WYS Critical Minerals · Wed 12 Aug 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 064

Data as of Tuesday 11 August 2026 close · Generated 12 August 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

China export controls split heavy rare earths market

China's tightened export controls on heavy rare earths including yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium have created price divergence between Chinese and Western markets. Tighter supply outside China increases geopolitical risks in critical supply chains. Dated August 11, 2026.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

Copper hits near-record highs on Chile and DRC disruptions

Copper futures at $6.62/lb amid 27% YoY drop at Chile's El Teniente and DRC export ban on copper concentrates. Supply tightness drives rally despite softer demand signals; ICSG cut 2026 growth forecast. Policy uncertainty adds to concentrate market strain.

POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC export ban on copper and cobalt concentrates

June 29, 2026 interministerial order bans exports of copper and cobalt concentrates from DRC, the top cobalt producer. Move increases policy risk and potential near-term supply constraints, though analysts see limited immediate global impact.

POLICY Gallium ▲ Bullish

China expands export bans on gallium, germanium, graphite

Beijing expanded export controls on gallium, germanium, and graphite alongside sulphuric acid and antimony bans. Actions follow prior restrictions and heighten Western supply chain vulnerabilities for tech and defense applications.

POLICY Graphite ▲ Bullish

China expands export bans including graphite

Expanded Chinese export restrictions now cover graphite in addition to gallium and germanium. US responds with Pentagon deals for domestic graphite purification facilities to secure supply for batteries and defense.

SUPPLY Rare Earths ● Neutral

US advances domestic rare earth and graphite processing

Pentagon agreements with REalloys, Titan Mining, and others to build rare earth separation and graphite purification facilities at military sites. Aims to stockpile materials and reduce reliance on Chinese supply amid export controls.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index at 99.83 and CNY/USD at 6.745 showed negligible overnight shifts, leaving critical minerals prices driven by physical supply rather than currency or equity macro flows. Copper held near record levels above $14,000/t as the sole Tier-1 event dominated pricing. Indonesia’s Gresik smelter, jointly owned by Mitsubishi Materials and PT Freeport Indonesia and processing Grasberg ore, halted operations on August 8-9 due to a boiler leak with no restart date, directly tightening refined copper availability from the combined 400kt cathode capacity of Gresik and Manyar. Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg output recovery from the 2025 mudslide remains on track for end-2027 only, amplifying the refined supply gap. ASX-listed copper producers with Indonesian offtake exposure face immediate contract delays while tungsten prices jumped 9.60% to 665.57 USD/mtu on separate supply tightness unrelated to the copper outage.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium hydroxide fell 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t while carbonate rose 0.17% to 144750 CNY/t with no new EV battery installation data overnight.

EVH1 2026 global EV battery installations reached 608.5 GWh, up 20% YoY, led by CATL at 242.7 GWh but no fresh offtake contracts reported.

NICKELNickel closed at 16820 USD/t, down 0.74%, with no mine or smelter disruptions in the last 18 hours.

COBALTCobalt held steady at 56290 USD/t with zero price movement and no DRC supply updates.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEBNeodymium oxide remained cached at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese magnet demand or export policy changes.

CHINANo new rare earth quotas or licensing adjustments emerged from Beijing overnight.

SUPPLYGlobal rare earth supply chain reported zero Tier-1 outages in the prior 12-18 hours.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

TUNGSTENTungsten APT surged 9.60% to 665.57 USD/mtu on unreported supply constraints.

GALLIUMGallium stayed at 237.42 USD/kg with no export control announcements from China.

GERMANIUMGermanium held at 3104.31 USD/kg absent any policy or supply developments.

ANTIMONYAntimony closed unchanged at 25450 USD/t with no new strategic stockpile or export measures.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.02% to 99.83, providing no material support or pressure on critical minerals pricing.

CHINAChina PMI data remained unreleased overnight, leaving domestic industrial demand signals flat.

