ·  The Materials That Power Both
PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗  ·  THURSDAY 25 JUNE 2026  ·  WYS EDITION 029
Data as of  Wednesday 24 June 2026 close  ·  Generated  25 June 2026  7:00 AM AEST  ·  S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017
Commodity Prices
Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals
↳ Background Context
Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite
Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets
Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium
Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum
Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron
Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.
Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy
Supply & Demand Signals
Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals
SUPPLY Nickel ▼ Bearish
Indonesia to boost nickel mine output
Indonesia plans significant rise in nickel-mine production later this year, reversing earlier quota tightening. This provides relief to local smelters but pressures global prices, with LME futures dropping up to 2.7%.
SUPPLY Cobalt ▲ Bullish
US sanctions close Canada's only cobalt refinery
US sanctions have shut down Canada's sole cobalt refinery, tightening supply in a market already dominated by DRC production. Prices remained flat at ~$56,290/t amid broader EV demand discussions.
PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish
China lithium prices slide on CATL restart chatter
Lithium prices in China declined amid reports of potential restarts at major producer CATL facilities. This follows recent demand signals but points to near-term oversupply concerns.
SUPPLY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish
Aclara secures environmental approval for Chile REE project
Aclara Resources received environmental OK for its rare earths project in Chile on June 23. This advances new non-Chinese supply amid ongoing export controls and geopolitical tensions.
POLICY Uranium ▲ Bullish
US launches $17.5B loan program for nuclear supply chain
US government announced major financing to accelerate nuclear buildout and uranium supply. Additional project approvals, including EnCore's South Dakota mine, signal strong policy support for domestic production.
POLICY Gallium ▲ Bullish
China tightens critical minerals grip; EU faces gallium shortages
Ongoing Chinese export restrictions on gallium and germanium are creating supply gaps for the EU, prompting global scramble for alternatives. This follows prior curbs and heightens price and availability risks.
Analysis
Overnight Briefing
Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index climbed 0.18% to 101.59 and the S&P 500 eased 0.10%, driving copper 2.45% lower to 5.9905 USD/lb and lithium carbonate 0.63% down to 157500 CNY/t with no offsetting demand data from Chinese PMI or EV sales releases. China's Ministry of Commerce placed MP Materials, operator of the 40,000 tpa Mountain Pass mine, and USA Rare Earth on the export control list, immediately barring Chinese exporters from shipping dual-use items and halting ongoing contracts to these US defense-linked entities. ASX names with non-Chinese rare-earth exposure such as Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources stand to see accelerated offtake interest as Western buyers accelerate diversification away from MOFCOM-controlled flows.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite
LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 0.63% to 157500 CNY/t on SMM data with no new CATL or BYD inventory figures released.
EVBNEF maintained its 23.3 million unit global passenger EV sales forecast for 2026 with no overnight gigafactory updates from LG or Panasonic.
NICKELNickel held flat at 17105 USD/t with LME inventory data showing no fresh Chinese port or smelter curtailments.
COBALTCobalt remained at 56290 USD/t with zero reported force majeure declarations from Glencore or Chinese refiners.
Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind
EXPORTMOFCOM added MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to the export control list effective June 22, blocking dual-use shipments from Chinese suppliers.
SUPPLYMountain Pass 40,000 tpa output faces no immediate feedstock disruption as prior equipment diversification has already reduced Chinese reliance.
CHINAEarlier 2025-2026 rare-earth export quotas remain suspended until November 2026 with no new MOFCOM quota announcements overnight.
NDFEБNeodymium oxide held at 176 USD/kg with no price reaction recorded on Fastmarkets after the MP Materials listing.
Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk
POLICYChina's finance ministry separately barred procurement from 46 US companies alongside the rare-earth export controls.
GALLIUMGallium stayed at 277 USD/kg on cached data with no new export licensing changes reported by MIIT.
GERMANIUMGermanium held at 2674 USD/kg with zero fresh antimony or tungsten quota adjustments from MOFCOM.
Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation
USDUSD Index rose 0.18% to 101.59, pressuring USD-denominated prices including copper and uranium.
CHINAChina PMI data remained unreleased overnight, leaving industrial output signals absent for battery and rare-earth demand.
TRADECNY/USD moved to 6.8014, up 0.17%, offering limited offset to the 2.45% copper price decline.
Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers
Medium Impact 2–4 years
Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk
CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.
Affects: battery
Low Impact 3–5 years
Solid-State Battery Commercialisation
Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.
Affects: battery
High Impact Active
China Critical Mineral Export Controls
China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.
Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery
Low Impact Ongoing
US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives
Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.
