WYS Critical Minerals · Tue 14 Jul 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · TUESDAY 14 JULY 2026 · WYS EDITION 042

Data as of Monday 13 July 2026 close · Generated 14 July 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

DEMAND Lithium ▲ Bullish

JPMorgan: Global Lithium Demand to Rise 16% YoY in 2026

JPMorgan Global Research projects strong 16% year-on-year growth in lithium demand for 2026, driven by EV and battery expansion. This bullish demand signal contrasts with recent oversupply pressures and could support prices if supply growth lags.

PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish

Lithium Prices Dip 5% Amid Oversupply Concerns

Battery-grade lithium prices fell 5.17% to $22.86/kg this week due to oversupply from Australian and Chinese projects. Analysts are reassessing near-term supply-demand balance as additional capacity comes online.

POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC Cobalt Export Quotas Tighten 2026 Supply

DRC maintains strict annual export quotas of 96,600 tonnes for 2026-2027, roughly half prior volumes, to address oversupply. This policy-driven constraint is expected to sustain market deficits through 2030.

SUPPLY Graphite ▼ Bearish

Graphite Market Faces Persistent Oversupply in 2026

China's dominance (90%+ anode production) and rapid capacity expansion outpacing demand have led to multi-year price lows. EV demand growth of ~18% YoY is insufficient to absorb excess supply near-term.

PRICE Germanium ▲ Bullish

Germanium Prices Surge 28% in China to $3,417/kg

China domestic germanium prices jumped 27.8% month-over-month as of July 1, 2026, amid export restrictions and supply tightness. Western warehouse premiums remain elevated but narrowed slightly.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

China Sulfuric Acid Export Ban Adds Copper Supply Pressure

China's May 2026 sulfuric acid export suspension, tied to smelter constraints, is tightening copper production feedstock. Combined with potential US tariffs, this supports bullish supply risk outlook.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index rose 0.34% to 101.31 while S&P 500 fell 0.79%, tightening financial conditions that typically compress industrial metal demand; lithium hydroxide nevertheless climbed 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t and copper added 0.65% to 6.274 USD/lb, showing selective resilience amid flat cobalt and neodymium oxide. No mine outages, export bans, or gigafactory offtake shifts occurred between 13-14 July 2026, leaving the modest nickel decline of 0.51% to 16570 USD/t and lithium carbonate drop of 0.65% to 154000 CNY/t as the only observable price action. ASX-listed copper developers such as Metal Energy Corp remain exposed solely through exploration permits at Highland Valley with zero near-term production impact, while nickel and lithium names face continued inventory pressure without fresh supply signals to alter guidance.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t on thin spot trading with no new refinery output data.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 0.65% to 154000 CNY/t as downstream inventory destocking continued from mid-January levels.

NICKELNickel closed 0.51% lower at 16570 USD/t with no HPAL or sulphide mine curtailments reported.

EVNo new EV sales releases or CATL/BYD offtake revisions emerged overnight.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEBNeodymium oxide held flat at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese magnet demand data released.

CHINANo new MIIT export quotas or rare earth separation capacity adjustments were announced.

SUPPLYNo force majeure or production halts at Bayan Obo or Mount Weld operations overnight.

MAGNETNdFeB magnet feedstock pricing remained unchanged in the absence of fresh SMM data.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium traded flat at 288.82 USD/kg with no new Chinese export licence restrictions.

GERMANIUMGermanium held at 3417.36 USD/kg absent any policy updates from Ministry of Commerce.

ANTIMONYAntimony closed unchanged at 25450 USD/t with zero reported smelter curtailments in Hunan.

EXPORTNo fresh export controls on indium or germanium were issued overnight.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index climbed 0.34% to 101.31, pressuring dollar-denominated commodity bids.

CHINAChina PMI figures remained at prior 50.3 official reading with no overnight revision.

RATESAUD/USD fell 0.33% to 0.6919, raising local-currency costs for Australian producers.