ENERGYUranium U3O8 ticked up 0.35% to 86.8 USD/lb with no contracting or reactor news.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.680	▼ 0.85%	▲ 12.77%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	65.220	▲ 0.60%	▲ 12.49%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.180	▼ 1.67%	▲ 22.28%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.800	▲ 1.04%	▲ 13.54%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.710	▲ 1.27%	▲ 18.59%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.355	▼ 1.39%	▲ 7.58%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.650	▲ 2.60%	▲ 13.06%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.465	▲ 3.90%	▲ 20.08%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	21.320	▲ 0.80%	▲ 12.51%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.315	▼ 1.56%	▲ 21.15%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.380	▲ 0.41%	▲ 21.98%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.047	▲ 2.17%	▲ 11.90%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.046	▼ 2.13%	▲ 4.55%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.335	▲ 0.00%	▲ 11.67%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	3.070	▲ 3.37%	▲ 20.39%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.057	▲ 26.67%	▲ 46.15%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.390	▼ 2.50%	▲ 16.42%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.310	▲ 0.00%	▲ 19.23%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.630	▲ 0.00%	▲ 21.15%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.505	▲ 1.00%	▲ 18.82%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▲ 26.67%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 3.90%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▲ 3.37%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▲ 2.60%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▲ 2.17%

▼ Top Losers

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 2.50%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 2.13%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 1.67%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▼ 1.56%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 1.39%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	55.240	▲ 1.06%	▲ 33.53%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.780	▲ 3.43%	▲ 29.20%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	98.730	▲ 1.46%	▲ 14.30%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	100.990	▼ 0.90%	▲ 4.27%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.250	▲ 0.00%	▲ 13.24%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	72.220	▼ 0.85%	▲ 7.69%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	117.210	▼ 0.04%	▲ 25.08%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	68.870	▼ 2.33%	▲ 9.96%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.320	▼ 3.83%	▼ 4.91%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 3.43%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 1.46%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 1.06%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 0.00%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 0.04%

▼ Top Losers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 3.83%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 2.33%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.90%

SQMSQMLithium▼ 0.85%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 0.04%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	36.910	▼ 2.48%	▲ 3.65%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	44.140	▼ 0.63%	▲ 13.30%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	15.660	▼ 1.01%	▲ 18.19%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.670	▲ 2.37%	▲ 12.59%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.590	▲ 1.77%	▲ 12.50%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 2.37%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 1.77%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 0.63%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.01%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 2.48%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 2.48%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.01%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 0.63%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 1.77%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 2.37%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	18.890	▼ 1.10%	▲ 16.10%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.330	▲ 0.54%	▲ 15.90%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.725	▲ 1.45%	▲ 4.62%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.150	▲ 0.88%	▼ 0.86%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.45%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.88%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.54%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.10%

▼ Top Losers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.10%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.54%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.88%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.45%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.53%

Best

Lithium Carb.

+0.17%

Worst

Lithium Hydroxide

-2.10%

Lithium hydroxide declined 2.10% while nickel slipped 0.74% with EV battery data already released days earlier and no new gigafactory news.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide and other REE prices remained unchanged with zero Chinese policy or magnet demand updates overnight.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+9.60%

Best

Tungsten (APT)

+9.60%

Worst

Tungsten (APT)

+9.60%

Tungsten APT rose 9.60% while gallium, germanium and antimony showed no export control or supply moves.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.61%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.35%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-1.57%

Uranium edged 0.35% higher to 86.8 USD/lb with no new contracting activity reported.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.39%

Best

Aluminium

+0.73%

Worst

Lead

-0.19%

Copper prices held near records above $14,000/t after the Gresik smelter outage delayed shipments from the Grasberg operation.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.90%

Best

Brent Crude

+1.69%

Worst

Silver

-0.42%

No oil, gas or coal price moves were flagged as immediate drivers for the energy transition metals complex.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
22:30	US	Core CPI m/m	High	0.0%	0.2%
22:30	US	Core CPI y/y	High	2.6%	2.5%
22:30	US	CPI m/m	High	-0.4%	0.1%
22:30	US	CPI y/y	High	3.5%	3.4%

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYManyar smelter restart targeted for September 2026 will determine whether Indonesian cathode output reaches the projected 400kt in 2026.

GEONo new export controls from Indonesia, DRC or China emerged overnight but prior measures remain in force.

MACROS&P 500 fell 0.32% while critical minerals pricing showed no equity-market correlation in the overnight window.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.