WYS Critical Minerals · Mon 13 Jul 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · MONDAY 13 JULY 2026 · WYS EDITION 041

Data as of Friday 10 July 2026 close · Generated 13 July 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017

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        Monday morning — all prices reflect Friday 10 July 2026 close
      

        AU market holidays accounted for. Live data resumes next trading session.
      

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

DEMAND Lithium ▲ Bullish

JPMorgan: Global Lithium Demand to Rise 16% YoY in 2026

JPMorgan Global Research projects strong 16% year-on-year growth in lithium demand for 2026, driven by EV and battery expansion. This bullish demand signal contrasts with recent oversupply pressures and could support prices if supply growth lags.

PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish

Lithium Prices Dip 5% Amid Oversupply Concerns

Battery-grade lithium prices fell 5.17% to $22.86/kg this week due to oversupply from Australian and Chinese projects. Analysts are reassessing near-term supply-demand balance as additional capacity comes online.

POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC Cobalt Export Quotas Tighten 2026 Supply

DRC maintains strict annual export quotas of 96,600 tonnes for 2026-2027, roughly half prior volumes, to address oversupply. This policy-driven constraint is expected to sustain market deficits through 2030.

SUPPLY Graphite ▼ Bearish

Graphite Market Faces Persistent Oversupply in 2026

China's dominance (90%+ anode production) and rapid capacity expansion outpacing demand have led to multi-year price lows. EV demand growth of ~18% YoY is insufficient to absorb excess supply near-term.

PRICE Germanium ▲ Bullish

Germanium Prices Surge 28% in China to $3,417/kg

China domestic germanium prices jumped 27.8% month-over-month as of July 1, 2026, amid export restrictions and supply tightness. Western warehouse premiums remain elevated but narrowed slightly.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

China Sulfuric Acid Export Ban Adds Copper Supply Pressure

China's May 2026 sulfuric acid export suspension, tied to smelter constraints, is tightening copper production feedstock. Combined with potential US tariffs, this supports bullish supply risk outlook.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight macro showed USD Index at 100.97 (+0.03%) and CNY/USD at 6.7667 (-0.37%), with S&P 500 at 7575 (+0.42%), producing no immediate pricing pressure on critical minerals beyond minor nickel and copper gains at LME. Lithium carbonate fell 2.21% to 155000 CNY/t while lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t and spodumene SC6 slipped 1.98% to 2230 USD/t. The moves reflect thin overnight liquidity rather than any demand shift. Syrah Resources declared force majeure at the Balama graphite mine in Mozambique after civil unrest forced suspension of new material output, leaving no quantified tonnage loss or restart date in reports and marking the sole Tier 1 supply event. No other lithium, cobalt, nickel or rare earth operations recorded outages or policy changes. Syrah Resources (ASX:SYR) faces direct exposure through the Balama declaration while downstream graphite processors monitor for any small-mesh supply tightening; no other ASX names recorded overnight operational or offtake updates tied to the price snapshot.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

GRAPHITESyrah Resources declared force majeure at Balama graphite mine in Mozambique after civil unrest halted new material production.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 2.21% to 155000 CNY/t while lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t on prior close.

LITHIUMSpodumene SC6 declined 1.98% to 2230 USD/t with no new Australian or Chinese mine data released overnight.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINANo new MOFCOM rare earth export licensing announcements or quota adjustments occurred overnight.

NDFEBNeodymium oxide held at 176 USD/kg with no fresh Chinese domestic price moves from SMM or Antaike.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium remained at 273 USD/kg with zero movement and no new Chinese export control filings.

GERMANIUMGermanium stayed at 3230 USD/kg and antimony at 25450 USD/t with no policy updates.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.03% to 100.97 while AUD/USD ticked up 0.06% to 0.6948, leaving LME nickel and copper slightly firmer.

CHINAChina PMI data release was absent overnight, producing no fresh industrial output signal for battery metals.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.630	▲ 0.43%	▼ 9.39%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	59.700	▲ 2.07%	▼ 5.58%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.490	▲ 1.02%	▼ 13.62%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	6.890	▲ 1.62%	▼ 6.89%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.630	▼ 1.36%	▼ 8.07%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.390	▲ 9.86%	▲ 4.00%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.060	▲ 4.14%	▲ 1.31%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.350	▲ 6.72%	▲ 16.88%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.830	▲ 3.75%	▼ 2.94%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.245	▲ 4.26%	▼ 3.92%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.690	▲ 3.08%	▼ 4.97%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.046	▲ 6.98%	▼ 8.00%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.045	▲ 4.65%	▲ 2.27%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.325	▼ 1.52%	▼ 10.96%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.870	▼ 0.69%	▼ 7.12%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.043	▲ 0.00%	▼ 8.51%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.475	▲ 5.56%	▼ 5.94%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.355	▲ 1.43%	▼ 14.46%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.460	▲ 6.98%	▲ 5.75%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.535	▲ 0.00%	▼ 13.71%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 9.86%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▲ 6.98%

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 6.98%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 6.72%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 5.56%

▼ Top Losers

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▼ 1.52%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 1.36%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▼ 0.69%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 0.00%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 0.00%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	52.210	▲ 0.97%	▼ 6.78%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	13.580	▲ 0.67%	▼ 6.34%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	95.990	▲ 0.26%	▼ 5.76%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	90.540	▲ 1.17%	▼ 4.62%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.320	▼ 6.74%	▼ 13.77%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	73.190	▼ 1.21%	▼ 1.15%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	95.290	▲ 0.51%	▲ 2.02%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	61.520	▲ 1.64%	▼ 2.18%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.460	▲ 1.69%	▼ 3.86%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 1.69%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 1.64%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 1.17%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 0.97%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 0.67%

▼ Top Losers

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 6.74%

SQMSQMLithium▼ 1.21%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 0.26%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 0.51%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 0.67%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	34.860	▲ 1.07%	▲ 0.87%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	39.260	▲ 0.38%	▲ 1.34%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	12.840	▲ 2.23%	▼ 1.46%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.700	▲ 2.01%	▲ 2.85%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.580	▲ 2.00%	▲ 5.29%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 2.23%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 2.01%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 2.00%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 1.07%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 0.38%

▼ Top Losers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 0.38%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 1.07%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 2.00%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 2.01%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 2.23%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	14.950	▲ 1.84%	▼ 1.52%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.160	▲ 3.02%	▲ 3.17%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.620	▲ 1.33%	▲ 2.14%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.080	▼ 3.57%	▼ 5.26%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 3.02%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.84%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.33%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 3.57%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 3.57%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.33%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.84%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 3.02%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

-0.10%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.40%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-2.21%

Graphite supply risk at Syrah Balama stands as sole overnight event while lithium prices showed mixed 2-3% moves on thin volume.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

No Chinese policy shifts or NdFeB price changes overnight; neodymium oxide flat at 176 USD/kg.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Gallium, germanium and antimony prices unchanged with zero new export control announcements from China.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.08%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.23%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-2.39%

Uranium U3O8 edged 0.23% higher to 85.75 USD/lb with no contracting or mine news.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.60%

Best

Copper

+0.30%

Worst

Aluminium

-1.95%

Copper rose 0.30% to 6.2335 USD/lb and nickel 0.30% to 16655 USD/t on modest LME positioning.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.55%

Best

Iron Ore

+0.15%

Worst

Silver

-0.94%

No oil or coal price data released overnight to alter energy transition cost narratives.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

GEOMonitor Mozambique civil unrest follow-up for any extension of Syrah Balama outage beyond current force majeure.

POLICYWatch late-July Indonesian nickel RKAB quota review for any confirmed production cap changes.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.