WYS Critical Minerals · Tue 11 Aug 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · TUESDAY 11 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 063

Data as of Monday 10 August 2026 close · Generated 11 August 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Lithium ▲ Bullish

CATL Jianxiawo Mine Remains Closed

CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine in China continues to be suspended pending environmental approvals, contributing to ongoing supply tightness. This follows earlier temporary disruptions and aligns with rising lithium prices seen earlier in 2026 amid low inventories and strong demand from batteries and energy storage.

PRICE Nickel ▼ Bearish

Nickel Slides Below $17K on Supply Outlook

Nickel prices fell to around $16,700-16,900 per tonne on August 10, 2026, pressured by expectations of increased Indonesian supply. Market remains in structural deficit longer-term but short-term sentiment weighed by quota expansions.

PRICE Copper ● Neutral

Copper Holds Steady Near $6.46/lb

Copper traded at approximately 6.46 USD per pound on August 10, showing minor gains amid broader metals activity. AI data center power infrastructure demand continues to underpin long-term bullish fundamentals for the metal.

PRICE Cobalt ● Neutral

Cobalt Prices Flat at Multi-Year Highs

Cobalt traded flat at 56,290 USD per tonne on August 7, 2026, remaining 68.86% higher year-over-year. No major supply disruptions reported in recent days, with prices supported by prior tightness.

PRICE Rare Earths ● Neutral

Neodymium Prices Stable Post-Volatility

Neodymium rare earth prices held flat at 975,000 CNY per tonne on August 7, 2026, down modestly month-over-month but significantly higher YoY. No new policy or export signals in the immediate period.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index climbed 0.22% to 99.82 while AUD/USD eased 0.08%, lifting USD-denominated prices for tungsten APT to 665.57 USD/mtu (+9.60%) and copper to 6.636 USD/lb (+1.00%) even as nickel slipped 0.48% to 16888 USD/t. Lithium carbonate gained 1.23% to 144500 CNY/t but lithium hydroxide fell 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t, showing divergent spot flows without any macro-driven demand surge. Para 2: No Tier 1 mine outages or export bans emerged in the last 12-18 hours, leaving LME copper stocks at 218 kt after a >40% draw since May as the dominant physical tightness signal. Para 3: Orion CMC’s selection for a stake in Lifezone’s Kabanga nickel project exposes ASX-linked nickel names to Tanzanian permitting timelines while ongoing Chinese rare earth export licensing without fresh MIIT quota changes keeps magnet supply chains under 2025 policy constraints.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate rose 1.23% to 144500 CNY/t while lithium hydroxide dropped 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t on thin spot volumes.

NICKELNickel traded down 0.48% to 16888 USD/t with no new offtake announcements from CATL or BYD.

EVBYD filed additional dual-electrolyte cathode patents targeting 2027 solid-state trial production.

GIGAFACTORYNo new gigafactory announcements or cancellations emerged from CATL, LG or Samsung SDI overnight.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEБNeodymium oxide held at 176 USD/kg with no fresh Chinese pricing movement.

EXPORTChina’s 2025 dual-use export licensing regime on rare earths saw no new entity additions or quota revisions from MIIT overnight.

SUPPLYOngoing 2026 measures targeting certain US firms continue without overnight policy shifts.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

TUNGSTENTungsten APT surged 9.60% to 665.57 USD/mtu on limited spot availability.

GALLIUMGallium remained at 237.42 USD/kg with no export control updates.

GERMANIUMGermanium held steady at 3104.31 USD/kg absent new MOFCOM announcements.

ANTIMONYAntimony traded unchanged at 25450 USD/t with no supply-chain alerts.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.22% to 99.82, supporting USD-priced metal values.

CHINACNY/USD eased 0.04% to 6.7447 with no China PMI release overnight.

TRADES&P 500 slipped 0.06% to 7753 amid continued China-US rare earth licensing friction.