TRADECNY/USD eased 0.08% to 6.7709, offering marginal relief to Chinese importers.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.480	▼ 3.24%	▼ 12.67%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	58.040	▼ 2.78%	▼ 8.97%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.425	▼ 4.36%	▼ 14.67%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	6.690	▼ 2.90%	▼ 9.84%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.250	▼ 2.29%	▼ 8.86%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.365	▼ 6.41%	▲ 5.80%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.690	▼ 3.68%	▼ 2.61%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.300	▼ 3.70%	▲ 9.24%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.570	▼ 1.38%	▼ 0.21%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.240	▼ 2.04%	▼ 5.88%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.470	▼ 3.29%	▼ 7.57%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.045	▼ 2.17%	▼ 8.16%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.044	▼ 2.22%	▼ 2.22%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.310	▼ 4.62%	▼ 15.07%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.740	▼ 4.53%	▼ 10.46%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.042	▼ 2.33%	▼ 8.70%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.470	▼ 1.05%	▼ 6.00%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.330	▼ 7.04%	▼ 19.51%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.445	▼ 3.26%	▼ 5.32%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.510	▼ 4.67%	▼ 15.70%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 1.05%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 1.38%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 2.04%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▲ 2.17%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 2.22%

▼ Top Losers

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 7.04%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 6.41%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 4.67%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▼ 4.62%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▼ 4.53%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	49.500	▼ 5.19%	▼ 8.81%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	13.050	▼ 3.90%	▼ 8.23%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	90.200	▼ 6.03%	▼ 7.38%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	89.850	▼ 0.76%	▼ 3.75%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.140	▼ 5.42%	▼ 18.02%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	71.940	▼ 1.71%	▼ 3.07%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	93.100	▼ 2.30%	▼ 0.21%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	59.970	▼ 2.52%	▼ 0.93%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.180	▼ 1.94%	▼ 4.83%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.76%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 1.71%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 1.94%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 2.30%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 2.52%

▼ Top Losers

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 6.03%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 5.42%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 5.19%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 3.90%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 2.52%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	33.870	▼ 2.84%	▼ 1.54%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	35.970	▼ 8.38%	▼ 8.59%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	12.620	▼ 1.71%	▼ 2.17%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	12.770	▼ 6.79%	▼ 6.52%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.300	▼ 6.11%	▼ 4.87%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.71%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 2.84%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 6.11%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 6.79%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 8.38%

▼ Top Losers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 8.38%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 6.79%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 6.11%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 2.84%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.71%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	14.950	▲ 1.84%	▼ 1.52%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.160	▲ 3.02%	▲ 3.17%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.620	▲ 1.33%	▲ 2.14%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.080	▼ 3.57%	▼ 5.26%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 3.02%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.84%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.33%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 3.57%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 3.57%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.33%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.84%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 3.02%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.45%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.40%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-0.65%

Lithium hydroxide gained 3.40% while carbonate and nickel eased modestly on thin overnight volume with no supply or demand catalysts.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide remained unchanged at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese policy or magnet demand releases.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

+0.17%

Best

Indium

+0.17%

Worst

Indium

+0.17%

Gallium, germanium and antimony prices were flat with zero new export controls or smelter news.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.77%

Best

Nat. Gas

-1.77%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-1.77%

Uranium held at 85.75 USD/lb and vanadium at 13.47 USD/kg absent any contracting or policy moves.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.47%

Best

Copper

+0.65%

Worst

Zinc

-1.36%

Copper rose 0.65% to 6.274 USD/lb while LME nickel declined 0.51% with no inventory or China demand surprises.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+2.71%

Best

Brent Crude

+9.59%

Worst

Silver

-3.15%

S&P 500 decline of 0.79% alongside higher USD offers no fresh support for energy transition demand narrative.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYSulphuric acid market tightness continues to lift leaching costs for copper, nickel HPAL and lithium refineries by up to 33% since prior tensions.

MACROUSD strength at 101.31 may cap further gains in lithium hydroxide and copper despite today's modest rises.

GEOExploration-stage Highland Valley copper permit carries no immediate production implications for ASX names.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.