Affects: battery, rare_earth
Market Watch
ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium5.660▲ 3.47%▼ 12.65%—
MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron65.860▲ 1.40%▼ 7.80%—
LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium1.900▲ 1.06%▼ 15.18%—
IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel7.930▲ 5.45%▼ 11.89%—
WR1.AXWinsome ResourcesLithium————
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths19.340▲ 4.03%▲ 8.17%—
ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths0.355▲ 5.97%▼ 4.05%—
PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium9.700▲ 3.30%▼ 7.27%—
BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium1.120▲ 2.75%▼ 7.82%—
SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper19.670▼ 1.30%▼ 5.75%—
29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc0.260▼ 1.89%▼ 5.45%—
ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon7.590▲ 4.69%▼ 1.56%—
AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium0.053▲ 1.92%▼ 11.67%—
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium0.046▼ 2.13%▼ 9.80%—
GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium0.390▲ 0.00%▼ 4.88%—
VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium3.250▲ 3.17%▼ 6.34%—
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium0.046▲ 0.00%▼ 25.81%—
WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium0.535▲ 4.90%▲ 10.31%—
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium0.415▼ 2.35%▼ 2.35%—
GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium0.460▲ 3.37%▼ 4.17%—
PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium0.635▲ 2.42%▼ 4.51%—
ASX Materials · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 5.97%
IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▲ 5.45%
WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 4.90%
ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▲ 4.69%
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 4.03%
▼ Top Losers
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 2.35%
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 2.13%
29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▼ 1.89%
SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▼ 1.30%
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 0.00%
20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close
US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths56.510▼ 4.06%▼ 1.81%—
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE15.030▼ 2.84%▼ 0.07%—
CCJCamecoUranium106.640▼ 2.07%▲ 5.63%—
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron94.030▼ 1.62%▼ 10.75%—
LACLithium AmericasLithium3.940▼ 5.06%▼ 13.41%—
SQMSQMLithium75.580▼ 1.20%▼ 10.15%—
NEMNewmontGold/Copper94.040▼ 3.88%▼ 6.18%—
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper61.840▼ 3.98%▼ 9.60%—
VALEValeNickel/Iron14.840▼ 3.07%▼ 5.54%—
NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
SQMSQMLithium▲ 1.20%
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 1.62%
CCJCamecoUranium▲ 2.07%
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 2.84%
VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 3.07%
▼ Top Losers
LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 5.06%
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 4.06%
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 3.98%
NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 3.88%
VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 3.07%
9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close
TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc32.840▼ 5.41%▼ 17.59%—
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper36.750▼ 5.84%▼ 19.55%—
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper12.910▼ 6.11%▼ 15.79%—
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium14.340▼ 2.65%▼ 2.91%—
DML.TODenison MinesUranium4.510▼ 3.01%▼ 2.80%—
TSX · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 2.65%
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 3.01%
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 5.41%
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 5.84%
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 6.11%
▼ Top Losers
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 6.11%
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 5.84%
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 5.41%
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 3.01%
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 2.65%
5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close
HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt16.760▼ 3.07%▼ 10.85%—
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc7.480▼ 2.22%▼ 16.42%—
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE8.040▲ 0.12%▼ 22.17%—
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold1.100▼ 0.90%▼ 5.98%—
HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 0.12%
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.90%
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 2.22%
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 3.07%
▼ Top Losers
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 3.07%
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 2.22%
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.90%
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 0.12%
4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close
Calendar & Risks
Metal Category Scorecard
Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers
Battery Metals
5 metals tracked
⚑ Caution
-0.25%
Best
Cobalt
0.00%
Worst
Lithium Carb.
-0.63%
Lithium carbonate fell 0.63% with flat nickel and cobalt prices and no new gigafactory or EV sales data overnight.
Rare Earths
4 metals tracked
— No Change Data
No change data this session
4 metal price(s) available — no change data
China placed MP Materials and USA Rare Earth on the export control list, a largely symbolic step given existing supply-chain diversification.
Strategic Metals
4 metals tracked
◆ Neutral
-0.09%
Best
Indium
-0.09%
Worst
Indium
-0.09%
Gallium, germanium and antimony prices were unchanged with no new MIIT or MOFCOM licensing announcements.
Energy Metals
2 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+1.62%
Best
Nat. Gas
+3.53%
Worst
Uranium (U3O8)
-0.29%
Uranium eased 0.29% to 85.5 USD/lb with no fresh contracting or production data from major producers.
Base Metals
6 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-2.45%
Best
Copper
-2.45%
Worst
Copper
-2.45%
Copper dropped 2.45% to 5.9905 USD/lb driven by USD strength and absent China industrial output figures.
Competing Energy
5 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-4.00%
Best
Iron Ore
-0.25%
Worst
Silver
-7.34%
No oil, gas or coal price moves were tied to critical minerals developments in the overnight window.
Economic & Industry Calendar
China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA
Time (AEST) Ctry Event Impact Prior Forecast
00:30AUWestpac Consumer Confidence ChangeHigh3.5None
00:30AUWestpac Consumer Confidence IndexMedium83None
01:30AUNAB Business ConfidenceHigh-23None
01:30AURBA BulletinMediumNoneNone
03:00CNBalance of TradeHigh84.892.1
03:00CNExports YoYHigh14.115
03:00CNImports YoYHigh25.325
12:15USADP Employment Change WeeklyMedium30.5None
12:30USBalance of TradeMedium-56.6-56.1
12:30USExportsMedium318.8None
12:30USImportsMedium375.4None
14:00USExisting Home SalesHigh4.044.07
14:00USExisting Home Sales MoMMedium0.7None
16:00USEIA Short-Term Energy OutlookMediumNoneNone
16:30EUECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumNoneNone
20:30USAPI Crude Oil Stock ChangeMedium-6.75-3.4
Risks & Watch Items
Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch
POLICYFurther US entity listings or Chinese retaliation measures remain possible after the June 22 MOFCOM action.
GEOMP Materials Mountain Pass output exposure to any future tightening of Chinese equipment or chemical export rules.
SUPPLYPotential acceleration of US DoD funding for USA Rare Earth Round Top project following the export control designation.
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