ENERGYUranium U3O8 stayed at 86.5 USD/lb with no contracting updates.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.720	▲ 3.06%	▲ 12.11%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	64.830	▲ 1.03%	▲ 12.18%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.200	▲ 1.69%	▲ 21.83%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.720	▲ 3.62%	▲ 14.20%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.500	▲ 1.54%	▲ 19.48%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.360	▲ 0.00%	▲ 7.46%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.380	▲ 2.27%	▲ 17.95%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.410	▲ 5.62%	▲ 18.99%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	21.150	▲ 0.24%	▲ 14.26%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.320	▲ 1.59%	▲ 30.61%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.350	▲ 3.81%	▲ 27.38%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.046	▲ 2.22%	▲ 15.00%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.047	▲ 4.44%	▲ 11.90%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.335	▲ 6.35%	▲ 24.07%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.970	▲ 3.85%	▲ 19.76%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.045	▲ 2.27%	▲ 18.42%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.400	▲ 3.90%	▲ 23.08%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.310	▲ 5.08%	▲ 26.53%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.630	▲ 8.62%	▲ 22.33%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.500	▲ 7.53%	▲ 21.95%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 8.62%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▲ 7.53%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 6.35%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 5.62%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▲ 5.08%

▼ Top Losers

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 0.00%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▼ 0.24%

MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron▼ 1.03%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 1.54%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▼ 1.59%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	54.660	▲ 6.95%	▲ 31.20%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.290	▲ 1.06%	▲ 22.03%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	97.310	▼ 0.08%	▲ 10.29%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	101.910	▲ 0.80%	▲ 4.87%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.250	▲ 0.62%	▲ 12.46%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	72.840	▲ 1.24%	▲ 6.44%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	117.260	▲ 3.79%	▲ 22.45%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	70.510	▲ 1.28%	▲ 11.14%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.890	▲ 1.22%	▼ 0.67%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 6.95%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 3.79%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 1.28%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 1.24%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 1.22%

▼ Top Losers

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 0.08%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 0.62%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.80%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 1.06%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 1.22%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	37.850	▲ 0.50%	▲ 9.58%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	44.420	▲ 1.72%	▲ 16.99%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	15.820	▲ 2.53%	▲ 23.59%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.330	▼ 1.31%	▲ 14.37%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.510	▲ 0.45%	▲ 19.00%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 2.53%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 1.72%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 0.50%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.45%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 1.31%

▼ Top Losers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 1.31%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.45%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 0.50%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 1.72%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 2.53%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	19.100	▲ 1.54%	▲ 16.04%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.280	▲ 0.81%	▲ 15.28%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.600	▲ 2.32%	▲ 3.24%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.140	▲ 1.79%	▼ 1.72%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 2.32%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 1.79%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.54%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.81%

▼ Top Losers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.81%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.54%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 1.79%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 2.32%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.17%

Best

Lithium Carb.

+1.23%

Worst

Lithium Hydroxide

-2.10%

Lithium carbonate rose 1.23% while hydroxide fell 2.10% with no gigafactory or offtake news overnight.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide unchanged at 176 USD/kg as Chinese export licensing continued without new quota moves.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+9.60%

Best

Tungsten (APT)

+9.60%

Worst

Tungsten (APT)

+9.60%

Tungsten APT jumped 9.60% to 665.57 USD/mtu while gallium and germanium held flat with no export control updates.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+2.21%

Best

Nat. Gas

+4.43%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

0.00%

Uranium U3O8 remained at 86.5 USD/lb with no new contracting or supply signals.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.00%

Best

Copper

+1.00%

Worst

Copper

+1.00%

Copper gained 1.00% to 6.636 USD/lb as LME stocks sat at 218 kt after >40% draw since May.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+3.23%

Best

Crude Oil (WTI)

+5.32%

Worst

Iron Ore

-0.87%

No oil or coal price moves reported that alter the energy transition cost narrative.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
14:30	AU	Cash Rate	High	4.35%	4.35%
14:30	AU	RBA Monetary Policy Statement	High	—	—
14:30	AU	RBA Rate Statement	High	—	—
15:30	AU	RBA Press Conference	High	—	—

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYLME copper inventory draws of >40% since May to 218 kt continue to signal physical tightness.

POLICYChinese rare earth export licensing regime from 2025 remains in force with entity-specific additions still active.

GEOOrion CMC selection for Kabanga nickel stake introduces new permitting timeline risk in Tanzania.

MACROUSD Index at 99.82 may continue to influence AUD-denominated producer margins.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.